Trump's Tariffs May Dim Solar Sector's Future As Energy Demand Spikes

Forbes

01-04-2025

PALMETTO BAY, FL - JANUARY 23: Roger Garbey, from the Goldin Solar company, installs a solar panel ... More system on the roof of a home a day after the Trump administration announced it will impose duties of as much as 30 percent on solar equipment made abroad on January 23, 2018 in Palmetto Bay, Florida. Daren Goldin the owner of the company said, 'the tariffs will be disruptive to the American solar industry and the jobs they create.' (Photo by)
Analysts say the stock market took a nosedive on Friday because investors are worried about the tariffs getting even steeper and how they'll affect the economy. The Dow dropped by a whopping 700 points.
Donald Trump's tariffs will raise prices, create market inefficiencies and stunt economic growth. And guess what? Trump will announce new tariffs on Wednesday or ones that hit back at countries that hit us back. That worries the U.S. solar industry. Consider that solar panel prices are rapidly declining. But here's the catch: They're still pricier here because of those old taxes on solar imports. More tariffs add fuel to the fire just as we ramp up our clean energy game to meet the growing demand from data centers and artificial intelligence.
"So, that's the argument against additional tariffs and duties. This country will feel that pain. That will only get worse as we build out more data centers, electrify more of our economy and heating moves from gas to electricity, and we get more electric cars on the road,' says Mike Hall, chief executive officer of Anza, which aims to expand the use of renewables using data and analytics.
We had a Zoom call, and he explained how tariffs and duties work. The U.S. president can charge tariffs on countries and industries under emergency provisions. U.S. companies can also ask the U.S. Department of Commerce to investigate unfair trade practices. The department will look into those claims against other countries—less political than just giving the president full discretion. However, Hall said the Commerce Department has put duties on every case involving the solar industry so far.
We don't know what Trump will do with regard to tariffs. If the past is prologue, he will change his mind multiple times. According to his administration, the European Union is first up next week. However, the president also has his eye on Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, and China. He said they are all mistreating this country.
For more than 10 years, though, the United States has tried to wean itself off China's solar panels using import taxes and incentives to build plants domestically. Trump merely heightened this particular battle, although the escalation affected solar build-outs in the United States.
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange May 31,2019 in New York. - Wall Street stocks ... More closed out a downcast May on an especially negative note on Friday, falling hard after President Donald Trump announced new tariff measures on Mexico. Major indices were in the red the entire session after Trump unveiled his latest trade broadside on Twitter Thursday night, vowing a string of gradual tariff increases to pressure Mexico into cracking down on illegal immigration into the United States. (Photo by Don Emmert / AFP) (Photo credit should read DON EMMERT/AFP via Getty Images)
China may be the world's top solar panel maker, but the U.S. doesn't use its stuff here. We get it mostly from Southeast Asia—countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia. And according to Hall, no country is safe from new tariffs. 'Companies have already reoriented a number of times to deal with existing tariffs and duties. And every time we must reorient, the price goes up and we pay more relative to the rest of the world.'
So, U.S. solar prices were going down in late 2024, but they started going up again in January. That's because of new Trump-era tariffs, according to Anza. Markets had to adjust their expectations. But here's the good news: The United States now provides incentives to create panels domestically under the Inflation Reduction Act. It is also having a positive impact as the number of solar panel makers based in the U.S. is rising. They still must import parts, increasing their costs.
Specifically, solar panel users get a 30% tax credit if they buy in the United States, called the residential clean energy credit. While lawmakers could extend it, the credit winds down in 2035. Customers can also get an extra 10% credit if they buy solar panels built in this country. First Solar, Mission Solar, and Qcells are among the solar companies producing panels in the United States.
Panasonic is building a $4 billion electric vehicle battery plant in Kansas to supply Tesla, creating 4,000 jobs. And that's just a start for the manufacturer—if the electric vehicle industry continues to make inroads. Meanwhile, Georgia lured a $2.5 billion investment from the Korean solar company Hanwha Qcell. West Virginia is attracting battery manufacturing plants, providing 21st-century jobs in a state where coal has historically fueled the economy. To that end, Sparkz Inc. and Form Energy will produce energy storage devices.
All that is now at risk for two reasons: The Trump Administration threatens to slow roll or destroy the Inflation Reduction Act enacted during the Biden Administration—the catalyst behind those recent investments. And, the president is determined to impose tariffs. Consider the damage they have already done: In 2018, the Trump administration imposed a 30% tariff on imported solar cells and panels. This policy led U.S. renewable energy companies to cancel or freeze investments exceeding $2.5 billion in large-scale installation projects, resulting in thousands of lost jobs.
Paul Underwood, general manager of Linamar Corp. of Canada, at the company's EV battery case ... More manufacturing facility in Muscle Shoals, Alabama, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2023. In the reddest district in America, First Solar is building a $1.1 billion solar-panel factory. Photographer: Liam Kennedy/Bloomberg
Cypress Creek Renewables, a big player in the solar energy game, halted investing in 1.5 gigawatts of solar projects worth around $1.5 billion, mostly in Texas, Colorado, and the Carolinas. Southern Current canceled $1 billion in investments in South Carolina. The Solar Energy Industries Association said the 2018 tariffs cost 23,000 jobs. Today, the U.S. solar industry employs 280,000 people, the association said. The coal sector employs 42,600.
Trump holds grudges against those U.S. lawmakers who voted in favor of the previous president's bills to enhance green infrastructure—something he could never get done in his first term. That reality, coupled with his antipathy toward climate science, drives his energy and economic policies.
The solar industry largely opposes Trump's tariffs, citing higher cost and hindered growth. However, the administration believes that the import taxes are a mechanism to increase domestic production and raise the level of investment in domestic manufacturing. It also maintains that some countries have unfair trade policies that hurt the United States. Trump argues that tariffs help level the playing field—a view contradicted by nearly every economist.
Economist overwhelmingly disapprove of broad-based tariffs, saying they distort markets, cause consumers to pay higher costs, and are potentially recessionary.
In fact, we have seen how this played out. Once Trump levies a new tariff, the "offending" country delivers a counterblow. And now, we are on round two—a fight that escalates until everyone has paid a price. It's better to make specific trade practices more equitable and keep the money flowing.
'I believe targeted investments, like those made in the Inflation Reduction Act, are more effective,' says Anza's Hall. 'It's saying, if you build this, we will support you. That's a lot more effective at driving investments in the domestic supply chain than saying, hey, we're going to tax imports. That policy will increase the energy cost at a time when we need a lot more energy. It's inflationary.'
Tariffs are already causing consumers to pay higher prices and investors to lose money in the market. Trump wants to beat others into submission, exert economic dominance, and walk away the victor. Tariffs, though, will leave everyone bloody—a critical reason why we should avoid using them like deadly weapons.
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