Amid ‘nightmare' Stanley Cup playoff ratings, can Oilers-Panthers help NHL recapture 4 Nations buzz?

New York Times

a day ago

Earlier this year, the rousingly successful 4 Nations Face-Off tournament — specifically its politically charged matchups between Team USA and Team Canada — had ice hockey as hot as it's been in decades. But sagging television ratings in the United States during the 2024-25 Stanley Cup playoffs have since offered the latest confirmation of what the NHL has experienced since at least the famed 1980 'Miracle On Ice': A galvanizing international hockey moment doesn't necessarily guarantee a boost to the sport's top league.
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Through this season's conference finals, ESPN and TNT platforms have experienced year-over-year viewership dips of 31 and 21 percent, respectively, with fewer than 1 million total American viewers tuning in per broadcast, according to Sports Media Watch. The Eastern Conference final between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Florida Panthers in particular struggled to attract eyeballs, finishing with a 40 percent ratings drop-off from last season's Panthers-New York Rangers series on ESPN/ABC.
An executive with one of those major television networks, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the topic publicly, said that the absences of the New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks, Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins — four traditionally strong draws who combined to miss the playoffs for the first time since the 1967 expansion — conspired to produce 'a nightmare for ratings.'
The executive continued, 'If those teams are in and even if they lose in Round 1, their fans still watch. But (as it is) they probably won't watch until the Cup Final, if we can get them back by then after all those weeks of them not paying attention.'
If any Stanley Cup Final can help lure disinterested fans into the action again, it might be this Oilers-Panthers series. Not only is it the first Cup Final rematch since 2009, but the Oilers' Connor McDavid and Panthers' Matthew Tkachuk were high-profile players in those two heated U.S.-Canada games at the 4 Nations. The NHL's best player, McDavid won the tournament for Canada with an overtime goal in the tournament final. Now his career-long quest to win the Stanley Cup continues against the defending-champion Panthers, who have reached the Cup Final in each of the three seasons that Tkachuk, a rare hockey player who appears to enjoy the spotlight, has been there.
Former NHL player and coach Eddie Olczyk, a longtime U.S. TV analyst who will call the series for TNT, described McDavid and Tkachuk as 'heroes and villains, depending on your side,' in a potential trilogy of Stanley Cup Final showdowns sandwiching an all-time classic installment of arguably the fiercest rivalry in international hockey. And that is without mentioning the looming return of NHL players to the Winter Olympics next February at the 2026 Milano Cortina Games, or the indisputable political undertones at a time when the relationship between the U.S. and Canada has never appeared more strained.
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'It's really important the league capitalizes on this,' said fellow former player and TNT analyst Anson Carter, adding that his family and friends in Toronto were more engaged with last season's final than in years' past because a Canadian team was trying to win the Cup for the first time since the Montreal Canadiens in 1993.
'That's going to push interest in Canada again. And I know many patriotic people down here who are into hockey (because of the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament). And having Connor back going for his Cup — this should be great for hardcore and casual fans.'
For several reasons, though, television ratings for the 2024-25 Final may not accurately reflect its on-paper appeal.
Whereas two of the U.S.'s most recent highest-watched hockey games, Game 7 of the 2024 Cup Final and the 4 Nations Face-Off Final, were broadcast on ABC/ESPN, this Final airs on TNT — no stranger to American sporting audiences, but also no match for ESPN's reach and branding.
The Cup Final also coincides with the NBA Finals, even though games will never be played on the same nights. The NBA usurps the NHL in every measurable ratings and viewership metric in the U.S., which is not to suggest the NHL may not have received a break when the New York Knicks were eliminated by the smaller-market Indiana Pacers. Also, the Oklahoma City Thunder are a huge favorite in the NBA Finals, compared to a Cup Final that betting markets rate as a much closer contest.
But a case can be made — and has been by commissioners in every league — that TV ratings are no longer the be-all and end-all for measuring interest in a tentpole sporting event such as the Cup Final in the era of streaming and social media.
'At least two critical elements will shed light on just how successful the playoffs are,' said David Carter, an adjunct professor of sports business at the University of Southern California and founder of The Sports Business Group, a specialized consulting firm.
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'First and foremost, the total number of playoff games played, as this drives direct, near-term revenue. Also, the extent to which fans, especially younger fans, are engaged on social media, because this will allow the league to more broadly market itself and tell its story, and not just during the playoffs, but over time.'
Besides, even though the Cup Final is its signature event, the NHL makes most of its money on every Cup Final before the puck is even dropped. Ad buys from bigger corporate partners are multi-year deals, with likely only 20 percent remaining to be sold after the Cup Final matchup is set, said David Levy, co-CEO of Horizon Sports & Experiences and former president of Turner Broadcasting.
If a particular Cup Final underperforms projected television ratings, Levy said, stressing that the Cup Final is less about making money and more about generating buzz to entice sponsors for future regular-season ad buys, unsold commercial space is customarily given back to advertisers at no extra cost.
While Edmonton and South Florida probably aren't the ideal Cup Final markets, at least compared to the likes of New York, Chicago or Boston, the league can also benefit from Panthers-Oilers in continuing to strengthen its southern U.S. markets.
'On a smaller scale, having teams like the Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas a couple of years ago, or Dallas going deep (in the playoffs) — it makes those markets stronger, and that's great for the league,' said Michael Naraine, an associate professor of sports management at Ontario's Brock University.
'You saw that in places like Pittsburgh, dating to the 1990s when the Penguins won for the first time and were competitive. When you have sustained success in markets, even in a short window, it's the best thing for those markets. Those markets become what (NHL commissioner) Gary Bettman calls 'good hockey markets' for the NHL. It's a big part of his legacy — those non-traditional markets having success.'
In the end, what Bettman wants more than anything is for more people to pay attention to hockey. Now, with a likely long series full of potential heroes and villains on the immediate horizon, and the inevitable boost of a best-on-best Winter Olympics coming next year, the NHL has the opportunity to capitalize. It just needs the stars to align, not only on the ice but perhaps politically too.
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As the commissioner said during the Western Conference final, 'When you look at Game 7 last year or the 4 Nations games, including the final game, it demonstrates what we're capable of doing in two great countries.'
Additional reporting by Mark Lazerus.