Fire country: Here's the national spring and summer wildfire forecast

USA Today

23-04-2025

Fire country: Here's the national spring and summer wildfire forecast
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Wildfires are predicted to burn up to 9 million acres in the U.S. in 2025, exceeding the 7 million acre historical average.
The highest spring fire risk is in the drought-stricken southern Plains and interior Southwest.
A surge in wildfire activity is expected this summer in the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest, and south-central states.
The horrific firestorm in January in California has already marked 2025 as a disastrous year for U.S. wildfires. Blazes in the Carolinas in March and current fires in New Jersey are signs of what could be a long, arduous year for firefighters across much of the country.
Private forecaster AccuWeather, in a prediction released April 23, said that wildfires are expected to scorch more land across the U.S. than the historical average, with up to 9 million acres expected to burn in 2025.
A typical year sees 7 million acres charred.
'The firestorm that ripped through Southern California in early January caused catastrophic damage and heartbreaking loss," AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok said in a statement. "Families and businesses need to prepare for yet another active year of wildfires in America."
1 million acres burned so far; up to 9 million possible
"We've seen fires reported across 20 states that have already burned nearly 1 million acres so far this year," Pastelok said.
For example, the fires in New Jersey this week have been part of trend: So far in 2025, New Jersey has experienced nearly twice as many wildfires as usual.
Nationally, "AccuWeather is forecasting 7 to 9 million acres to burn across the country this year, which is more than the historical average,' he said.
AccuWeather's 2025 wildfire season forecast
AccuWeather's Paul Pastelok was live on the AccuWeather Network on April 23 to discuss the 2025 wildfire season in the United States.
Spring wildfire forecast
Fire danger should be highest this spring in the drought-plagued southern Plains and interior Southwest, AccuWeather said. "Despite a few early spring storms, drought conditions remain deeply entrenched," Pastelok said. "Dry, windy and low-humidity days are expected to be frequent across the region, leading to rapid drying of available fuels and an increased number of high-risk wildfire days.'
Abnormally dry conditions and warm weather could also increase fire danger across along much of the Eastern Seaboard through the rest of this spring. In fact, the risk of fires along the East Coast the rest of spring extends as far south as parts of southern Florida.
The Carolinas are of particular concern thanks primarily to the devastation from Hurricane Helene last year: 'There is an ongoing risk of fires across parts of the Carolinas and the southern Appalachians this spring. The trees that toppled over during the extreme winds from Helene have left behind piles of timber that act as fuel for any fires that spark,' Pastelok said.
'We fear the risk of fires in the southern Appalachians will intensify over the next two years as all of the trees knocked down by Helene continue to dry out.'
Summer wildfire forecast
A surge of wildfire activity is expected this summer in the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest and south-central states.
"While the season may start slowly, there is strong potential for rapid escalation as drought conditions and heat set in," Pastelok said. 'This is the time of year when grasses, brush and other vegetation really start to dry out as trigger mechanisms kick in, like lightning and wind.'
Fires are possible throughout California this summer, but most of the activity is expected later in the year.
What causes wildfires?
While heat, drought, wind, lightning and other weather and climate conditions can be conducive for sparking or spreading fires, roughly 90% of all wildfires in the US are caused by humans, including sparks from downed power lines, discarded cigarettes, campfires, fireworks, lawn equipment, trains and vehicle backfires.
Contributing: Reuters