World Insights: What's at stake as Shangri-La Dialogue kicks off in Singapore?

Malaysia Sun

a day ago

The 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue, with more than 550 delegates from over 40 countries expected to attend, kicks off in Singapore amid rising tensions and global security challenges.
SINGAPORE, May 30 (Xinhua) -- The 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's leading defense summit, convenes from Friday to Sunday in Singapore, with more than 550 delegates from over 40 countries expected to attend. China will be represented by a delegation from the National Defense University of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.
As the annual summit takes place amid rising geopolitical tensions, analysts say key topics will likely include regional cooperation, the U.S. security policies and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The implications of sweeping U.S. tariffs are also likely to attract attention, as officials will use the platform to reassure partners and navigate an increasingly multipolar security landscape.
PERSISTING U.S. TRUST DEFICIT
High on the agenda of the gathering are seven plenary sessions, two ministerial roundtables and three special forums. Topics range from regional stability and defense innovation to cyber and space threats.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to speak on Saturday about America's "new ambitions for Indo-Pacific security." Observers say he faces a tough task in convincing Asian allies, many of whom remain uneasy about President Donald Trump's disruptive policies, not least those related to trade.
Experts like Tan See Seng from Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies argue that Washington's reassurances are often transactional in nature. Trump's reassurances are better understood as deals "with their requisite pounds of flesh," he wrote.
William Choong, senior fellow at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, deems the effort to restore trust an "impossible mission."
"Whatever Hegseth might say in terms of strategy or priorities will sound hollow compared to what the United States has done since President Donald Trump came to power on Jan. 20," he said.
French President Emmanuel Macron is set to deliver a keynote speech late Friday at the Shangri-La Dialogue, where he's expected to position France -- and Europe -- as champions of international cooperation and rules-based trade.
Prior to his trip to Singapore, Macron visited Vietnam and Indonesia. Since launching its Indo-Pacific strategy in 2019, France has steadily strengthened ties with Southeast Asia, noted Jean-Loup Samaan of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore.
LOUDER ASEAN VOICES
Amid mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainties, Southeast Asian countries are expected to project a more unified and independent stance at the Dialogue.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will give a speech and make clear how, amid global geopolitical uncertainties and sharpened geo-economic fault lines, Malaysia as ASEAN's current chair, provides strategic leadership for the region and beyond, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the organizer.
In response to U.S. tariffs, ASEAN has called for greater unity among its members and with like-minded partners. The Dialogue comes just days after the inaugural ASEAN-China-GCC (the Gulf Cooperation Council) summit, which have forged a groundbreaking path in cross-regional cooperation.
At the 46th ASEAN Summit this week, leaders issued the Kuala Lumpur Declaration, reaffirming commitments to regional peace, a rules-based order and ASEAN unity, which are, as analysts observe, likely to be reflected in Anwar's address.
Tan See Seng emphasized the value of Asian pragmatism: "What Asia has done well, it must now do even better amid the challenging conditions set by Mr. Trump."
CHINA'S VIEWS EXPECTED
As the global security landscape fractures and the multilateral system faces unprecedented strain, all eyes are turning to China's stance.
On Thursday, Chinese defense ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang confirmed the attendance of a delegation from the PLA's National Defense University at the forum.
He said that China has consistently engaged in various constructive dialogue platforms to elaborate on its visions and initiatives, communicate with all parties, enhance mutual trust, dispel misgivings and deepen cooperation.
Regarding China-U.S. interactions, Zhang said China's values are expected to be a central topic throughout the summit. On this, Zhang said China puts emphasis on its military relations with the United States and remains open to communication at all levels.
China's active role in global security governance has been increasingly acknowledged. In 2022, China introduced the Global Security Initiative (GSI). As of the end of 2024, with the support of 119 countries and international and regional organizations, the initiative has been written into 123 bilateral and multilateral cooperation documents.
China's position at this year's Shangri-La Dialogue is expected to be closely followed, with many viewing China as a stabilizing force in a volatile world landscape.
"We need China to take a more active role in the discussion, as it can help alleviate the conflict that affects the global community," said Nuriyeni Kartika Bintarsari, head of international relations at Jenderal Soedirman University.
Han Yong Hong, associate editor of Singapore's newspaper Lianhe Zaobao, wrote that China is currently not eager to engage with the United States on trade or security, but is instead focusing on expanding markets and building supply chains. "Other trading nations around the world may also be willing to form flexible new frameworks for cooperation with China," she said.
On top of U.S.-China relations, the summit is also expected to grapple with the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict and simmering India-Pakistan tension, though analysts caution against expecting substantive progress on these issues.
As a freewheeling event, the dialogue often features debates rarely seen in public elsewhere and provides the opportunity for more discreet bilateral and multilateral talks, analysts and diplomats were quoted by Reuters as saying. But that informality means it is unlikely to involve any breakthroughs to major issues.