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Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
Fresh US tariffs could further slow India's growth. All eyes on 21-day deadline.
Next Story Business News/ Economy / Fresh US tariffs could further slow India's growth. All eyes on 21-day deadline. Rhik Kundu India's GDP growth could be hit by another 0.2-0.3 percentage points in FY26 due to Trump's additional 25% tariff hike on Indian goods. Benchmark indices dipped nearly 1% but rebounded on hopes of a favourable deal during the 21-day negotiation window. Indian exporters could be among the hardest hit by Trump's trade offensive when the additional duties kick in on 27 August, unless a breakthrough is reached during the ongoing 21-day negotiation window. Gift this article New Delhi: India's economic growth in 2025-26 could be hit by another 20-30 basis points if US President Donald Trump's proposed additional 25% tariff hike on Indian goods takes effect later this month, economists cautioned. New Delhi: India's economic growth in 2025-26 could be hit by another 20-30 basis points if US President Donald Trump's proposed additional 25% tariff hike on Indian goods takes effect later this month, economists cautioned. The combined impact of Trump's total 50% tariff hike is conservatively projected to reduce India's FY26 GDP growth by 40-60 basis points, or 0.4-0.6 percentage points. Indian exporters could be among the hardest hit by Trump's trade offensive when the additional duties kick in on 27 August, unless a breakthrough is reached during the ongoing 21-day negotiation window. 'Roughly half of India's exports to the US could be affected, especially from labour-intensive sectors like garments, leather, and gems and jewellery," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. 'The impact on GDP may not be dramatic, but we could see growth closer to 6.2-6.3% in FY26," he said. Also Read | Modi-Trump showdown over tariffs and Russia trade, in 9 charts Goldman Sachs projected a similar 0.30 percentage point drag on India's economic growth if Trump's tariffs are fully implemented. Sabnavis said the additional 25% levy would force Indian exporters to either absorb margin pressure or divert shipments to other markets. 'The government may then have to consider targeted support, especially for MSMEs (micro, small, and medium enterprises), which are large employment generators," he said. Trump's latest salvo 'appears to be an effort to bring India to the negotiating table", Sabnavis said. "A deal could still emerge, potentially reducing the hike to 10-15%." Exports to the US account for around 2% of India's GDP, so any disruption is likely to weigh on FY26 growth, added Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings. However, shipments sent before 27 August and arriving at US ports by early September are expected to be taxed at the earlier, lower rate. "We have already revised our FY26 growth to 6.3% from the earlier forecast of 6.6%. However, if both countries have a trade deal, the impact will be lower," Pant said. A senior government official said it was too early to quantify the impact of the proposed US tariffs on India's FY26 growth, given that trade negotiations are still underway. 'Talks are ongoing, and it's premature to estimate the final impact on growth," this official said, requesting anonymity. India is expected to resume talks this month on a bilateral trade agreement with the US, its largest trade partner. Also Read | India eyes a secret weapon in trade tussle with US Costly reverberations Trump framed his additional 25% levy as retaliation for India's oil and defence ties with Russia and growing alignment with the BRICS bloc. While India termed the additional tariffs 'unfair, unjustified and unreasonable", Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted he was unwilling to offer concessions in agriculture and dairy. 'India will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers," Modi said on Thursday. 'I know personally I will have to pay a heavy price for it, but I am ready for it." The Reserve Bank of India lowered its FY26 growth estimate to 6.5% from 6.7% in April, citing global trade and tariff risks following Trump's announcement of reciprocal duties that month. Goldman Sachs, too, recently trimmed its real GDP forecast for India to 6.5% for calendar year 2025 and 6.4% for 2026. 'We had previously estimated a potential direct impact of around 0.3 percentage point (annualised) to India's real GDP growth, following President Trump's surprise announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian imports (last month)," Goldman Sachs said in a report on Thursday. 'If the new additional duty (including exclusions) is enforced, then that would constitute a potential incremental drag of around another 0.3pp (annualised)." Exports to the US account for nearly 4% of India's GDP, the New York-headquartered investment bank said in its report, adding that even a modest slowdown in American demand could reverberate across the economy. 'We see downside risks to our growth estimates for both CY25 and CY26, but are not making any changes to our growth forecasts at the moment, given that there is a three-week window for negotiations until the new incremental tariffs come into effect," Goldman Sachs added. A senior economist at a global consulting firm, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that a 50% tariff could drag down India's FY26 GDP growth by as much as 0.8%. 'A 25% tariff could shave off 0.2-0.3% from GDP, but at 50%, the impact doesn't just double, it could be significantly worse, as some export-dependent sectors may not survive," the economist said. 'There will definitely be a negative impact. It's unclear how businesses will adjust, particularly in vulnerable sectors like textiles." Growth forecasts split The warnings come amid a broader wave of downward revisions to India's growth outlook. Last month, the Asian Development Bank cut its FY26 GDP growth forecast for India to 6.5% from 6.7%, citing tariff risks and weaker global trade. The International Monetary Fund, in contrast, raised its projection for India's economic growth in FY26 to 6.4% from 6.2%, pointing to resilient domestic demand and macroeconomic stability. Moody's and S&P Global have both pegged India's growth at 6.5%, while the government's Economic Survey earlier this year projected a range of 6.3-6.8%. Despite the headwinds, India remains the world's fastest-growing major economy. A spokesperson for the Union finance ministry did not respond to emailed queries on whether the government is reassessing its forecasts in light of the proposed US tariffs. The US is one of the few major economies with which India runs a sizeable trade surplus. That surplus widened to $41.18 billion in FY25, up 16.6% from $35.33 billion the previous year. Exports to the US rose 11.6% to $86.51 billion, while imports climbed 7.4% to $45.33 billion. By contrast, India's overall merchandise trade deficit stood at $282.83 billion in FY25, underscoring the strategic importance of its trade with the US. Topics You May Be Interested In Catch all the Business News , Economy news , Breaking News Events andLatest News Updates on Live Mint. Download TheMint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Mint
4 hours ago
- Mint
Fresh US tariffs could shave up to 30 bps off India's FY26 growth prospects, experts say
New Delhi: India's economic growth in 2025-26 could be hit by another 20-30 basis points if US President Donald Trump's proposed additional 25% tariff hike on Indian goods takes effect later this month, economists cautioned. The combined impact of Trump's total 50% tariff hike is conservatively projected to reduce India's FY26 GDP growth by 40-60 basis points, or 0.4-0.6 percentage points. Indian exporters could be among the hardest hit by Trump's trade offensive when the additional duties kick in on 27 August, unless a breakthrough is reached during the ongoing 21-day negotiation window. Benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex dropped almost 1% on Thursday, but rebounded to end the day's session marginally higher on expectations that New Delhi can negotiate a better deal and as the overall impact on India's economy appeared manageable. 'Roughly half of India's exports to the US could be affected, especially from labour-intensive sectors like garments, leather, and gems and jewellery," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. 'The impact on GDP may not be dramatic, but we could see growth closer to 6.2-6.3% in FY26," he said. Goldman Sachs projected a similar 0.30 percentage point drag on India's economic growth if Trump's tariffs are fully implemented. Sabnavis said the additional 25% levy would force Indian exporters to either absorb margin pressure or divert shipments to other markets. 'The government may then have to consider targeted support, especially for MSMEs (micro, small, and medium enterprises), which are large employment generators," he said. Trump's latest salvo 'appears to be an effort to bring India to the negotiating table", Sabnavis said. "A deal could still emerge, potentially reducing the hike to 10-15%." Exports to the US account for around 2% of India's GDP, so any disruption is likely to weigh on FY26 growth, added Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings. However, shipments sent before 27 August and arriving at US ports by early September are expected to be taxed at the earlier, lower rate. "We have already revised our FY26 growth to 6.3% from the earlier forecast of 6.6%. However, if both countries have a trade deal, the impact will be lower," Pant said. A senior government official said it was too early to quantify the impact of the proposed US tariffs on India's FY26 growth, given that trade negotiations are still underway. 'Talks are ongoing, and it's premature to estimate the final impact on growth," this official said, requesting anonymity. India is expected to resume talks this month on a bilateral trade agreement with the US, its largest trade partner. Costly reverberations Trump framed his additional 25% levy as retaliation for India's oil and defence ties with Russia and growing alignment with the BRICS bloc. While India termed the additional tariffs 'unfair, unjustified and unreasonable", Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted he was unwilling to offer concessions in agriculture and dairy. 'India will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers," Modi said on Thursday. 'I know personally I will have to pay a heavy price for it, but I am ready for it." The Reserve Bank of India lowered its FY26 growth estimate to 6.5% from 6.7% in April, citing global trade and tariff risks following Trump's announcement of reciprocal duties that month. Goldman Sachs, too, recently trimmed its real GDP forecast for India to 6.5% for calendar year 2025 and 6.4% for 2026. 'We had previously estimated a potential direct impact of around 0.3 percentage point (annualised) to India's real GDP growth, following President Trump's surprise announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian imports (last month)," Goldman Sachs said in a report on Thursday. 'If the new additional duty (including exclusions) is enforced, then that would constitute a potential incremental drag of around another 0.3pp (annualised)." Exports to the US account for nearly 4% of India's GDP, the New York-headquartered investment bank said in its report, adding that even a modest slowdown in American demand could reverberate across the economy. 'We see downside risks to our growth estimates for both CY25 and CY26, but are not making any changes to our growth forecasts at the moment, given that there is a three-week window for negotiations until the new incremental tariffs come into effect," Goldman Sachs added. A senior economist at a global consulting firm, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that a 50% tariff could drag down India's FY26 GDP growth by as much as 0.8%. 'A 25% tariff could shave off 0.2-0.3% from GDP, but at 50%, the impact doesn't just double, it could be significantly worse, as some export-dependent sectors may not survive," the economist said. 'There will definitely be a negative impact. It's unclear how businesses will adjust, particularly in vulnerable sectors like textiles." Growth forecasts split The warnings come amid a broader wave of downward revisions to India's growth outlook. Last month, the Asian Development Bank cut its FY26 GDP growth forecast for India to 6.5% from 6.7%, citing tariff risks and weaker global trade. The International Monetary Fund, in contrast, raised its projection for India's economic growth in FY26 to 6.4% from 6.2%, pointing to resilient domestic demand and macroeconomic stability. Moody's and S&P Global have both pegged India's growth at 6.5%, while the government's Economic Survey earlier this year projected a range of 6.3-6.8%. Despite the headwinds, India remains the world's fastest-growing major economy. A spokesperson for the Union finance ministry did not respond to emailed queries on whether the government is reassessing its forecasts in light of the proposed US tariffs. The US is one of the few major economies with which India runs a sizeable trade surplus. That surplus widened to $41.18 billion in FY25, up 16.6% from $35.33 billion the previous year. Exports to the US rose 11.6% to $86.51 billion, while imports climbed 7.4% to $45.33 billion. By contrast, India's overall merchandise trade deficit stood at $282.83 billion in FY25, underscoring the strategic importance of its trade with the US.
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First Post
5 hours ago
- First Post
Why Trump's 50% tariff on India will also hurt rest of the world
US President Donald Trump is mistaken if he thinks the rest of the world will be insulated from the fallout from his 50 per cent tariffs on India. This is because New Delhi remains a vital part of the global economy. Let's take a closer look read more Some think US President Donald Trump is merely using pressure tactics to try to drive a trade deal between the two countries on favourable terms to the United States. Reuters US President Donald Trump has imposed 50 per cent tariffs on India for doing business with Russia. However he is mistaken if he thinks the rest of the world will be insulated from the fallout given that India is a vital part of the global economy. Trump who previously called India a 'tariff king', has taken a harsh stand on India recently. Some think Trump is merely using pressure tactics to try to drive a trade deal between the two countries on favourable terms to the United States. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD But how will Trump's tariffs on India hurt the rest of the world too? Let's take a closer look Impact on Indian GDP Some experts think Trump's tariffs could cause India's GDP to shrink between 0.2 and 0.4 per cent. Sonal Badhan, Economics Specialist at Bank of Baroda, has claimed the tariff, if reduced to 25-26 per cent, could bring down India's GDP by .2 per cent. 'There appears to be downside risk to our growth forecast of 6.4-6.6 per cent if lower rates are not negotiated,' Badhan said. She said garments, precious stones, pharmaceuticals, auto parts, electronics, and MSMEs would most likely be affected. Other analysts said it could impact the GDP far more. Bloomberg Economics said the tariffs could bring down the GDP as much as 1 per cent and reduce shipments to the US as much as 60 per cent. 'The overall hit to GDP could be even higher at 1.1 per cent over the medium term' once tariffs on sectors such as pharmaceuticals and electronics are announced, analysts Chetna Kumar and Adam Farrar wrote as per the outlet. Textiles and clothing, gems and jewellery, shrimp, leather and footwear, chemicals and electrical and mechanical machinery would be most affected. Reuters Ajay Bagga, a banking and market expert, called the development a huge blow for India. 'India is now hit with 50 per cent tariffs, but frankly, once it crossed 25 per cent, it didn't matter. It could be 1,000 per cent or 5,000 per cent; there's no trade possible anymore,' Bagga said. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD He said exporters would be hit particularly hard. 'If $1 billion worth of textile exports are halted, it directly impacts around 100,000 workers,' Bagga added. This naturally would have a spill over affect to the world. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastav said this would make Indian goods far more expensive in the US. Textiles and clothing, gems and jewellery, shrimp, leather and footwear, chemicals and electrical and mechanical machinery would be most affected. This would put exporters at a major disadvantage compared to their competitors in other countries. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), calling the move 'extremely shocking', said around 55 per cent of India's exports to the US could be affected. How Indian economy affects the world Let's take a look at the Indian economy's contribution to the world. RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday described India's economy as 'robust'. He noted that India was growing at 6.5 per cent compared to 4 per cent for the rest of the world. 'We are contributing about 18 per cent to the total global growth which is more than US where the contribution is expected to be much lesser, I think about 11 per cent or something', Malhotra said. Malhotra said some of the impact of US tariffs had been built in to the RBI's revised growth forecast. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The central bank had preciously cut its forecast from 6.7 per cent to 6.5 per cent. 'However, there is still a lot of uncertainty and it is very difficult to predict the impact going forward', Malhotra said. He added that the central bank would keep an eye on things and make moves accordingly. Crude prices would increase Though India has saved billions of dollars over the past few years by buying cheaper crude from Russia, the discount isn't that much these days. In 2023, Russia was offering India a massive discount of $23 per barrel. This May, Indian buyers were paying just $4.50 less per barrel than crude imported from Saudi Arabia. Though India could easily pivot to buying crude from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, who have historically been India's suppliers in West Asia, this would only hurt the world. As noted before, India prior to the Ukraine war barely bought any crude from Russia. It began doing so with the encouragement of the US after war broke out. Brent crude prices had risen to $137 (Rs 12,000) per barrel in March 2022 after fears that global markets would be cut off from Russian oil. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD , India prior to the Ukraine war barely bought any crude from Russia. It began doing so with the encouragement of the US. Sources have said prices, which are currently below $70 (Rs 6,127) per barrel, could increase to as much as $200 (Rs 17,560) per barrel if India were to stop buying Russian oil. 'Had Indian oil refiners not absorbed discounted Russian crude, combined with OPEC production cuts of 5.86 million barrels per day, global oil prices could have surged well beyond the March 2022 peak of 137 dollars per barrel, intensifying inflation globally,' sources said. Shilan Shah of Capital Economics, told Bloomberg the cost of not buying crude from Russia is 'not actually that big'. 'It feels like a political decision rather than an economic one. India doesn't want to be seen caving to Trump's demands. India and Russia have pretty longstanding trade relations, which I think India would be keen to maintain,' he said. 'Everyone understands Trump's aim is to try and pressure Putin, but to do it with a gun on India's shoulder is not going down well with New Delhi,' Bloomberg quoted Vandana Hari, founder of consultancy Vanda Insights, as saying. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD However, some say acrimony can still be avoided. 'There may be more symbolism than substance to the extra 25 per cent tariff on imports from India,' Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, told CNBC. 'The duty does not into effect for 21 days. That's quite a wide window to provide an offramp.' With inputs from agencies
