How Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian airfields could derail Russia's war efforts

Yahoo

2 days ago

The drone attacks by Ukrainian Operation Spider's Web forces on Russian airfields have called into question Russia's supposed military strength.
Russian authorities have acknowledged damage from the June 1 attacks — an unusual admission that suggests the strikes were probably effective, given Russia's usual pattern of downplaying or denying the success of Ukrainian operations.
The operation's most significant target was the Belaya air base, north of Mongolia. Belaya, like the other bases targeted, is a critical component in the Russian Air Force's strategic strike capabilities because it houses planes capable of long-range nuclear and conventional strikes.
It's also in Irkutsk, approximately 4,500 kilometres from the front lines in Ukraine.
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Ukraine's ability to successfully strike Belaya — an attempted strike at the even more distant Ukrainka air base failed — probably won't have much of a military impact on the war. But along with successful attacks on other Russian airfields and the strike at the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, Operation Spider Web's successes could play a strategic role in the conflict.
These attacks could shift what has become increasingly negative media coverage and public perception about Ukraine's chances in the war over the last year. In a war of attrition, which the conflict in Ukraine has become, establishing a belief in victory is a pre-condition for success.
Policymakers and pundits, instead of recognizing their expectations of a Ukrainian victory in 2023 were unrealistic, have often declared that the war is unwinnable for Ukraine.
This perspective was even more prevalent following United States President Donald Trump's resumption of power in January 2025. In the Oval Office spat Trump had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in late February, he declared Ukraine did not 'have the cards' to defeat Russia.
This turned out to be false. Ukraine's army may possess significantly less military hardware and fewer soldiers than Russia's, but war is often a continuation of politics. Politically, Russia faces several issues that could derail its war efforts.
Russia's military capabilities are important to Russian nationalists, who make up Russian leader Vladimir Putin's core constituency. Russian military forces have advanced along nearly all fronts in Ukraine over the last year.
These advances, however, have largely been insignificant. Furthermore, they have emphasized Russia's military weakness, which is an ongoing affront to Russian nationalists.
Not only have Russian military advances over the last year not changed the war in a strictly military sense, but the pace of advance has been incredibly slow. Over the last year, Russian forces have captured 5,107 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. This territory represents less than one per cent of Ukraine's pre-war territory.
In exchange for what amounts to negligible gains, Russian armed forces have suffered significant casualties.
Both Russia and Ukraine carefully guard the number of casualties their forces have suffered in the war. The British Ministry of Defence, however, estimates that Russia will have suffered more than a million casualties in the war by the end of this month. The Russian casualty rate is also accelerating, with an estimated 160,000 casualties in the first four months of 2025.
Russia attempts to compensate for this battlefield devastation in two ways.
First, it's isolated Ukraine by manipulating Trump's desire for political wins and business deals. Russia, in appearing to seek an end to the conflict while offering no concessions, has stoked tensions between Zelenskyy and Trump, where there was little love lost between the two to begin with.
Second, Russia has increased its attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Large-scale bombing does little to help Russia on the battlefield. The attacks, in fact, put its forces at a disadvantage by redirecting munitions from military targets.
The attacks on civilian infrastructure, however, are more about instilling fear in the Ukrainian population and demonstrating American impotence to a Russian audience.
Russia's attacks on Ukrainian cities also highlight Russia's trump card: nuclear weapons. Russia, and specifically former Russian president Dimitry Medvedev, has repeatedly threatened nuclear war in an attempt to dissuade Ukraine's supporters.
By bombing Ukrainian cities, albeit with conventional munitions, Russia seeks to demonstrate its ability to deploy even more destructive weapons should the situation call for it.
These Russian military missteps, combined with a Russian economy that is structurally unsound, means that Russia's war effort is increasingly fragile.
Ukraine's attack on Belaya also signals Russian weakness to its nominal allies in Asia.
Since the start of hostilities, Russia has relied on the tacit consent of China. This support has taken the form of China purchasing Russian crude oil to maintain the Russian economy and Chinese citizens unofficially fighting for Russia.
Belaya has been a vital element of Russia's deterrence strategy in Asia, which has come to rely more heavily on the Russian strategic nuclear threat. The inability of Russia to protect one of its key strategic assets from a Ukrainian drone attack, combined with the weakness of Russian conventional forces in Ukraine, erodes its ability to position itself as a key ally to China.
In fact, some Russian authorities continue to view China as a major threat.
At the same time, Operation Spider's Web gives hope to the Ukrainian people. It may also cause Trump — who prefers to back winners — to ponder whether it's Putin, not Zelenskyy, who lacks the cards to win the war.
This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organisation bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: James Horncastle, Simon Fraser University
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James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.