Declassified files outline UK plan to evacuate Hongkongers in ‘Armageddon scenario' after Tiananmen crackdown

HKFP

24-07-2025

The UK drafted plans to evacuate millions of people in Hong Kong in an 'Armageddon scenario,' following China's Tiananmen crackdown in 1989, according to newly declassified documents.
The confidential British Cabinet Office files – made available online on Tuesday – show that then UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher's administration created contingency plans for a mass evacuation of Hong Kong people in the wake of the crackdown.
Beijing sent troops to disperse pro-democracy demonstrators at Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989, killing hundreds – if not thousands, according to some estimates.
According to the 415-page documents, the UK assessed its capacity to transfer millions of Hongkongers to Taiwan, the Philippines, or other places in the region by air and by sea, as well as a potential military conflict with China during the evacuation.
'This paper examines the scenarios that might prompt a large-scale exodus from Hong Kong in the period up to 1997 or thereafter,' read a document dated August 17, 1989.
'This includes evacuation by both civil and military means, and arrangements for the reception and resettlement of refugees,' it continued.
Hong Kong was handed over from British rule to Chinese rule on July 1, 1997.
'Internally generated panic'
The contingency plan – drafted by a secret Cabinet Office committee called 'MISC 140,' which reported to then British diplomat Leonard Appleyard – proposed two pre-1997 scenarios and two post-1997 scenarios that could lead to a mass exodus of people from Hong Kong.
In the period preceding 1997, Hong Kong could see 'a steady ebbing away of confidence, culminating in rising panic or economic collapse,' according to the document.
'If the confidence of the people of Hong Kong is not restored, there will inevitably be an increasing outflow of capital and talent from the territory. The rate of emigration would be limited only by the availability of places in the destination countries,' the paper read.
The pre-1997 period could also see a 'panic provoked by further developments in China,' which included 'the brutal use of military force against Chinese civilians' and the scenario of a civil war in the country, the paper added.
In post-1997 years, Hongkongers could still leave the territory en masse due to 'panic provoked by China' and 'internally generated panic,' the paper envisioned, which could result in the public losing confidence in the Sino-British Joint Declaration, a 1984 agreement under which Beijing promises to maintain a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong after the transfer of sovereignty.
'In a deteriorating situation, Hong Kong's inhabitants would judge that the Joint Declaration was not working: this might be because of increasing Chinese interference; because of growing corruption in the territory; or because of a perception that Britain and the rest of the international community were no longer willing or able to do much to help,' the paper read.
'Chinese attitude will be crucial'
The Cabinet Office committee set out a three-phase contingency plan – from 'green' to 'amber' to 'red.' The British government would monitor movement from Hong Kong to the UK and amass the transportation capacity required for a mass evacuation when a large-scale exodus was imminent or had begun.
Among the evacuation plans proposed by the committee was one that would charter all 143 non-Chinese-owned cruise ships in the world, then ferry people in Hong Kong to Taiwan, the Philippines, and Australia.
Military assistance by the British air force and navy would be a 'significant feature' of an evacuation plan 'up to July 1997 but not beyond,' when Hong Kong was due to return to Chinese rule, according to the paper.
'The Chinese attitude will be crucial in determining whether there is a crisis leading to a mass exodus and, if so, how that crisis can be managed,' a document from October 1989 read.
The UK also 'could not handle a mass evacuation alone,' the documents show, and material support from the US – which has a large military presence in Asian countries like Japan and the Philippines – would be imperative.
'Other countries would have to help, and the United States would be particularly important,' according to the documents.
The files also disclose the UK government's estimate of the financial cost such a mass evacuation plan would have on the country.
'A large influx into the United Kingdom would create a huge resettlement problem which would be hugely expensive to deal with. This underlines the importance of doing everything possible to prevent a mass exodus,' the documents read.
Exodus
Between 1985 and 1997, about 57,600 people moved from Hong Kong, according to a 2021 BBC report citing official figures provided by the city's authorities.
The number paled in comparison to a more recent wave of large-scale emigration during the Covid pandemic, with official data showing a net outflow of about 123,000 residents in 2020 and 2021.
Part of the outflow is believed to have been propelled by the city's political changes following the pro-democracy protests and unrest in 2019 and Beijing's imposition of a national security law in 2020 to quell dissent.
As of March this year, 163,400 people from Hong Kong holding British National (Overseas) passports have arrived in the UK since London began accepting applications in 2021, according to the UK's Home Office.
Hong Kong's population shrank from about 7.48 million in 2020 to 7.34 million in mid-2022, before rebounding to about 7.53 million at the end of last year.
The government attributed the population rise to various policies aiming to attract talent and import overseas labour.