NASCAR Cup Series at Pocono Raceway odds, expert predictions for Great American Getaway 400

New York Times

4 hours ago

The NASCAR Cup Series is in Pennsylvania this weekend for The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway. As drivers prepare to face NASCAR's 'Tricky Triangle,' we're getting race insights from our motorsports experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi.
They'll fill us in on NASCAR's future in San Diego, the roiling feud between Carson Hocevar and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and of course, favorites and long shots for Sunday's race.
Take it away, guys!
Jordan reported that NASCAR is nearing a deal for a Cup Series street course race in San Diego. Will this replace Chicago, or will it be an additional street race? What are your thoughts on the increasing street course races in the NASCAR schedule? How does it shift strategy among teams?
Jeff: Personally, I think there's only room for one street course race per year in NASCAR. A street course needs to be highlighted in its own way, and it could quickly become less special if there are multiple per season. It's sort of like the NHL's Winter Classic when it was diluted with the Stadium Series; there's a careful balance when it comes to these special events. NASCAR is not traditionally a road racing series (it only had two road course races per season for decades) and certainly wasn't a circuit with street races until a couple of years ago, with the addition of Chicago. Fans are already weary of too many non-ovals anyway, but it's certainly an opportunity for teams like Trackhouse Racing, who can hire a road course ace to launch them into the playoffs.
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Jordan: While NASCAR's original three-year contract with the city of Chicago is up at the end of the year, the possibility is there that NASCAR could return next year by exercising the option it holds. But to Jeff's point, having two street courses on the schedule could potentially take away some of the novelty, which is part of the appeal of doing this. Plus, there is the cost to consider when staging two such races. It certainly isn't cheap. Looking at it from the team perspective, it's a further indication that the schedule going forward, consisting of five to six road/street courses and six drafting tracks, will continue to feature a good mix of various tracks.
Whew, Carson Hocevar really can't keep himself out of trouble, can he? (Though it seems he's good at apologies!) What do you think will happen with him and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.? Is it really just a coincidence that Stenhouse was the one Hocevar had a run-in with? Is that just bad luck or intentional? Could this boost performance for either of them? Is this a powder keg about to blow?
Jeff: Yeah, Stenhouse is not going to let this one go. Unfortunately for Hocevar, that was the worst possible person he could have collided with, and it shows bad judgment on his part, because it was completely unnecessary. Hocevar was a lap down at the time, and he shouldn't have even let himself get close enough to Stenhouse for them to have contact; Hocevar wasn't racing for anything but cleaned Stenhouse out. Whoops. So now Stenhouse is going to have to enact some sort of revenge, or he'll come across as not being a man of his word, which is antithetical to his personal code. In other words, Hocevar either needs to watch his back or his rear-view mirror.
Jordan: Word of advice for Carson Hocevar: If you see Ricky Stenhouse Jr. this weekend and he's wearing his shorts with the camo design, quickly walk in the other direction.
I believe this is the final race to determine seeding for the in-season challenge. What should we know about this process, and what are the stakes at Pocono for that tournament? Do the drivers care? Is this on the teams' minds?
Jeff: This has been such a silly way to seed the in-season tournament. Instead of just taking the point standings and going 1 vs. 32, 2 vs. 31, etc., NASCAR has been seeding the top 32 drivers over a three-week stretch based on their best finish. So the No. 1 seed right now is Denny Hamlin, who won at Michigan and then didn't even race last week at Mexico City. Meanwhile, Joey Logano is the No. 27 seed — so would it be an 'upset' if he knocked off a No. 6 seed in Round 1? Of course not, and he'll probably be heavily favored. So, again, doing it this way is a miss and will only confuse bettors. As for whether the teams care, the answer is no — not until next week, anyway. Once we start seeing the matchups and they start getting asked about it, then it could be on their minds more.
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Jordan: In addition to what Jeff said about the seeding, keep in mind that the opening tournament race is at Atlanta, a track with a well-deserved reputation for generating chaos where multi-car accidents are commonplace. There's a good chance the bracket will see some notables knocked out early, with a good number of 'Cinderellas' moving forward. Additionally, the fact that the Chicago Street Course follows Atlanta only creates additional opportunities for upsets to happen. It will be very interesting to see what this bracket looks like after a couple of races.
Who is your favorite to win this weekend and why? Who has been dominant here in the past?
Jeff: Denny Hamlin is Pocono's all-time wins leader — yes, all-time, not just among active drivers — with seven victories. That's almost too easy, and he's a heavy favorite after going win-win-second in the three Next Gen races there. Oh, what's that you say? You're not seeing a win for Hamlin in 2022? That's because he got disqualified for a very minor infraction (still illegal, but minor) after winning that year. For betting purposes, you need to view it as a win. But again, that seems like a pretty obvious pick, so if you're looking for slightly better value? Perhaps go with William Byron, who is Pocono's all-time leader in average finish despite never actually winning there. He has +800 odds.
Jordan: That William Byron doesn't have another win or two or three this season is surprising, considering how dominant he's been at times. He's due, overdue, to finally get that second victory, and Pocono represents a great place to do it. He's finished in the top 10 in over 50 percent of his starts here, and this is one of those tracks where the best teams in a given season tend to shine. Also, don't be surprised if Kyle Larson puts a tough few weeks behind him by putting a classic No. 5-team stomping on the field where he sweeps the stages, leads a ton of laps and rolls to the win.
Who is a long shot you like here?
Jeff: Pocono is the type of race where we could see an upset if fuel mileage plays out the right way. But that doesn't help you much, because there are a lot of people to choose from in that regard. A better play might be to see if you can parlay a couple of plus-money top-10 picks together. Like, is it a stretch to think AJ Allmendinger (+10000 to win) and Michael McDowell (+20000) could both be in the top 10? Not at all. So maybe play around with that and see if you can come up with a combination that might work. After all, it would have been a great strategy last week when John Hunter Nemechek and Cole Custer landed surprising top-10s in Mexico City.
Jordan: Legacy Motor Speedway has shown considerably more speed in its cars recently, and if this speed is again present on Sunday, Erik Jones at +8000 makes for a great sleeper pick. Among active drivers, he has the fifth-most top-five finishes and seventh-best average finish, and with Pocono being a track known for long green-flag runs, the opportunity could be there for LMC to gamble with a Hail Mary strategy to score an upset win.
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(Photo of Denny Hamlin: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)