How will the next Dalai Lama be chosen – and could there be two?

Al Jazeera

4 days ago

The Dalai Lama confirmed on Wednesday that he will have a successor to carry on the role of spiritual leadership to Tibetan Buddhists, in a statement issued during continuing celebrations to mark his 90th birthday.
He said that leaders of Tibet's spiritual traditions, members of the Tibetan parliament and government in exile, both of which are in the Indian district of Dharamshala, and Buddhists from around the world, including mainland China and Tibet, had written to him, requesting that the institution continue.
'In accordance with all these requests, I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue,' he said.
His statement, issued at a time when Buddhist scholars and revered monks from around the world have converged on McLeodganj town in Dharamshala, where the Dalai Lama lives, to participate in the 90th birthday celebrations. The town, also known as 'Little Lhasa' because it is in effect the capital of Tibetan Buddhists in exile, will also host an intense three-day religious conference that the Dalai Lama will preside over.
But the occasion isn't only religious. How the next Dalai is chosen, and by whom, carries deep geopolitical significance.
For centuries, Tibetan Buddhist leaders have chosen and enthroned a new Dalai Lama only after an intense quest and subsequent schooling after the incumbent passes away. If the current Dalai Lama, the 14th, offers any more details in the coming days about how his successor might be chosen, or whom it might be, that would represent a dramatic break with tradition.
What he says, and doesn't say, will be closely watched in Washington, New Delhi and Beijing.
The Dalai Lama, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate who fled Tibet for India in 1959, is seen as a separatist by Beijing. India, as his host for 66 years, has deep stakes in the future of the institution of the Dalai Lama, who has known every Indian prime minister since the country gained independence. And the United States, which has long cited the Tibetan movement in exile as evidence of China's human rights excesses, will want to make sure that the glue that binds it all – the institution of the Dalai Lama – continues.
So, who will choose the next Dalai Lama? Can the incumbent Dalai Lama stump the Chinese government? And could there be two Dalai Lamas?
How is a Dalai Lama chosen?
Choosing the next Dalai Lama, who will be enthroned as the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, is a process rooted in centuries-old traditions, spiritual beliefs, and rituals.
Traditions consider the Dalai Lama as the reincarnation of Avalokiteshvara, the Bodhisattva of Compassion, and each Dalai Lama is believed to be the successor in a line of reincarnations.
Traditionally, the search for the Dalai Lama's reincarnation typically begins after a period of mourning. High-ranking lamas (spiritual leaders) form a search committee to identify the next Dalai Lama, based on signs such as the direction of the smoke blowing from his cremation, the direction where he was looking when he died, and oracles' visions, including at Lhamo Latso, a lake considered holy in Tibet.
Once potential candidates are identified, they undergo a series of tests to confirm their identity as the reincarnation. Candidates are usually young boys born at about the time of the previous Dalai Lama's death. But the current Dalai Lama has said that there is no reason why a woman cannot be the next reincarnation.
After a candidate is chosen, the child begins a rigorous education in Buddhist philosophy, scriptures and leadership responsibilities, preparing them to assume the role of both a spiritual and, historically, political leader of the Tibetan people.
Who is the current Dalai Lama and how was he chosen?
Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th and current Dalai Lama, was born as Lhamo Dhondup on July 6, 1935, to a farming family in a region now in Qinghai province. He was identified as a reincarnation when he was barely two years old.
After the death of the 13th Dalai Lama, the search party concluded a four-year-long quest after the toddler identified belongings of his predecessor with the phrase, 'It's mine, it's mine.' While the majority of Dalai Lamas have been born in Tibet, one was discovered in Mongolia, and another in a region that today lies in northeastern India.
In March 1959, after a failed Tibetan uprising against Chinese control, the Dalai Lama fled Lhasa in disguise, crossing the Himalayas on horseback and foot, eventually reaching India on March 31 that year. Nearly 100,000 Tibetan refugees live in different parts of India today, the community's largest exile population.
His escape marked the end of traditional Tibetan governance and the beginning of a life in exile, from where he led the Tibetan struggle for autonomy.
What has the 14th Dalai Lama said about his successor?
Addressing a beaming crowd of followers and monks in McLeodganj on Monday, June 30, the Dalai Lama, clad in his traditional red robes and yellow scarf, said: 'As far as the institution of the Dalai Lama is concerned, there will be a framework for it to continue.
'I think I have been able to serve the Dharma and sentient beings and I am determined to continue to do so,' he added, noting that at 90 years old, he feels 'physically healthy and well'.
He has also hinted about where to look for the next Dalai Lama. Noting that the purpose of a reincarnation is to carry on the work of the predecessor, the 14th Dalai Lama wrote in his book, Voice for the Voiceless, published in March 2025, that 'the new Dalai Lama will be born in the free world'.
In effect, that has meant that the Dalai Lama has decreed that the reincarnation would not be in China or China-controlled Tibet. He had earlier said that his incarnation could be found in India.
For Tenzin Jigme, a 39-year-old who lives in McLeodganj and works with the Tibetan government-in-exile, the mere thought of the Dalai Lama passing away is heavy. His voice broke as he said, 'We live in a free world because he led us here.'
'For all of us, living as refugees, His Holiness Dalai Lama is a fatherly figure,' Jigme told Al Jazeera. 'We need his reincarnation; look at the world, we need someone to teach us compassion.'
Was there a risk that there wouldn't be a successor?
The 14th Dalai Lama has suggested in the past that there may not be a successor at all.
In 2011, he said that when he turned 90, he would consult his fellow lamas and the Tibetan public and 're‑evaluate whether the institution of the Dalai Lama should continue or not'.
In 2014, during a visit to the 14th World Summit of Nobel Peace Laureates in Rome, the then-79-year-old spiritual leader said that whether another Dalai Lama would be enthroned after him would depend on the circumstances after his death and was 'up to the Tibetan people'.
'The Dalai Lama institution will cease one day. These man-made institutions will cease,' the Dalai Lama said in an interview with the BBC. 'There is no guarantee that some stupid Dalai Lama won't come next, who will disgrace himself or herself. That would be very sad. So, much better that a centuries-old tradition should cease at the time of a quite popular Dalai Lama.'
Dibyesh Anand, a professor of international relations at the University of Westminster and the author of Geopolitical Exotica: Tibet in Western Imagination, said the institution of the Dalai Lama will face immense uncertainty in the coming decades.
But, he said, 'the history shows that this institution has been more protean and resilient than politically power-based states.'
Subsequent exiled Dalai Lamas 'will not have political power in conventional sense'; however, the institution will remain 'symbolically the heart of the Tibetan nation and the most respected authority in Tibetan Buddhism,' he said.
What is China's position on this?
China insists that only its government has the authority to approve the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, treating it as a matter of national sovereignty and religious regulation. This position was cemented in a 2007 law, which mandates that all reincarnations of Tibetan 'living Buddhas' must be approved by the state and must follow Chinese laws, religious rituals and historical precedent.
Chinese officials have repeatedly stated that the next Dalai Lama must be born inside China, and any foreign-born or exile-appointed successor would be considered 'illegitimate'.
A key element of China's proposed process is the Golden Urn system, an 18th-century Qing Dynasty method in which the names of candidates are placed in a golden vessel and one is selected by lot.
The current Dalai Lama doesn't favour this method, arguing that it lacks 'spiritual quality'.
In March 2015, then Tibet Governor Padma Choling accused the Dalai Lama of 'profaning religion and Tibetan Buddhism,' adding that the Dalai Lama was trying to usurp Beijing's right to decide.
'If he says no reincarnation, then no reincarnation? Impossible. Nobody in Tibetan Buddhism would agree to that,' said Choling.
While talks over finding the next Dalai Lama traditionally occur after the death of the incumbent one, the Chinese position has left monks and Tibetans in exile worried that Beijing might try to hijack the institution.
The centrality of the Dalai Lama to the Tibetan national movement and his stature as a global icon is an irritant for Beijing, said Anand, the professor.
'This is a battle over legitimacy and not actual rule over territorial Tibet. Beijing seeks to win that battle of legitimacy but faces an institution and person in the 14th Dalai Lama that is beyond its control,' he told Al Jazeera.
Robert Barnett, a scholar of modern Tibetan history and politics and founder of Columbia University's Modern Tibetan Studies Program, said that some 'Chinese strategists see the succession issue purely as an opportunity to frustrate the exile project'.
Another reason could be the Chinese leaders' anticipation of another plausible Tibetan uprising. It helps Beijing to 'have a 'tame' Dalai Lama to dissuade Tibetans from protest,' Barnett told Al Jazeera.
Has China hijacked a selection before?
Yes. In 1995, the Dalai Lama recognised a young boy in Tibet as the reincarnation of the Panchen Lama – the second most important figure in Tibetan Buddhism. He was a six-year-old, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, the son of a doctor and a nurse from the Tibetan town of Naqchu.
Soon after, Chinese authorities took the boy into custody and relocated the family. Their whereabouts are not known since.
In his place, Beijing appointed its own candidate, a move widely rejected by Tibetan Buddhists in exile and many inside Tibet, who view the Chinese-selected Panchen Lama as illegitimate.
The disappearance of the Panchen Lama in 1995 was a turning point in Chinese-Tibetan political history, said Barnett.
'The Chinese side decided that it has to control not just which child should be chosen, but whether a lama can reincarnate, where he or she can reincarnate, who should search for them,' he said. The Chinese were clear that the Dalai Lama needed to be excluded from the process.
That episode is a key reason why the current Dalai Lama and Tibetans in exile are opposed to the selection of any future reincarnation inside China, including Tibet. The chosen child might simply be abducted, as happened 30 years ago.
Anand said that China's goal is to dishearten and divide Tibetans. 'If [China] cannot achieve it through winning hearts and minds, they'd do it through divide and rule, and this is how we should see the battle over reincarnation,' he told Al Jazeera.
A case of two rival Dalai Lamas
Tibet observers and scholars believe that after the 14th Dalai Lama's death, Tibetan Buddhists might well find a scenario where two rival successors jostle for legitimacy – an exiled leader, appointed by the lamas faithful to the incumbent Dalai Lama, and one appointed by the Chinese government.
It would be unprecedented in the history of Tibetan Buddhism, but 'is highly likely to occur,' said Barnett.
While the reality of two Dalai Lamas may not matter to exiled Tibetans from a religious perspective, it 'makes life very difficult for Tibetans inside Tibet who will be forced in huge numbers to publicly declare their loyalty to China over and over again'.
Barnett noted that Beijing could also use the succession issue as leverage to get foreign governments to marginalise organisations of Tibetans in exile in those countries.
Anand said that Beijing's insistence on its candidate 'will be a source of instability in China-Tibetan relations' and 'may come back to haunt the Chinese Communist Party'.
In an interview in March 2019, the Dalai Lama acknowledged that following his death, there could be two rival Dalai Lamas. 'In future, in case you see two Dalai Lamas come, one from here, in free country, one chosen by Chinese, then nobody will trust, nobody will respect [the one chosen by China],' he said.
'So that's an additional problem for the Chinese! It's possible, it can happen,' the Dalai Lama added, laughing.
Is the selection also a geostrategic issue?
It is, mainly for India and the United States.
For India, which hosts the Tibetan government-in-exile, the succession of the Dalai Lama intersects with national security and its fraught border relationship with China.
New Delhi will want to carry on giving hospitality and refuge to the Dalai Lama and his followers, said Anand. He added that the 'Tibetan exiles in India offer a leverage and buffer to India vis-a-vis China's influence in the Himalayan region'.
The US's interest in Tibet dates back to the Cold War era, when the CIA backed Tibetan resistance against Chinese occupation, in the 1950s, including after the Dalai Lama's exile.
Washington has long shown bipartisan support for the religious autonomy of Tibetan Buddhists, including in choosing the next Dalai Lama.
In 2015, when China claimed authority to select the next Dalai Lama, US officials publicly rejected this, asserting that Tibetan Buddhists alone should decide. The most forceful position came in 2020 with the passage of the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA) under President Donald Trump.
The new US position explicitly supported the Dalai Lama's right to determine his own reincarnation and authorised sanctions on Chinese officials who interfered in the process.
The international support for the Tibetan right to decide on the institution of the Dalai Lama, Anand said, 'is going to play out in geopolitical rivalry between the US and China as well as China and India in the future'.