Study exposes hidden danger that could wipe out household savings: 'The economic impacts ... could be even worse'
A study by researchers from the University of New South Wales, published in Environmental Research Letters, found that if global temperatures rise by 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit), the average person's wealth could shrink by 40%.
Earlier models had predicted smaller effects, but the Guardian reported that the financial toll on ordinary people could be much worse. Even if warming is limited to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the study estimates global gross domestic product per person could drop by 16% — a steep jump from a previous 1.4% forecast.
Led by Dr. Timothy Neal, the UNSW team updated traditional economic models to factor in threats like extreme weather disasters and supply chain failures. Older forecasts assumed that damage in one region could easily be balanced out by gains elsewhere.
But extreme weather doesn't stay local. A flood in one area can lead to food shortages, shut down factories, and disrupt trade across the globe. By weaving these real-world risks into their model, the researchers offer a clearer and more urgent view of how climate change could reshape economies.
Understanding these risks changes how people think about the cost of action. For years, many models painted a softer picture of climate damage, making it seem like the price of inaction was manageable.
Mark Lawrence, a professor of practice at the University of Adelaide, supported the new findings, saying in the Guardian, "If anything, I believe the economic impacts [of climate change] could be even worse." His warning lines up with concerns from Swiss Re, one of the world's largest reinsurers, which projects that unchecked global heating could slash global GDP by $23 trillion by 2050.
Across the world, weather disasters are already hurting crops, pushing food prices higher, and hitting communities hard. Climate-linked trade disruptions are putting strain on economies today, a reminder that faster action can't wait.
Families are already feeling the early costs of rising global temperatures. Grocery bills are climbing, energy costs are rising, and insurance premiums are getting steeper. If supply chains continue to break down, the price of everyday goods could keep going up.
However, there are ways to slow the damage and protect both the environment and every family's future. Investing in solutions that address various issues linked to a changing climate and supporting the development of better food systems can help create a cleaner and more secure future.
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