The Covid files: what the government was told and how it coped in the early days of the pandemic

Irish Times

a day ago

In political and policymaking circles, it is sometimes called 'the centre': the small group of people who run the
country
.
It doesn't have a set membership but would always contain the political leadership of taoiseach and tánaiste and those around them, and the very top echelons of the Civil Service; the ministers for finance and public expenditure are usually involved, the wider cabinet and senior civil servants periodically so.
During the
Covid
pandemic, decisions were made at the centre of
government
that upended daily life. The State faced a seismic challenge – a fundamental, even existential threat.
A trove of unpublished documents released under the Freedom of Information Act shows the information that was being given to the centre of government as it made these decisions.
For the most part, they are papers prepared for cabinet, or its Covid-19 subcommittee. These secret materials are among the most closely guarded documents generated by the government of the day, guiding decision making with unvarnished opinions and analyses deemed too sensitive for public eyes – only becoming eligible for release under Freedom of Information laws after five years have elapsed.
They show what the centre was seeing – and what it was thinking.
Over a period of three months, in February, March and April 2020, as the Republic careened towards and then endured lockdown, they show how the State mobilised, how lockdowns became a reality, and the first hints of the complex and overlapping problems left behind.
'Adequately prepared'
As the cabinet met on January 28th, 2020, the dust was settling on a seven-way leaders debate held the previous night on the Claire Byrne TV show on RTÉ. The Republic was in the midst of a general election campaign as minister for health Simon Harris updated ministers on an outbreak of the 'novel coronavirus' in Wuhan, China.
On New Year's Eve, China had reported a 'cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown cause' with a 'common reported link' to the wholesale seafood market in Wuhan.
Wuhan Hygiene Emergency Response workers leafe the Huanan seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China, on January 11th, 2020. Photograph: Noel Celis/AFP/Getty
The cabinet memo – a document distributed to ministers updating them with key information and decision points – outlined a 'moderate likelihood' of further case importation to the EU.
Measures to limit the risk of spread should be implemented, the World Health Organisation said, but 'without unnecessary restriction of international traffic'. The previous day, the first meeting of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) led by Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan, that assessed the threat from the pandemic and offered advice to Government, had been held.
Cabinet was told that measures put in place to ensure the State was 'adequately prepared to address any potential cases' were 'appropriate'.
Three weeks later, on February 18th, with the election over, testing was under way in the Republic – with the cabinet told 76 suspected cases had been assessed.
Dr Tony Holohan, chair of Nphet, delivers a media briefing in the Department of Health in early 2020. Photograph: Crispin Rodwell
The risk to healthcare systems and the population in the EU was low to moderate, or low, ministers were told. The system was beginning to dial in – various internal groups were being established, and travel advice was updated for China – six citizens had requested evacuation from the country, the cabinet was told, while officials had met the Chinese ambassador in Dublin. Changes to the infectious diseases regulations were discussed, with an emphasis on communications.
On March 2nd there was clear uptick in activity. A special cabinet committee was established. The first case of Covid had been identified in Ireland on February 29th, associated with travel from Italy, with contact tracing deployed.
The risk of widespread and sustained transmission in the EU was now 'moderate to high', as was the risk for healthcare systems.
For the first time, a pattern in the State of 'containment, mitigation and spread' was discussed, which could 'likely follow similar patterns in other jurisdictions'. The Ireland-Italy Six Nations rugby match had been cancelled on February 25th.
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It was clear from the message to cabinet that more stringent measures could be on the way, including 'workplace measures or school closures ... and possibly movement and travel restrictions'.
Nonetheless, the cabinet was told that 'it is not anticipated that some of the more extreme measures applied in some countries ... would be appropriate or necessary in Ireland'.
March, 2020: A billboard in Naples raising awareness to the measures being taken to fight the spread of Covid-19. Photograph: Carlo Hermann/AFP/Getty
But paragraphs later, the memo detailed a toolkit that included closure of childcare, schools, shopping centres, workplaces, churches, funerals, transport; there would be economic consequences as parents stayed home – 'remote working' was mentioned for the first time – as was the need for more consideration of 'payment of self-isolated employees'.
There was a warning that in due course decisions might be needed on 'storing and stockpiling of food and medical supplies; on restrictions of purchasing of items to avoid panic buying'.
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There were economic warnings too, with the Republic's small open economy vulnerable to a slowdown in trade, and the risk of market turbulence, disrupted supply chains and debt servicing costs were spelt out.
Another cabinet meeting the following day was told it was 'simply not possible' to define a 'worst case' scenario for the economy as officials worried about the labour market, damage to growth, and an impact on the Irish economy which 'could be even worse' than that impacting the rest of the globe.
'Hospitals will not withstand the demands'
Six days later, the cabinet committee was briefed again. The gravity of the situation was now undeniable, as the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, prepared to depart for the United States as part of the St Patrick's Day diplomatic charm offensive.
The St Patrick's Day festival in Dublin had already been cancelled as concerns grew. Within days, Varadkar would cut that visit short as restrictions were imposed on Ireland. On Sunday, March 8th, two days before he travelled, a government action plan was given to the cabinet committee.
Regular and 'traditional' healthcare responses to infectious diseases 'will not be sufficient', the committee was told, while if community transmission occurred 'the hospital system will not withstand the demands, regardless of what additional capacity is put in place'.
Officials advised the 'immediate decanting of hospitals' – clearing people out of acute settings, often to nursing homes, in a move which would later be blamed for the spread of Covid into these vulnerable places.
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The costs were also becoming clear – some €435 million was needed by the HSE, while the paper also talked about emergency measures to increase capacity like 'field hospitals'. The impact of the crisis on other forms of healthcare, such as cancer care, dialysis, transplants and obstetrics was also becoming clear.
A paper on the economic implications called for the deployment of 'automatic stabilisers' as 'the first line of fiscal defence'; the State would spend money, huge amounts, allowing the 'headline budgetary position deteriorate' as the economy slowed.
Cabinet that day decided on a further €2.4 billion in sick pay and illness benefit, and a €200 million fund for businesses. Two days later, Ireland recorded its first Covid death.
The following day, Varadkar, on his St Patrick's visit to the US, gave his famous address on the steps of Blair House in Washington DC opposite the White House: schools were closed, as were crèches and universities. It was the reality of lockdown.
Speaking in Washington DC Taoiseach Leo Varadkar outlined the series of new measures to combat the spread of coronavirus . Video: RTE
On St Patrick's Day itself, Cabinet was approving emergency legislation allowing the prohibition of events, travel restrictions, and the detention and isolation of people who were a potential source of Covid-19, as well as expanding illness benefit. The legislation was to be passed at lightening speed, by March 20th.
Memos were presented to cabinet at a similar pace – not being shared for observations with other ministers beforehand, due to time pressure, a big departure – even more so given the scale of the decisions being taken.
Within days, changes were approved that would challenge and alter the political, economic and social life of the State. The
Junior Cert and Leaving Cert
practical and oral exams were cancelled; evictions were banned; retired defence forces members and medics were permitted to re-enlist; ferry companies were subsidised as freight and passenger numbers collapsed.
And everywhere money flowed: a week after St Patrick's Day, the
Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme
(TWSS), which would support salaries and keep employees tethered to their jobs, and the enhanced Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) were approved – the latter with an estimated cost of between €2.1 billion and 3.9 billion. At a minimum, the government thought that 500,000 jobs could be lost, the documents show.
April, 2020: The entrance to the coronavirus test centre on Sir John Rogersons Quay in Dublin. Photograph: Gareth Chaney/Collins
It was estimated that between 10 and 20 percentage points of gross national income (GNI) – the economic metric that measures the size of the domestic economy, excluding multinationals – would be added to the national debt, which would lead to lower spending and higher taxes in the future.
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The government also discussed the outright purchase of private hospitals, settling on a lease with a bill of €426 million.
By April 7th, the combined cost of the TWSS and PUP was estimated to be between €4 billion and €4.5 billion over just 12 weeks; some €2 billion had been allocated to health responses; businesses had been advanced €400 million in liquidity support.
On the same day, the cabinet was told that the Garda reported compliance with guidelines and a positive response, but noted that there was a measure of complacency as good weather combined with prolonged restrictions. There was also an 'emerging demand ... regarding people gathering at hospitals'.
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Garda Commissioner Drew Harris recommended implementing regulations giving greater weight to Covid powers which had hitherto operated on an administrative basis – ie, without the regulations coming into force officially. However, Varadkar resisted in light of high levels of public compliance.
'Far more divisive'
On April 17th, the restrictions were extended to May 5th but there was a glimmer of light as Nphet reported to cabinet that there were 'encouraging signs' that the measures were having an effect.
Four days later, the public health side was holding firm – the disease was suppressed, with a reproduction rate below 1 – indicating it was receding in the community. But the cabinet was told it was 'too early' to consider relaxing measures.
Nonetheless, at this point the cabinet began to discuss the phased reduction of social distancing measures, conscious of 'increasing expectation' that at least some restrictions will begin to be lifted.
Lockdowns were beginning to chafe as the Garda reported complacency again. There were troubling signs as well that despite social cohesion, behind closed doors all was not well, with a 21 per cent increase in domestic violence complaints.
The legacy of lockdown, and a future dominated by trying to stamp out the disease with testing and tiered levels of restrictions, was also potentially darker. The initial swift and unprecedented phase, the cabinet was told, was 'experienced by everyone together and in a relatively unified spirit'
But what followed was a stark warning: 'The next phase has the potential to be far more divisive as the reality of the long-term implications sinks in.
'This includes unemployment, reduced income, increased debt, closure of businesses, reduced educational opportunities, restrictions on movement and social interactions, and ultimately the loss of loved ones.'
By mid-May, the pathway out of restrictions was mapped out and reopening began but it would be another 22 months before Nphet was disbanded. Photograph: Gareth Chaney/Collins
The documents reveal how the impact of Covid far exceeded what was initially imagined, but fell short of worst case scenarios, while still being an unprecedented shock.
The last document in the files released under FOI is a cabinet memo from April 28th. Two things were clear: Ireland would come out of restrictions, with detailed work under way in Nphet on a roadmap to ease constraints: but not yet.
'As of today,' the cabinet was told, 'there is no indication that the behaviour of the disease is in such a place as to enable any easing of the restrictions currently in place.'
By midway through May, the pathway out of restrictions was mapped out and reopening began. However, it would be another 22 months before Nphet was disbanded, a move that was widely seen as marking the end of the pandemic.
Despite the trauma of that spring of 2020, many more months awaited of restrictions being lifted and reimposed, a fraying – if not a breaking – of social cohesion; the tensions between Nphet and the government, the 'meaningful Christmas' that taoiseach Micheál Martin wanted the Irish people to have in 2020, the darkness of early 2021 as the second wave brought the highest number of deaths and the virus surged again through nursing homes, and the roll-out of vaccines which finally gave way to the return of normality.
The first phase was over, but what lay ahead was in fact the more damaging, more divisive part of the pandemic.