How Trump saved his big bill by killing a Venezuela oil deal
Facing a revolt from Miami Republicans, President Trump salvaged his giant spending plan in Congress late Wednesday by ensuring the death of a Chevron oil deal in Venezuela that the lawmakers lividly opposed.
Why it matters: Trump's decision was a matter of political necessity and a nod to his secretary of state, Marco Rubio — a longtime critic of Nicolas Maduro's socialist dictatorship in Venezuela and Chevron's oil export license that helps enrich the regime.
▪ Trump's move also offered a window into the last-minute dealmaking that saved his priority legislation in the House.
▪ 'Ultimately, he trusts Marco,' a senior White House official said of the president.
▪ 'The pro-Maduro Biden oil license in #Venezuela will expire as scheduled next Tuesday May 27th,' Rubio announced late Wednesday on X.
The intrigue: The decision marked an abrupt reversal of Trump's special Venezuela envoy, Ric Grenell, who'd announced the day before that the administration would grant a 60-day extension of Chevron's license to export oil from Venezuela.
▪ As a special envoy, Grenell wants to engage with Maduro.
▪ As secretary of state, Rubio wants to enforce policies on Venezuela set in Trump's first term.
▪ Grenell's announcement Tuesday blindsided officials at the White House, the Treasury and State departments, and Rubio's fellow Cuban-Americans from Florida in the House: Carlos Gimenez, Mario Diaz-Balart and Maria Elvira Salazar — all critics of Maduro's regime.
Zoom in: With a razor-thin GOP margin in the House, Speaker Mike Johnson and administration officials knew Wednesday they couldn't lose the three Miami representatives' votes on Trump's big tax-cut and spending bill. Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie was already a no for other reasons.
▪ 'We just got three new no votes on the 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' ' a second White House official groused Wednesday morning. 'The Cubans plus Massie kill the bill.'
▪ 'Marco was apoplectic,' a person who spoke with the secretary of state told Axios.
Zoom out: The Venezuelan and Cuban exile communities share a common bond — relatives who escaped leftist regimes. The Miami Cuban-American Republicans are under pressure at home over the Trump administration's deportation policies and its elimination of immigration protections for thousands of Venezuelans.
▪ As anti-socialist hardliners, they don't want Chevron to operate in Venezuela and enrich Maduro's regime, which is propped up by Cuba's intelligence services.
▪ In February, the lawmakers agreed to support Trump's budget plans in return for the president canceling Chevron's license, set to expire Tuesday.
▪ With that deadline in mind, Grenell negotiated with Caracas, secured the release of an American prisoner, and relayed Trump's interest in extending Chevron's license temporarily. But the timing of Trump's bill gave the Miami representatives leverage against those plans.
Inside the room: 'The Cubans didn't have to tell us they were a 'no' again. We just knew it,' said a third administration official involved in the discussions. 'We knew they wouldn't fold on this.'
▪ So Trump — who spent Wednesday afternoon arm-twisting and cajoling conservative House members to back his massive tax-cut and spending plan — had to engage with the Miami representatives as well.
Late Wednesday afternoon, Rubio arrived at the White House for an event honoring the University of Florida's national championship basketball team (Rubio is a Gator). Afterward, he huddled with Trump in the Oval Office to make his case against the oil deal.
▪ About 6 p.m., Gimenez — an occasional golfing partner of Trump's —called in by phone.
▪ Deputy White House Chief of Staff James Blair, a congressional liaison, was a constant presence.
▪ 'Marco spoke to [Trump] about why it's good policy. Blair emphasized the need to keep these members happy to get the bill passed. It was a tag-team effort,' a senior White House official said.
People briefed on the discussions told Axios that Rubio, Gimenez and White House officials who met with Trump countered the arguments by Grenell, Chevron and its legion of lobbyists and commentators who have warned that China would benefit from a U.S. withdrawal from the oil deal.
▪ They noted that China didn't significantly expand in Venezuela when Trump first slapped sanctions on Maduro's regime, which owes China as much as $10 billion.
▪ The oil market is almost glutted, and its $62-per-barrel price is about break-even for producers. So there's no crisis — and Venezuelan oil is more expensive to refine than others because it's so heavy and sulfurous.
▪ Finally, they reminded Trump that he'd given his word to the Miami-area lawmakers to end Chevron's deal with Venezuela.
▪ Gimenez declined to comment. Rubio couldn't be reached for comment.
After Wednesday's meeting, hours went by without word from Trump. The Miami representatives didn't want to push him, but they didn't want to get steamrolled, either.
▪ 'When you negotiate with Trump on something like this, you can't make it look like you're negotiating. You have to apply pressure but not say you're applying pressure. It's delicate,' a person involved in the talks said.
▪ Finally, at 10:57 p.m. Wednesday, Rubio posted his statement on X saying the Chevron lease would still expire Tuesday.
It was a sign to the three Miami lawmakers that Trump would honor his promise.
▪ Thursday morning, they voted yes on the president's big bill.
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