Airlines Face Uncertainty On Cuba Routes Amid New Trump Visa Policy

Forbes

12 hours ago

President Donald Trump has published a new proclamation restricting immigrant and non-immigrant visas for foreign nationals of certain countries considered high risk. While many countries impacted by the new policy have no existing air service ties, the new restriction could dampen demand on airline routes to Cuba, and lead to a reduction of U.S. airline services to the island.
With the new proclamation, the Trump administration hopes to address a perceived threat to the United States from countries that cannot provide adequate background information on their travelers and have an excessive visa overstay rate.
The Trump administration has announced a partial suspension of entry for nationals of Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkistan and Venezuela. However, only Cuba currently has scheduled air service to the United States.
According to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium, this year, there are over 12,800 scheduled flights between Cuba and the U.S., with over 2,037,000 seats. March and December are the busiest months for travel to and from the island nation. In March, airlines offered 1,120 flights with over 179,000 seats. There are 1,166 flights scheduled for December, offering over 183,000 seats.
American Airlines is the most invested U.S. carrier currently operating flights to and from Cuba. The airline has nearly 9,300 flights scheduled this year, offering over 1,460,000 seats. The airline has also capitalized on former president Biden's policy which allowed air service expansion beyond Havana. From Miami International Airport, American operates flights to six Cuban cities: Camaguey, Havana, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, Santa Clara, and Varadero.
Delta Air Lines, Southwest and United operate more limited services. Southwest offers over 1,450 flights and 255,150 seats on outbound and return flights between Tampa and Havana. Delta competes with American on flights between Miami and Havana, offering 1,460 flights this year, with a capacity of 233,600 seats. United Airlines provides 626 outbound and return flights from Houston to Havana this year, with over 88,800 seats.
In 2023, three U.S. airlines reduced or cut their services to Cuba due to softening demand from policy changes. As the Miami Herald reported, JetBlue ended its air services to Cuba in 2023. At the time, the airline stated:
'Demand for travel to the island has been significantly affected by changes to the regulatory landscape and restrictions on our customers' ability to enter Cuba. We look forward to resuming our service to Havana and continuing to pursue opportunities within Cuba should travel become more accessible in the future.'
Delta ended its flights from Atlanta to Havana in 2023 and reduced its flight frequencies from Miami. United Airlines had previously offered flights from New York's Newark International Airport to Havana but also cut these flights in 2023.
It is still unclear what impact these new restrictions might have on U.S. airline operations. Still, the airlines have maintained their current service based on an easing of restrictions during the Biden administration. If the new Trump policy makes it more difficult for Cubans to gain entry to the U.S., airlines may need to adjust their capacity again.
The entry of nationals of twelve countries—Afghanistan, Burma, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen—was fully suspended in Trump's latest pronouncement. Haiti is the only country on the fully banned list that has airline service to the United States. After a rise in violence in the country last year that saw gangs targeting aircraft at Port-au-Prince's Toussaint Louverture International Airport. The Federal Aviation Administration banned U.S. flights to Haiti in November of last year after gunfire struck three aircraft operated by Spirit Airlines, JetBlue and American Airlines.
Currently, Sunrise Airlines provides the only air service from Haiti to the U.S., flying from Cap-Haïtien Airport to Miami. Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows the airline ceased its flight services to Fort Lauderdale Airport in April and increased flight frequencies to Miami in June of this year. In all, the airline has 1,078 flights scheduled to the U.S. this year, with a capacity for 171,840 passengers.