Why is the Met Office adopting the language of climate alarmism?
Duh! Even if temperatures were not affected by greenhouse gases, which they are, the 34.7C (94.5F) recorded in St James's Park on Tuesday might have something to do with that weather station being a low-reliability 'class 5' site with an error rating of 'up to 5C'. It's next to a very busy tarmac path. Plus, it is in the middle of a city and therefore subject to a more general 'urban heat island' effect. Research by Arup reckons London's heat island is worth 4.5C extra warmth on average. So yes, the heat is indeed partly man-made – but not necessarily in the way the Met Office means.
Besides, it's not exactly unusual to have hot days in summer: it reached 36.7C (98.1F) in Northamptonshire in 1911. As the world gets slowly warmer, we will see more hot summer days, though not as much as we will see more mild winter nights: winter nighttime temperatures have risen faster than summer daytime ones, as predicted by the greenhouse effect, just as Arctic temperatures have risen faster than tropical ones.
The Met Office exists to forecast the weather. But increasingly it seems bored by the day job so it likes to lecture us about climate change. And here it seems to have been embarrassingly duped by activists. Go on its climate pages and you find a forecast for the year 2070, that summers will be between one and six degrees warmer and 'up to' 60 per cent drier, depending on the region. A lot of wriggle room in those caveats, note.
Then it admits: 'We base these changes on the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario.' Aha! Unbelievably, shockingly, this national forecasting body has chosen as its base case for the future of weather a debunked, highly implausible set of assumptions about the world economy that was never intended to be used this way.
RCP8.5 is one of five projected futures for the world economy this century, dreamt up by economists. Here is what it assumes. First, the world becomes addicted to coal, burning 10 times – yes, 10 times! – as much coal in 2100 as we did in 2000 and even using coal to make fuel for aircraft and cars. Yes: that is really what it says. It projects that fully half of all the world's energy will be supplied by coal in 2100.
Second, it assumes that the world population will have swelled to 12 billion people by 2100, way more than any demographer thinks is likely. Third, it assumes that innovation will somehow dry up so there's hardly any new technology to make our lives more fuel-efficient – and we won't even try to cut emissions. In short, this scenario is barking mad.
Don't take my word for it. Here's what Carbon Brief, an activist website, has to say: 'The creators of RCP8.5 had not intended it to represent the most likely 'business as usual' outcome… Its subsequent use as such represents something of a breakdown in communication between energy systems modellers and the climate modelling community.'
Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that RCP8.5 should not be used as a forecast. And here's its chief creator, Keywan Riahi: 'I wished I would have been clearer with what I meant by 'business as usual'.'
In 2020, even the ultra-alarmist BBC said RCP8.5 was 'exceedingly unlikely'. Yet here, five years later, we have the Met Office itself still basing its forecasts for 2070 on ludicrous assumptions. And no, this is no 'breakdown in communications': this is deliberately seeking extreme predictions to scare people and so get media attention. If they used more realistic assumptions, they fear, the future would sound less terrifying.
Come on, Met Office, do the decent thing and ditch the climate apocalypticism. If you must try to forecast the weather in 2070 – and for all your supercomputers, you generally admit you cannot reliably forecast the weather more than a week or two ahead – then use realistic assumptions. Even if it makes the future sound less scary.
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The Guardian
27 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Crete wildfire forces 5,000 to evacuate as Europe heatwave continues
A wildfire fanned by gale-force winds has forced the evacuation of about 5,000 people on the Greek island of Crete, authorities and hotel association officials have said, as large swathes of continental Europe baked in a punishing early summer heatwave linked to at least nine deaths. About 230 firefighters, along with 46 fire service vehicles and helicopters, were battling the blaze on Thursday after it broke out 24 hours earlier near Ierapetra, on the south-east coast of the island – the country's largest – threatening to engulf houses and hotels. A fire brigade spokesperson, Vassilis Vathrakogiannis, said: 'There are wind gusts in the area, some measuring nine on the Beaufort scale, triggering rekindling and hindering firefighting efforts.' He added that four settlements had been evacuated. The president of the regional hotels' association, Yorgos Tzarakis, said about 3,000 tourists and 2,000 residents had been moved, mostly overnight, as a precaution. A small number of people fled into the sea and were rescued by local fishermen and divers. Residents and tourists were taking shelter at an indoor stadium and some had left Crete by boat, authorities said. Local media reported some homes had been damaged. An estimated 5,000 more holidaymakers left south-east Crete independently. Ierapetra's mayor, Manolis Frangoulis, said firefighters were working to prevent flare-ups during a lull in high winds. 'Thankfully no one was hurt but it's a difficult situation,' he said. Like the rest of Crete, Ierapetra – a seaside resort with a permanent population of 23,000 – accommodates thousands of tourists in the summer. The island's arid, uneven landscape, criss-crossed by gullies, makes it hard for firefighters to tackle blazes. A separate fire was raging in the Halkidiki region of Greece, with 160 firefighters and 49 vehicles involved in the emergency response. In Turkey, thousands of people fled blazes in Cesme and Ödemiş in the western coastal province of İzmir. An elderly man died in the blaze near Ödemis, about 60 miles east of the city of İzmir, in one of three villages evacuated in the area. 'The village was evacuated but an elderly, bedridden patient could not be saved,' a local MP told Turkish TV. Vathrakogiannis said the risk of destructive wildfires remained 'very considerable' in July, the hottest month of the year in Greece, although the country had largely escaped the heatwave still gripping other parts of southern and central Europe. Nearly 500 firefighters were battling wildfires in eastern Germany that severely injured two emergency workers and forced the evacuation of more than 100 people near Gohrischheide, on the border between the states of Saxony and Brandenburg. The blazes had burned through hundreds of hectares of heathland and were still not under control on Thursday, with firefighters unable to tackle outbreaks on a former military training area with unexploded ammunition. Sign up to Headlines Europe A digest of the morning's main headlines from the Europe edition emailed direct to you every week day after newsletter promotion The worst of the weather appeared to be over in France, with the south-east the last area expected to record temperatures of up to 36C, but parts of Austria, Croatia, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Slovakia and Spain were all forecast to hit the mid-30s on Thursday. Italian authorities issued red alerts – meaning that the heat is so intense it poses a risk not just to the sick and elderly but the young and fit too – for 18 cities, including Bologna, Genoa, Milan, Palermo, Rome and Turin. Officials in Rome said temporary blackouts were possible as power consumption by air-conditioners surged. At least five people have died in the heatwave in Italy, including two, aged 75 and 60, on beaches in Sardinia. Temperatures on the island, where wildfires have been raging, have exceeded 40C in recent days. In Genoa, an 85-year-old man died of heart failure in hospital. A 47-year-old construction worker died near Bologna and a 53-year-old woman died in Palermo. A measure halting outdoor work, for example, on construction sites and farms, during the hottest part of the day has taken effect nationwide, although it is not an obligation and many people are continuing to work their normal hours. In Spain, the media reported that the two victims of a wildfire that consumed more than 5,500 hectares of mostly agricultural land in Torrefeta i Florejacs in Lleida province were aged 32 and 45, and had died of smoke inhalation. Temperatures in central Albania reached 40C on Thursday, and with little rain expected until September fears are rising for local agricultural output. Serbia's state meteorological institute also warned 'extreme drought' was affecting crops. Scientists have said Europe's heatwaves have arrived earlier than usual this year, with temperatures surging by up to 10C in some regions as warming seas encourage the formation of a 'heat dome' over much of the land mass, trapping hot air.
BBC News
2 hours ago
- BBC News
Why have record number of seeded players lost at Wimbledon?
Seismic shocks have been a hot topic in the opening days at Wimbledon - and for good reason. With just one second-round match to conclude at the end of Thursday's play, a record 36 seeded players had been eliminated - surpassing the tally of 35 at this stage of the 2020 French unprecedented number of high-profile exits have opened up the men's and women's singles draws, with French Open champion Coco Gauff and men's third seed Alexander Zverev among the highest-ranked players to exit.A record total of eight top-10 seeded players dropped out in the first round - the most at any major tournament since the start of the Open era in one of the top-five seeded women's players - world number one Aryna Sabalenka - has progressed to the third round for just the second time in the Open of the top-10 ranked players exited in the first round at a Slam for only the third time in the past 25 years, before British fourth seed Jack Draper also fell in the second what could explain it? Unusual conditions Players had to contend with sweltering conditions as Wimbledon recorded its hottest opening day on record, with temperatures exceeding 30C on Monday and were given ice packs, cold towels and plenty of water to help cope with the conditions - but some still reported struggling and Briton Cameron Norrie admitted the weather "was a bit of a shock to the system".In addition to the heat, its effect on the grass courts and their interaction with the balls has been a source of frustration for some 27th seed Denis Shapovalov, knocked out in the first round, said: "The balls are the worst, the grass tour has turned into a joke. This isn't grass any more, the court is slower than a clay one."Slower courts allow players more time to play the ball, leading to longer rallies and physically-draining longer Wimbledon's head groundsman Neil Stubley agreed the heat has contributed to slower courts as the dry grass grips the ball more, he felt criticism of the bounce was unfair. 'Heavy and slow' balls What about the balls then? Is there anything different there?After her outstanding win over former champion Marketa Vondrousova, British number one Emma Raducanu spoke about the influence she felt they were having."You get a little bit extra with the new balls [but] I feel like once they're a few games or a few long rallies in, these Slazenger balls really fluff up quite quickly and get heavy and slow," she said. "I think it benefits the bigger hitters because they have time to load and give it some."Raducanu's coach Mark Petchey previously claimed heavier tennis balls are affecting her ability to compete with the game's big to Wimbledon, no changes have been made to the specification of the ball since 1995, but players should expect the ball to feel lighter and faster on a warm, dry day, compared to heavier and slower on a cold, damp day. Short grass season One factor that is unchanged but remains an issue for players is the quick turnaround before - and short nature of - the grass court lasts for less than 50 days, beginning for some before the conclusion of the French Open at the start of June and ending with Wimbledon on 13 managed to enter just one grass court tournament - losing in the Berlin Open first round - before Wimbledon, having won the French Open on 7 June."I think this Slam, out of all of them, is the most prone to having upsets because of how quick the turnaround is from clay," said the American second tournament director Jamie Baker told BBC Sport: "Definitely, the players spend less time on grass than they do on other surfaces. I think the big macro picture is just the calendar is too long and the players are playing too much." Player burnout Concerns have long been raised by high-profile players regarding the Casper Ruud criticised the ranking system earlier this year, describing it as "a rat race", while Australian world number nine Alex de Minaur put his early French Open exit down to "feeling burned out".After her second-round loss, women's fourth seed Jasmine Paolini said she needed to try to "reset" mentally, adding: "I feel a little bit tired right now. It was two intense months before here."On that topic, Raducanu said: "It's a mentally really challenging sport. What I've found [useful] is trying to surround yourself with good people, trying to win the day and focus on the process as much as possible. It's really difficult to take your joy from the results because it's so up and down. It's a rollercoaster."German Zverev, the highest-ranked casualty in the men's draw so far after a five-set loss to the 72nd-ranked Arthur Rinderknech, also spoke openly about finding himself "in a hole", saying he felt "very alone" out on the court and has struggled mentally since losing the Australian Open final to Jannik Sinner in January. The domino effect Could the sight of other top seeds going out cause others to fear the same fate, while giving lower-ranked players greater belief? Still in contention after coming back from a set down in her opener, American sixth seed Madison Keys said: "I think when you are sitting and watching everyone kind of fall, it adds a little bit of stress to the situation. I was pretty close in my first round, so I feel like I dodged a bullet a little bit."In addition to the short grass season and demanding schedule, American former player Tracy Austin also pointed to the increasing depth in both the men's and women's games, with lower-ranked players believing they can upset the top the stronger competition, Frances Tiafoe, the 12th seed beaten by Norrie in the second round, said: "You have [unseeded] floaters and some young guys playing well. The game is just really tough, it has incredible depth right now. If you're not ready to go, you're going to lose. It seems like [some of the seeded] guys weren't ready to go."Former British number one Jo Durie added: "I think everybody in the locker room is thinking, 'I have got a chance at this tournament'. I really do think more seeds are going to fall." Who might benefit? In a quarter of the women's draw which included the eliminated Paolini and Chinese fifth seed Zheng Qinwen, American Amanda Anisimova has perhaps benefited 13th seed would not face anyone ranked higher than 30th seed Linda Noskova until the semi-finals, where she could meet world number one Sabalenka - although the unseeded Naomi Osaka, a four-time major winner, remains in her the men's singles, Russian Karen Khachanov can reach the quarter-finals without facing a fellow seed, following defeats for Zverev, ninth seed Daniil Medvedev, 16th seed Francisco Cerundolo and former runner-up Matteo could also make it to the quarter-finals without encountering another seed, with Brazilian teenager Joao Fonseca or qualifier Nicolas Jarry awaiting in the fourth round if the Briton can first overcome Mattia 2002 and 2019, men's singles seedings were determined by a surface-based formula reflecting recent grass court achievements, before it aligned with the world rankings used for the women's whether the amount of early shocks this year provides a case for bringing that back, former world number five Durie said: "I do think there should be a consideration because grass is really unlike all the other surfaces. I think it was a good thing at the time. It would be interesting if they brought that back."
Daily Mail
2 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Two dead in Turkey after wildfires ripped through villages and saw 50,000 evacuated as blazes flared in Crete amid Europe's heatwave hell
Two people have died in wildfires that ripped through Turkey as blazes erupted in Crete amid Europe's heatwave hell. One elderly victim died in a fire near Odemis, around 60 miles east of Izmir, in one of three villages evacuated in the area, Turkish lawmaker Salih Uzun told Halk TV. 'The village was evacuated but an elderly, bedridden patient could not be saved,' said Uzun. A forest worker in the same area died as he battled the blazes, the country's agriculture minister Ibrahim Yumakli said on X. Turkey, which was spared the recent heatwaves that gripped the rest of southern Europe, has been battling the effects of a long-term drought brought on by climate change. On Monday, more than 50,000 people were evacuated, mostly in the Izmir area but also from the southern province of Hatay, the AFAD disaster management agency said. Another major fire raged near Cesme, west of Izmir, which began late on Wednesday and forced the evacuation of a further three villages. 'The biggest problem is the wind speed of up to 53mph which is causing the fire to spread very quickly. And it constantly changes direction,' Izmir governor Suleyman Elban said. The highway linking Izmir to Cesme temporarily closed Thursday afternoon, but was reopened in the evening, Elban said on X. In both places, a total of 'nine planes, 22 helicopters and 1,100 (fire trucks and other) vehicles are intensively fighting the fires', the governor told reporters. He said both fires in the province, as well as those that began at the weekend and were brought under control, 'were caused by power cables'. Earlier, two other fires broke out - one in the southern resort of Antalya and the second in Istanbul's Sultan Gazi forest. They were quickly contained by firefighters, officials said. Footage from Antalya showed flames raging in a forested area near a residential area in Lara, a popular tourist resort with many large hotels, but a municipal official told AFP it was under control. Since Friday, hundreds of fires have been reported across drought-hit Turkey, fuelled by high winds. It comes after a survivor of the deadly Hatay quake in February, Aysel Erbas, 57, has now faced a second tragedy as the recent Turkey wildfires destroyed her belongings while she was preparing to move into her newly built home. The blaze broke out out on June 30 in the Karaali neighborhood and spread rapidly to six nearby districts due to strong winds. Although firefighting teams have now brought the fire under control, cooling operations and damage assessments are ongoing in the affected areas. 'I was cleaning the kitchen, closing windows to prevent dust, when I saw smoke everywhere and had to run outside,' she told Daily Sabah. 'I lost my phone and all my belongings inside the house. I could only put out the sparks with the small amount of water I had. 'Everyone was trying to survive amid the fire, but thankfully, some neighbors came to help. I was later taken to an ambulance after possibly inhaling smoke,' she added. According to figures on the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) website, there have been 90 wildfires in Turkey so far this year that have ravaged almost 87,000 acres of land. The figure on Monday was over 37,000 acres destroyed in 65 fires. Citing forestry ministry figures, meteorologist Ismail Kucuk told AFP that '90 percent of forest fires' were due to man-made causes. Power cables posed a risk if they were not properly maintained, said Kucuk, secretary general of Turkey's chamber of metrology engineers. In some regions, cables broke easily because they had not been maintained since electricity distribution companies had been privatised, he said. Experts say human-driven climate change is causing more frequent and more intense wildfires and other natural disasters, and have warned Turkey to take measures to tackle the problem. The Turkey blazes comes as a rapidly spreading wildfire on the Greek island of Crete today triggered widespread evacuations of tourists, hotels and homes. The blaze, which sparked in the mountains between the villages of Ferma, Achila and Agia Fota late Tuesday, was whipped up by powerful winds and tore through Crete's coastal areas yesterday. Authorities said evacuations were ordered at three sites outside the port of Ierapetra on the island's south coast as the inferno raged out of control overnight Wednesday into this morning. Around 230 firefighters were operating in the area overnight to try and contain the blaze. This morning, 10 water-dropping aircraft were dispatched to fly regular sorties over Crete, with reinforcements sent from Athens. People living in the area support the teams by carrying water to the area with their tractors as smoke rises from burning trees while air and land intervention continues against the fire that broke out in the forest area in Cesme district of Izmir According to figures on the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) website, there have been 90 wildfires in Turkey so far this year that have ravaged almost 87,000 acres of land Reports of the number of people evacuated vary, but the president of a hotelier's association this morning told Protothema that 5,000 people - mostly foreign tourists - were moved out of homes and hotels in what is one of Greece's most popular holiday hotspots. Fire brigade spokesmen and civil protection officials have so far confirmed around 1,500 evacuees were forced to leave their accommodation. Others stranded on the beach were whisked away by boats and rescue vessels. Homes were reported damaged as flames swept through hillside forests, fanned by strong winds, and emergency services reported that several people were transported to hospital with respiratory issues. 'It's a very difficult situation. The fire is very hard to contain. Right now, they cannot contain it,' Nektarios Papadakis, a civil protection official at the regional authority, said.
