What is a recession? Here's what to know amid tariff talks, what it could mean for Oklahoma
President Donald Trump declined to say if the United States could see a recession even while the country faces trade wars over tariffs, rising inflation and more.
During Fox's 'Sunday Morning Futures' filming about the possibility, Trump said he 'hates to predict things like that.'
"There is a period of transition," he told Fox host Maria Bartiromo, "because what we're doing is very big."
Following that, Monday's U.S. stocks opened lower as investors considered the risk of a recession, given Trump's inability to clarify.
Around 9:05 a.m. CT, the broad S&P fell by 1.79%, the Dow dropped by .85%, and the Nasdaq was lowered by 2.77%, adding to the country's already volatile stock market.
Economists with the New York Federal Reserve (The Fed) have a few concerns amid the presidential transition, decisions like layoffs, and tariff battles.
Here's what to know about a recession and if America is headed that way soon.
In simple terms, a recession is when the economy shrinks. But recessions are not simple things.
During recessions, economic activity declines across the board, lasting months to several years. Economic activity, along with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment rates, consumer spending, retail sales and industrial production, is a factor in deciding if a recession is occurring.
Related: What jobs are the most protected from a recession?
Typically, it is a product of the economy shrinking due to a lack of consumer spending and business investment. What follows is company layoffs, slow hiring, rising unemployment and stalling wage growth.
Minor recessions can cost the economy nearly 2 million jobs, according to USA Today reports. Severe recessions can result in up to 4 million jobs lost.
Read more: When was the last recession? Here's a list of the most recent economic downturns.
Economists have been forecasting a recession for some time now, but as it currently stands, the country is not in one. Economists are not able to predict precise moments when a recession begins; however, it is predicted that a recession could begin sooner than initially believed.
Fifty-four percent of economists at companies and trade groups predict the chances of a downturn in the next 12 months is 50% or less. Meanwhile, 44% percent believe there is a "better than even chance of a slump," according to a survey conducted April 4-12 by the National Association of Business Economics.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the last U.S. recession occurred during the COVID pandemic in 2020, when millions of Americans lost jobs and large-scale shutdowns took place. It only lasted a matter of months, however.
Before that, the last recession felt in the U.S. was the "Great Recession," which occurred between 2007 and 2009. It was the most significant economic downturn since the Great Depression.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: What is a recession? Tariff talk sparks worry, what to know in Oklahoma
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