Ireland going backwards on emissions target
Laura Burke, Director General of the EPA, discusses their latest Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections report.
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The Irish Sun
12 hours ago
- The Irish Sun
Putin's chilling plot to march 10,000 troops into ANOTHER European nation revealed by its PM… & it could spiral into WW3
RUSSIA reportedly plans to deploy 10,000 troops into a breakaway region of another Eastern European nation - igniting fears of Putin's war spilling further across the continent. Moldova's Prime Minister has warned the Kremlin wants to march troops into Transnistria - a Moscow-friendly enclave that's internationally recognised as part of Moldova. Advertisement 7 Cars wait in line at the crossing point between the self-proclaimed republic of Transnistria and Moldova Credit: AFP 7 Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean speaks during a press conference Credit: EPA 7 Russian troops have been based in Transnistria since 1992 Credit: Reuters 7 Russian servicemen walking along at an area in the Kursk region, Russia Credit: EPA 7 The small landlocked region, sandwiched between Ukraine and the rest of Moldova, has been Transnistria receives significant economic and military support from Moscow, and the region's politicians have voiced their intent for it to become part of Russia. The region's location between the pro-Europe governments in Moldova and Ukraine make it impossible for Putin to get soldiers in at present. While Moldova currently has an EU-friendly government, its PM has said Russia is meddling in its upcoming election this September. Advertisement read more on russia Prime Minister Dorin Recean told the FT this is likely in the hope that a more pro-Kremlin government might allow for Russian troops to be sent to Transnistria. "This is a huge effort to undermine Moldovan democracy," he told the paper. "They want to consolidate their military presence in the Transnistrian region." Russian troops have been based in Transnistria since 1992, when the Kremlin supported the region in its war of independence from Moldova. Advertisement Most read in The US Sun However, the numbers have substantially wound down over the years, with there currently only being about 1,500 soldiers fighting under the Russian banner. But only a few of these will have actually been sent by Moscow, with most being locals who signed up. Deranged Putin lays out wish list of 'surrender demands' for Ukraine… despite being humbled by Russia's 'Pearl Harbour' Transnistria isn't internationally recognised as an independent state, and is not a member of the UN. Think tank The Institute for the Study of War forecast last October that Russia might use its ties to Transnistria "to establish long-term influence over Moldovan domestic and foreign policies". Advertisement Recean further highlighted the ominous military threats to Ukraine and NATO that could arise from extra Russian troops in the region. Its location to Ukraine's southwest could raise fresh headaches for Kyiv if Russia used Transnistria to open up a new front in the war. "You can imagine with 10,000 troops, what the leverage and pressure would be on the southwestern part of Ukraine," he said. But Recean also noted the area's proximity to Romania , which is a NATO country. Advertisement If Russian forces threatened or attacked Romania - or any other NATO member - then the entire alliance would be obliged to come to its aid. NATO Article 5 sets out that an attack on one member state is an attack on all, meaning Russian attacks against a NATO country could quickly spiral into all-out war. Transnistria's history Transnistria is a tiny slither of land along Moldova's border with Ukraine The region has been controlled by Russian backed separatists for decades following the collapse of the Soviet Union. It declared independence in 1990, which was followed by a war that saw Russia support Transnistria's independence. Moscow has maintained a strong military presence in the territory since 1992. Many of Transnistria's political leaders have long voiced their intent for the region to become a part of Russia. But it still remains internationally recognised as part of Moldova - a country that seeks closer co-operation with the EU. Transnistria has a population of around 465,000. Fears of a war between the West and Russia over Transnistria have been amplified by the separatist region's leader Vadim Krasnoselsky. He told the Russian TASS news agency: "A war in Transnistria would mean a direct conflict between Russia and NATO. Advertisement "I don't have the slightest doubt about it. Everything is closely intertwined here. "Both Romania, a NATO member, and the Russian Federation have interests here." Recean added that the 10,000-troop figure was based on intelligence assessments. "Currently, their forces there are almost meaningless," he said. Advertisement "But with a higher military presence in Transnistria that a Russia-leaning government can allow for, they can consolidate." Moldova was part of the Soviet Union before its collapse in 1991. In recent years, it has sought to pursue closer ties with the European Union, and became an official candidate to join the EU in 2022. A referendum held last year committing Moldova on its path to EU membership passed by just 0.7% of the vote amid what was widely believed to be a Russian interference campaign. Advertisement Recean told the FT that Russia spent the equivalent of 1% of Moldova's GDP on influence campaigns in 2024. 7 A billboard reading 'Russia in our hearts' sits on the side of a road in the town of Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria Credit: AFP 7 Russian servicemen riding atop a self-propelled gun at an area in the Kursk region, Russia Credit: EPA
Irish Times
13 hours ago
- Irish Times
Commitment to climate action hard to find in Government
The programme for government by this Fianna Fáil - Fine Gael Coalition may have been written this year but, from a climate perspective, it could be a document from a decade ago. A simple comparison with the 2020 document gives a striking contrast. Cycling and bikes were mentioned in that document almost 50 times; this time it's down to 11 and most of them relate to tourist greenways or the bike-to-work scheme, both long-established policies. The references to forestry , woodlands and afforestation have fallen from 50 to 11; there are absolutely no mentions of peatlands, bogs and rewetting, compared to 10 in 2020. The word 'sustainable' is used 46 times in the document, compared to 75 five years ago. READ MORE Professor Diarmuid Torney: 'It is hard to see how these targets are going to be met' 'There is a lot of aspiration but little by way of concrete details of how we are going to meet our targets,' said Professor Diarmuid Torney, director of the DCU Centre for Climate and Society. 'The programme recommits to the big-picture targets, but if you start to drill into the detail of the different areas, it is hard to see how those targets are going to be met. 'And that's against the backdrop of EPA [Environmental Protection Agency] projections that the State is on track to get a little over halfway to the 2030 target,' he said. The EPA report, published last week, made for stark reading. The main conclusion of the report was that, with all existing measures, Ireland is projected to achieve a reduction of up to 23 per cent in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to a national target of 51 per cent. [ Ireland has a dismal amount of tree cover but 'wild' is partly between our ears Opens in new window ] Most sectors are on track to reduce emissions, including agriculture, which has reversed years of growing emissions. A reduction in nitrogen fertiliser use, better spreading technologies and liming programmes – to improve the overall health of soil – have contributed. There are some worrying outliers. Total emissions from the land sector are projected to increase by up to 95 per cent, the report found. Ireland's forestry is reaching harvesting age and will move from being a carbon sink to being a carbon source. To counter that there will be a need for increased afforestation, water table management on agricultural organic soils and peatland rehabilitation. But when the programme for government is scanned it is hard to see a tangible commitment to achieve that. To the dismay of environmentalists, Kerry TD Michael Healy-Rae, who wants to allow forestry on peatlands, was appointed Minister of State for Forestry. However, it's too early in his tenure to make any conclusions on what he will, or won't, do. The focus has pivoted to policies that will increase emissions, such as increasing the number of data centres, investing in roads, lifting the passenger cap The programme commits to the overall target of reducing emissions by 51 per cent by 2030 compared to 2018 levels and all the other high-level targets. They include 22 gigawatts (GW) from wind and solar energy: that's enough to power the entire State, accommodate new data centres and generate a surplus. But many of the targets of the 2020 document have disappeared. Unlike the last government, there is no commitment to a two to one ratio for public transport over roads, or a 20 per cent ring-fencing of the total transport capital budget to cycling and walking – some €360 million a year. Rewetting peatlands is gone from the programme for government. Photograph: Getty Images Rewetting peatlands, which stops the decomposition of peat and prevents harmful carbon emissions, is gone. Two pages on forestry in 2020 have been reduced to two paragraphs. However, it's not a total abandonment. The focus has pivoted to policies that will increase emissions, such as increasing the number of data centres, investing in roads, lifting the passenger cap in Dublin Airport, retaining the nitrates directive derogation, and a campaign to remove biogenic methane (emitted from ruminant livestock) from emissions calculations. 'If we were to take our commitments seriously, that would mean a significant ramping up of implementation, but also new policies and measures, and it's hard to find those in the programme for government,' said Torney. 'Reducing transport emissions is probably the most difficult because we have such an ingrained car dominance in our system' Last week, the secretary general of the Department of Environment, Climate and Energy Oonagh Buckley said that given the capacity of the grid, policymakers faced a stark choice between housing and artificial intelligence/data centres. Taoiseach Micheál Martin later took issue with the comments. 'I was at the event where she said that,' said Prof Torney. 'Statistics were shared [at that event] that 50 per cent of electricity generated in the Dublin region is now being consumed by data centres. I'm not sure that the average member of the public knows that.' The base point for the EPA projections is the performance of the last government rather than this one. That government did manage to achieve a 7 per cent reduction in overall emissions in 2023 but it was always known the hard slog would be in the last five years. Former leader of the Green Party Eamon Ryan. Photograph: Alan Betson/The Irish Times For former Green Party leader Eamon Ryan, some of the first gestures of the new Government did not bode well for climate action, such as its decision on a LNG [liquefied natural gas] storage facility, an emphasis on data centres and what he says is the lure of the 'smell of tar'. 'Reducing transport emissions is probably the most difficult because we have such an ingrained car dominance in our system,' said Ryan. 'The Bus Connects project is starting in Dublin but it really needs to accelerate. There's starting with two but we need them to start in groups of four. 'The same in Cork, Galway, Waterford and Limerick. We need them at speed and at scale. I don't see that happening.' Ryan claims the figures show the last government in which he was minister for the environment and climate 'delivered in the last five years'. 'Part of the reason is because the Greens were in government. The difficulty is that political science trumps climate science. 'What we did wasn't [electorally] successful for us ... political science is maybe telling this Government it shouldn't push so hard because of the [electoral] consequences.' Minister for Climate, Environment and Energy, Darragh O'Brien. Photograph: Conor Ó Mearáin/Collins Photo Agency Minister for Environment, Climate and Energy Darragh O'Brien has acknowledged that delivery must be accelerated to meet the 2030 targets. He points to 'significant investment' such as a €2.5 billion grid-upgrade programme, new interconnectors to the UK and France and the expansion of renewables through further support schemes for offshore wind and other renewable energy sources. The 2030 target for electric vehicles (EVs) is 945,000. At present the number is 125,000. O'Brien says after a dip the numbers are back on track with a 23 per cent leap in sales in April. Figures from the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) on Tuesday showed this increase was sustained in May with 12,392 new EVs being registered in the first five months of the year. [ EV Q&A: Why doesn't Ireland use roadside furniture for charging electric vehicles? Opens in new window ] 'The first meeting of the new Climate Action Programme Board was held last week, involving senior officials from all the main sectors. Its remit is clear: to focus on accelerated delivery of the actions needed to close the emissions gap,' he said. But objectively, the task facing O'Brien and the Government is daunting and will need radical policy changes if Ireland has any hope of coming close to reaching the targets. Professor Hannah Daly: 'You're talking about an increase in emissions in agriculture and almost a doubling of emissions from land use change by 2030' Hannah Daly, professor in sustainable energy and energy systems modelling at University College Cork, has said that even if all the current measures were implemented the gap could still be much bigger than is commonly spoken about. 'It's really alarming. You're talking about an increase in emissions in agriculture and almost a doubling of emissions from land use change by 2030 with existing, actual implemented policies, rather than the ones that are just spoken about,' she said. The programme for government contains strong language on commitments to phase out fossil fuel use, carbon budgets and the 2030 target, she said. 'But while you have this high-level commitment on paper it does not actually commit to the hard choices that are necessary,' she said. 'There's very little on agriculture as well. What's needed to fill that gap is just far more investment in clean energy transition and a halt in the support for the growth of carbon intensive industries.' This means a focus on dairy farming, flights at Dublin Airport and data centres, she said.
Irish Times
a day ago
- Irish Times
Q&A: What should we do about multiple climate risks threatening Ireland?
Climate risk is often perceived as a vague threat, something in the distant future, far away in another part of the world or unlikely to directly affect me. That is, until 'potential threats' suddenly happen, as increasingly is the case with a destabilised climate. The impact is immediate. Priorities suddenly change based on direct experience. This is particularly the case with extreme weather events, made worse by global warming. Storm Éowyn , which caused widespread destruction in January, illustrates the point in the Irish context. It soon became clear why 'adaptation' to minimise impacts from locked-in climate change matters, why building 'resilience' into critical infrastructure is a must to maintain vital public services. READ MORE The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has completed Ireland's first National Climate Change Risk Assessment. It confirms our climate is changing in line with global trends. Ireland's climate is becoming warmer, rainfall patterns are changing and sea levels are rising. This is reflected in the frequency of and severity of extreme weather events. Status red gale warnings are in place across Ireland as storm force winds buffet the country. It identifies 115 climate risks, 43 of which are significant; many requiring action within a short timeframe of less than five years. This provides a sound and systematic basis for identifying and prioritising what actions need to be taken to adapt to climate change. Where are the risks concentrated? Through an exhaustive process across government, State agencies, key sectors and other stakeholders, risks are categorised across the society and economy in the form of nine 'systems'. So 37 of the risks are associated with the built environment, 17 relate to health, 17 in biodiversity/ecosystems, 11 in food production and related supply chains, eight in marine and coastal systems, five in water security, three in economy/finance and two are 'social'. The 15 energy system risks are the most consequential as illustrated by Storm Éowyn, when power outages caused a 'cascading' effect, knocking out communications and water infrastructure. As the EPA highlights, a problem in one sector can quickly cause impacts in another. What are the most surprising aspects in terms of risk? What might not have been anticipated is the risk from 'extreme wind'. Risks of disruption and damage to energy transmission and distribution infrastructure and communication systems due to extreme wind should be 'priority risks' for Ireland, as they provide critical services and functions that other systems require to operate. While climate projections are uncertain on frequency and intensity of extreme wind events in the future, 'measures are deemed insufficient to offset current and potential future adverse impacts'. What are 'significant' climate risks? These are threats based on timing of impact and level of consequence; threats that could become more critical, and even catastrophic, by end of the century. If unaddressed, they are likely to arise in all carbon emissions scenarios, whether emissions remain high over the coming decades or are more moderate. What's not included in the analysis? The EPA does not assess factors such as urbanisation, pollution and population growth, which are likely to antagonise climate impacts as the century progresses. It doesn't go beyond Ireland, such as risks to global supply chains and food security arising from an overheating planet, though we rely heavily on imports of vegetables, fruits, grains, fertilisers and animal feeds. It does not assess the potential impact from a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, known as Amoc, which plays a significant role in shaping our climate by transporting warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. Is there any good news in the EPA assessment? Yes, the EPA identifies potential opportunities for Ireland from our changing climate. These include a longer season for outdoor activities, 'encouraging economic activity related to tourism due to higher average temperatures'. There is likely to be increased hydropower generation because of increased rainfall and greater shellfish growth and marine species diversity due to warmer seas. For farmers, a longer growing season and improved livestock nutrition and grazing is predicted because of higher average temperatures, while improved physical and mental health for people from spending more time outdoors is anticipated because of higher average temperatures. What should happen now? There is an onus now on Government departments, critical sectors and local authorities to update their adaptation plans based on the EPA's definitive assessment. They need to work together in a highly integrated way. In tandem with this, they will need to address knowledge gaps, spell out 'transition risks' as Ireland switches to a low-carbon economy and move with much more urgency in countering risk of 'compounding and interacting hazards (where multiple hazards occur at the same time, or sequentially, increasing the overall severity of risk)'. That is code for learn the obvious lessons from Storm Éowyn.
