Latest news with #LauraBurke
RTÉ News
3 days ago
- Business
- RTÉ News
EPA report lets cat out of the bag on greenhouse gas emissions
Confirmation from the Environmental Protection Agency over the past few days that Ireland has gone backwards on its greenhouse gas emissions targets is hugely disappointing. People are blue in the face, listening to government ministers and policy makers constantly highlighting the important of climate action and their commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Now however, the EPA has let the cat out of the bag. Despite all that talk, the gap to where Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions must be by 2030 is widening. And it is not widening by a little. It is widening by a lot. The legally binding target is for Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions to be 51% lower, in 2030, than they were in 2018. A year ago, EPA analysis suggested that if every realistic climate policy in the Climate Action Plan was delivered on time, ahead of 2030, it might be possible to cut emissions by 29%, at most. Now, after receiving updates from Government departments and agencies, the EPA says the maximum reduction achievable, is only 23%. Either number - a cut of 23% or 29% - represents a massive failure. There is the global warming potential, and the climate damage, caused by not cutting emissions fast enough. But there is also a huge cost to the taxpayer. Recent analysis from the Irish Fiscal Council and the Climate Change Advisory Council suggested it could cost the taxpayer up to €26 billion for carbon credits by 2030, to make up the shortfall envisaged last year. But now that the emissions gap is bigger, the bill to the taxpayer will be bigger too. This feels like some kind of disaster unfolding in slow motion. The focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation The key reason is that despite all the talk from politicians there is not enough focus on implementing and delivering the climate-related policies the government has signed up to. That is what Laura Burke, the Director General of the EPA, said when she launched the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections Report last Wednesday. "This highlights the economy-wide effort needed to decarbonise our society and the focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation." That was how she put it. A key paragraph on page 10 of the EPA report, goes right to the heart of why we are going backwards. Know first, that these latest emissions projections were done on the basis of the official "Climate Action Plan 2024", published at the end of 2023. On page 10 the EPA report explains that: "Climate Action Plan 2025 is not specifically referenced in this report as it had yet to be published during the preparation phase of the 2024-2055 projections. A review was undertaken and there are no significant additional measures in CAP 2025 therefore no major omissions in these projections." What this paragraph is saying is that, with so few years to go before the crucial 2030 deadline, an entire year has been allowed to pass without a single important climate initiative, or effort, having been added to the policy mix. Yet there is no time to waste. Notwithstanding the need to constantly come up with new policy initiatives, the number one thing should be to deliver, as quickly as possible, on the climate- related commitments already made. Delaying difficult but inevitable changes only makes them harder to implement. It will not make them go away. 'Sustainable transport' Climate Action Plan 2023 introduced a so-called "Avoid-Shift" policy on transport. The aim was to introduce behavioural change and sustainable transport measures to save 2 million tonnes of carbon emissions. Central to that was a commitment to increase the price of petrol and diesel out to 2030 to encourage people to choose other modes of transport. So far there is no sign of any willingness by Government to follow through on that. But if they are not going to do it, what are they going to do instead to deliver the promised emissions reduction? Last year the target was 945,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030. This year the EPA says the maximum possible is 640,750. Many observers doubt even that amount can be achieved - especially since tax incentives to encourage electric vehicle purchases have been reduced in recent years. What will the Government do to address that? There is also a commitment in the Climate Action Plan to use behavioural and sustainable transport measures to engineer a reduction in total vehicle kilometres travelled. We are still waiting for that, and very much more. Time is running out for climate action. We have one year less to go to an immovable deadline in 2030. The clear message from the EPA this week is that government inaction is the core of the problem and the potential bill for the public, which is already enormous, is rising by the day.
Agriland
6 days ago
- Business
- Agriland
EPA: Agriculture ‘made some progress' in reducing GHG emissions
Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agriculture sector 'will range from a 1% increase to a 16% decrease over the period of 2018 to 2030″ according to a new report published today (Wednesday, May 28) by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). According to the EPA these projections are based on the level of adoption of measures contained in the Climate Action Plans, AgClimatise and the Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC). The decrease in GHG emissions would potentially come from a variety of measures including limits on nitrogen fertiliser usage, switching to different fertilisers and 'bovine feed additives'. Mary Frances Rochford, EPA programme manager, said: 'The agriculture sector has made some progress in reducing emissions through the successful rollout of actions on nitrogen fertilisers, low emission spreading technologies and national liming programmes. 'In parallel, in line with new research, the EPA refined the information underpinning the agricultural figures which has led to a reduction in the overall agriculture emission estimates'. According to the EPA programme manager, it is now 'imperative that this new research and information is incorporated into updated carbon budgets and sectoral ceilings to ensure that they reflect latest science, data and knowledge on greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland and alignment with the national reduction target for the sector of 25%.' But in the meantime, a direct comparison of the agricultural sector against its sectoral emission ceiling 'is no longer viable', the agency has detailed in the latest GHG Emissions Projects 2024-2055 report. EPA However while the EPA has underlined the 'progress' the agriculture sector has made in relation to reducing GHG emissions, it has also warned that emissions from the Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector are projected to increase by up to 95%. The agency has detailed that GHG emissions from the LULUCF sector are projected to increase 'between 39% to 95% over the period of 2018 to 2030' chiefly because forestry is reaching its 'harvesting age and changes from a carbon sink to a carbon source'. 'Planned policies and measures for the sector, such as increased afforestation, water table management on agricultural organic soils and peatland rehabilitation are projected to reduce the extent of the emissions increase,' the EPA outlined. It has indicated that, even with current planned measures, it 'is unlikely' that Ireland will meet this sector's European commitments. Overall, according to the EPA, Ireland is projected to achieve a reduction of up to 23% in total GHG emissions by 2030, compared to a national target of 51%. Laura Burke, director general of the EPA said: 'The EPA's projections show that full delivery of all climate action plans and policies could deliver a 23% reduction in GHG emissions. 'Although emissions trends are going in the right direction, the gaps to our European and national emission reduction targets are now projected to be larger than last year. 'This highlights the economy-wide effort needed to decarbonise our society and the focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation.' The EPA's latest report also details that the first carbon budget and second carbon budget are projected to 'be exceeded' with almost all sectors on a trajectory to exceed their national sectoral emissions ceilings for 2030.
RTÉ News
6 days ago
- Politics
- RTÉ News
Ireland going backwards on emissions target
Laura Burke, Director General of the EPA, discusses their latest Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections report.
Irish Independent
6 days ago
- Business
- Irish Independent
Ireland falling further behind in bid to meet climate targets, revised emissions forecast shows
A new assessment published today revises the best-case scenario down, showing that instead of reducing emissions by 51pc by 2030 as legally required, a drop of just 23pc is the most that can be hoped for. That is less than half the reduction needed and significantly less than the already insufficient 29pc cut that was forecast last year and in 2023. The blow comes after government departments handed over the latest data on the progress they have made in their areas of responsibility. It shows they have fallen further behind target in taking fossil fuels out of transport, industry, electricity generation, homes and other buildings and in reducing methane emissions from agriculture. Two government-appointed expert bodies, the Fiscal Advisory Council and Climate Change Advisory Council, warned recently that failure to meet targets could cost Ireland €26bn in EU fines and compliance payments after 2030. The update is from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which is responsible for compiling Ireland's annual greenhouse gas inventory and calculating projections for the years ahead. Laura Burke, the EPA's director general, said the lack of progress was 'concerning'. 'Full delivery of all climate action plans and policies could deliver a 23pc reduction in greenhouse gas emissions,' she said. 'The gaps to our European and national emission reduction targets are now projected to be larger than last year. The focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation.' Momentum is building for Ireland's low-carbon society, but we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition Key areas where efforts are lagging include the development of renewable energy. Latest estimates show there will be 25pc less energy available from wind farms and solar parks than hoped for – 16.1 gigawatts instead of 22GW. In transport, a third fewer electric vehicles are now forecast to be on the road by 2030 – 640,750 instead of 945,000. ADVERTISEMENT Plans to replace some fossil gas with biomethane are also 25pc behind schedule and expected to deliver 4.3 terawatts instead of 5.7TWh. District heating schemes to replace oil and gas heat sources with renewables have barely begun and are now expected to deliver just 8pc of the heat forecast – 0.2TWh instead of 2.7TWh. The EPA warned that for even the revised-down figures to be achieved, it would take 'full implementation of a wide range of policies and plans across all sectors and for these to deliver the anticipated carbon savings'. Wind industry representatives are warning that the targets for their sector look doubtful because of hold-ups in planning and support infrastructure for new turbines. The revised figure for electric vehicles also appears optimistic because there are currently just 148,000 on the road and only 82,500 are fully electric while the rest are hybrid. Uncertainty surrounds how agriculture will perform, and it is feared emissions could even rise slightly in this sector by 2030. The muted forecasts come despite some reductions in national greenhouse gas emissions, which fell by 6.8pc in 2023, with a similar drop expected to be confirmed for 2024 when figures are finalised in the coming months. Ms Burke said the trends were 'going in the right direction' but nowhere near fast enough. 'Momentum is building for Ireland's low-carbon society, but we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition,' she said. Each sector of the economy and society has its own emission reduction target for 2030, and the EPA assessment shows revised cuts they are now expected to achieve. Agriculture has a 25pc target, but it is expected to be cut by 16pc at best and it could actually increase emissions by 1pc. Transport emissions are required to fall by 50pc, but the best-case scenario is 21pc if all feasibly deliverable promised plans and policies are implemented. If not, the reduction could be as small as 9pc. Electricity generation has a target cut of 75pc, but a 68pc cut is expected at best and possibly just 59pc. Industry is headed for a 12pc emissions cut, well below the sector's 35pc target. Residential buildings are expected to achieve a 22pc cut, but the target is 40pc. Agriculture has a 25pc target, but it is expected to be cut by 16pc at best and it could actually increase emissions by 1pc. The only sector where emissions are certain to increase is what is termed 'land use, land use change and forestry' (LULUCF) where the rise is expected to be between 39pc and 95pc. That is due to ageing forests and intensive use of land that stops plants soaking up carbon and releases it instead. Another reason the EPA has had to scale back its projections is that the original 51pc reduction target included some 'unallocated cuts' that it was hoped could be made through technologies not identified at the time. The EPA said ways to make those cuts had still not been specified. Environment Minister Darragh O'Brien defended the Government's record and said it was 'fully aware of the scale of the climate challenge'. He added: 'EPA projections are not absolute forecasts.'
RTÉ News
6 days ago
- Business
- RTÉ News
Gap to Ireland's 51% emissions target widening
Ireland has gone backwards in its attempts to achieve its greenhouse gas emissions targets, according to an updated analysis by the Environment Protection Agency (EPA). The latest greenhouse gas emissions projections from the EPA said emissions could fall by up to 23% by 2030 if every climate policy and measures currently planned by the Government is fully implemented on time. This is down from a 29% reduction predicted last year, and means the gap between what is currently achievable and Ireland's legally binding emissions-reduction target of 51% is widening. The EPA said the deterioration is due to significantly slower progress on many fronts, including onshore wind, offshore wind, electric vehicles, district heating, and the use of biomethane. EPA Director General, Laura Burke, said these trends, and the lack of progress, is concerning and the focus must now shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation. This new analysis from the EPA follows updated information it received about climate progress from Government cepartments and agencies. The report also shows that Ireland will exceed its 295 million tonne carbon budget allocation for 2021 to 2025 by 12 million tonnes. It is also on course to exceed its carbon budget for the following five years by 114 million tonnes. This represents a very significant financial concern because carbon credits costing billions of euros would need to be purchased to compensate for overruns. The fact that Ireland is not on track to meet its 51% emissions reduction target by 2030 is not a surprise. It is in line with projections in recent years. What is a major surprise, however, is confirmation from the EPA that Ireland's climate progress has slipped backwards, and that the gap to the 51% target is widening. The EPA is projecting that the agreed emissions ceilings for 2030 will be exceeded in nearly sectors, including buildings, electricity, industry and transport. It said emissions from agriculture could possibly fall by up to 16% by 2030. However, it is not viable to compare this with an emissions ceiling because the ceiling for the agriculture sector needs to be updated because of new science related to agriculture emissions. Apart from Ireland's national obligation to reduce greenhouse emissions by 51% compared to 2018 levels, it is also obliged to achieve a separate EU emissions reductions target of 42% compared to 2005 levels, by 2030. Today's report said that even with the best-case scenario, and using available flexibilities, Ireland simply cannot meet this EU target based on all the additional climate policy measures outlined and planned by the Government. Ms Burke said: "Although emissions trends are going in the right direction, the gaps to our European and national emission reduction targets are now projected to be larger than last year. "As we get closer to 2030 and receive more information on the impact of agreed policies and measures, it is concerning to see projected reductions and lack of progress in the delivery of actions to reduce emissions including in the electrification of our transport sector and the expansion of renewable electricity powering our homes and businesses and the implementation of carbon reduction measures in agriculture. "Momentum is building for Ireland's low-carbon society, but we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition." Key areas where the EPA has downgraded its climate action projections due to slower progress over the past year include renewable energy, transportation and heating. It said that following updated information from Government bodies, it is now assuming a maximum of 7.1 gigawatts of onshore wind energy capacity will be installed by 2030, down from 9 gigawatts targeted and presumed likely just 12 months ago. Similarly, the amount of installed offshore wind energy capacity the EPA considers to be realistic by 2030 is just 2.7 gigawatts, down from 5 gigawatts included in its projections last year. Estimates for installed solar power, biomethane, and district heating likely by 2030 have also been significantly reduced. There has been a very significant reduction, too, in the total number of electric vehicles the EPA now considers likely to be on Irish roads by 2030. Last year, its projections assumed the Government's official target of 945,000 electric vehicles was achievable. This year, following updates and consultation with Government departments, it said 640,000 electric vehicles would be the limit of what could possibly be achieved by 2030. Achieving this, however, will still require a massive acceleration in the uptake of electric vehicles. There are currently 148,000 electric vehicles on Irish roads. This is made up of just over 82,500 fully electric, and 66,500 plug-in-hybrid-electric, vehicles. To achieve the target included in these latest EPA emissions projections would require half a million additional electric vehicles over the next five years. The EPA projections excluded 5.25 million tonnes of "unallocated" greenhouse gas emissions "savings" promised in the Government's Climate Action Plan. This is because there is no indication whatsoever in the Plan about how those savings can be achieved. Today's report also said that net greenhouse gas emissions from land use and forestry in Ireland could double by 2030. This is because much of Ireland's existing forestry is approaching harvesting age, and will be cut down, while the rate of afforestation is too low to replace them.
