Ireland falling further behind in bid to meet climate targets, revised emissions forecast shows

Irish Independent

28-05-2025

A new assessment published today revises the best-case scenario down, showing that instead of reducing emissions by 51pc by 2030 as legally required, a drop of just 23pc is the most that can be hoped for.
That is less than half the reduction needed and significantly less than the already insufficient 29pc cut that was forecast last year and in 2023.
The blow comes after government departments handed over the latest data on the progress they have made in their areas of responsibility.
It shows they have fallen further behind target in taking fossil fuels out of transport, industry, electricity generation, homes and other buildings and in reducing methane emissions from agriculture.
Two government-appointed expert bodies, the Fiscal Advisory Council and Climate Change Advisory Council, warned recently that failure to meet targets could cost Ireland €26bn in EU fines and compliance payments after 2030.
The update is from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which is responsible for compiling Ireland's annual greenhouse gas inventory and calculating projections for the years ahead.
Laura Burke, the EPA's director general, said the lack of progress was 'concerning'.
'Full delivery of all climate action plans and policies could deliver a 23pc reduction in greenhouse gas emissions,' she said.
'The gaps to our European and national emission reduction targets are now projected to be larger than last year. The focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation.'
Momentum is building for Ireland's low-carbon society, but we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition
Key areas where efforts are lagging include the development of renewable energy. Latest estimates show there will be 25pc less energy available from wind farms and solar parks than hoped for – 16.1 gigawatts instead of 22GW. In transport, a third fewer electric vehicles are now forecast to be on the road by 2030 – 640,750 instead of 945,000.
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Plans to replace some fossil gas with biomethane are also 25pc behind schedule and expected to deliver 4.3 terawatts instead of 5.7TWh.
District heating schemes to replace oil and gas heat sources with renewables have barely begun and are now expected to deliver just 8pc of the heat forecast – 0.2TWh instead of 2.7TWh.
The EPA warned that for even the revised-down figures to be achieved, it would take 'full implementation of a wide range of policies and plans across all sectors and for these to deliver the anticipated carbon savings'.
Wind industry representatives are warning that the targets for their sector look doubtful because of hold-ups in planning and support infrastructure for new turbines.
The revised figure for electric vehicles also appears optimistic because there are currently just 148,000 on the road and only 82,500 are fully electric while the rest are hybrid.
Uncertainty surrounds how agriculture will perform, and it is feared emissions could even rise slightly in this sector by 2030.
The muted forecasts come despite some reductions in national greenhouse gas emissions, which fell by 6.8pc in 2023, with a similar drop expected to be confirmed for 2024 when figures are finalised in the coming months.
Ms Burke said the trends were 'going in the right direction' but nowhere near fast enough.
'Momentum is building for Ireland's low-carbon society, but we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition,' she said.
Each sector of the economy and society has its own emission reduction target for 2030, and the EPA assessment shows revised cuts they are now expected to achieve.
Agriculture has a 25pc target, but it is expected to be cut by 16pc at best and it could actually increase emissions by 1pc.
Transport emissions are required to fall by 50pc, but the best-case scenario is 21pc if all feasibly deliverable promised plans and policies are implemented.
If not, the reduction could be as small as 9pc. Electricity generation has a target cut of 75pc, but a 68pc cut is expected at best and possibly just 59pc.
Industry is headed for a 12pc emissions cut, well below the sector's 35pc target.
Residential buildings are expected to achieve a 22pc cut, but the target is 40pc.
Agriculture has a 25pc target, but it is expected to be cut by 16pc at best and it could actually increase emissions by 1pc.
The only sector where emissions are certain to increase is what is termed 'land use, land use change and forestry' (LULUCF) where the rise is expected to be between 39pc and 95pc.
That is due to ageing forests and intensive use of land that stops plants soaking up carbon and releases it instead.
Another reason the EPA has had to scale back its projections is that the original 51pc reduction target included some 'unallocated cuts' that it was hoped could be made through technologies not identified at the time.
The EPA said ways to make those cuts had still not been specified.
Environment Minister Darragh O'Brien defended the Government's record and said it was 'fully aware of the scale of the climate challenge'. He added: 'EPA projections are not absolute forecasts.'