Asia rushes exports to US as Trump's tariff deadline looms
The US trade deficit with Asia is widening as American importers stock up ahead of President
Donald Trump 's 'reciprocal' tariffs deadline.
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Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand all reported record exports to the
United States in May, according to data released in the past few weeks.
South Korean shipments were near a record last month and look to have grown again in early June, data released on Monday showed.
Those highs flip the normal historical pattern, where trade is stronger in the latter part of the year as Asian suppliers ship to the US ahead of Christmas holidays. The threat of new US tariffs starting in early July is forcing companies to get goods onto vessels and to the US as quickly as possible.
A container is loaded onto a cargo ship docked at Hai Phong port, Vietnam, in April after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries. Photo: Reuters
Shipments from
Vietnam and
Thailand to the US both jumped 35 per cent in May from a year earlier, while Taiwanese exports soared almost 90 per cent. Those historic gains are likely to start showing up in the US data this week, when May data is released, and could complicate negotiations between Trump and economies across the region on the level of tariff the US will set.
The US trade deficit has blown out this year as companies try to deal with the sudden changes to Washington's tariff and trade policy. While a sharp rise in pharmaceutical imports from Europe has contributed to the shortfall, Asian nations are the largest single contributor to the gap.
The forecast is for the US trade deficit to have been US$91 billion in May, enough to take it to almost US$643 billion so far in 2025 – well beyond the previous record for this stage of the year set during the pandemic.
If Trump imposes historically high duties on countries across Asia in early July as he is threatening to do, that surge in exports could quickly reverse, undermining economic growth across the region.
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The Strait of Hormuz has long stood as a symbol of global energy vulnerability. Stretching barely 39 kilometers at its narrowest point between Iran and Oman, it funnels nearly 20% of the world's oil supply and over one-third of liquefied natural gas. Any threat of its closure—whether rhetorical or real—inevitably triggers alarms across energy markets. Yet beneath the headlines and hyperbole lies a strategic paradox: closing the Strait of Hormuz would not deal a decisive economic blow to the United States. In fact, the economic and geopolitical recalibration underway since the US shale revolution suggests that Washington is less exposed than its adversaries and even some of its allies. Since the early 2010s, the United States has pursued a pathway toward energy self-reliance. The shale boom transformed the US from a net importer into one of the world's top oil producers. 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Moreover, Iran's calibrated retaliation, including its pre-notified missile strike on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, shows that Tehran seeks to balance deterrence with diplomatic signaling. This ambiguity is a calculated move not just toward Washington, but also toward Beijing and wider Asia. Iran does not want to be isolated, even while responding to aggression. In sum, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not the economic Achilles' heel of the United States that it once was. Thanks to energy independence, strategic reserves, diversified economic sectors and global alliances, Washington can absorb the shock. For others—especially in Asia—the costs are higher and the tools for mitigation fewer. Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is professor of ASEAN studies, International Islamic University Malaysia . Luthfy Hamzah is senior research fellow, Strategic Pan Indo Pacific Arena, Kuala Lumpur
