All eyes on Bass as the final seat in Tasmania's new parliament
Counting will be finalised in the northern Tasmanian electorate of Bass on Saturday morning, with the race for its seventh seat coming down to Labor and independent George Razay.
If a Labor candidate — either former federal MP Geoff Lyons or unionist Jess Greene — wins the party's third seat, Labor will have gained a seat despite a 3.1 per cent drop in its state-wide primary vote.
Counting will resume at 8am, with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission hopeful a result will be declared by midday.
The Liberal Party had hoped to win a 15th seat, but those aspirations were dashed on Friday afternoon when Liberal MP Simon Wood was excluded from the count in Bass.
It leaves the party anchored on 14 seats, the same as before the election, four MPs short of forming a minority government.
ABC chief elections analyst Casey Briggs said the contest in Bass had been "one of the most complicated and hard to predict in a long time".
"The seat is most likely to end up a race between Labor's Geoff Lyons and independent George Razay," he said.
The result in Bass delivered another blow to a party already reeling after independent Braddon MP Craig Garland ruled out supporting the Liberals.
Mr Garland said a lack of transparency over the Marinus Link deal had highlighted that Jemery Rockliff had not sufficiently changed his approach following June's successful no-confidence motion.
Mr Garland also said he would support a no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff if it was moved by Labor.
If Labor won 11 seats, it would only need the support of the Greens and one more crossbencher to pass.
That would pave the way for Mr Winter to become premier through a motion of confidence in a minority government led by him.
With the Liberals unwilling to work with the Greens, a Labor victory in Bass would mean Mr Rockliff would require the support of all four remaining crossbenchers — independents Kristie Johnston, David O'Byrne and Peter George and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP Carlo Di Falco — to remain in government, and avoid frequent speculation about another early election.
If Professor Razay or Mr Frydrych won, the Liberals would need the support of four of the five crossbenchers.
Ms Johnston said a briefing from Department of Treasury and Finance officials on Monday would be crucial in deciding which party she would endorse to govern in minority, but also didn't rule out supporting another no-confidence motion in the Liberals.
Mr O'Byrne, Mr George and Mr Di Falco have all said they need more time, and to know the final make-up of the parliament, before deciding on whether they will support the Liberals, or Labor.
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