From deterrence to danger: How Trump policy is fuelling global nuclear risks

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With a slew of decisions over many years, US President Donald Trump has raised the risk of a nuclear catastrophe to the highest level in years, undoing decades of nuclear arms reduction and non-proliferation efforts. read more
A Dongfeng-41 intercontinental strategic nuclear missiles group formation marches to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China in Beijing, on October 1, 2019 (Photo: Shen Shi/Imagine China/Reuters)
In the latest episode of dangerous nuclear sabre-rattling, Russia on Monday ended the moratorium on the deployment of nuclear-capable intermediate range missiles. The development came days after US President Donald Trump deployed nuclear submarines near Russian waters in response to threats of war from Dmitry Medvedev, a top ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
With such back and forth actions over the past years, often triggered by impulsive decision-making of Trump, decades of nuclear arms reduction and nuclear non-proliferation efforts are being undone and the world is now closest that it has been to a nuclear catastrophe in decades.
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It's not just that nuclear powers like the United States, Russia, and China, that are building more nuclear weapons and modernising delivery platforms. But more countries, such as those traditionally under the US security umbrella in Europe and East Asia, are considering developing own nuclear weapons as well.
While every country, whether Poland in Europe or South Korea in Asia, has its own rationale, the reason underpinning all such pursuits is Trump's disruption of the international world order that he began in his first term.
As a result, the likes of Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and even Japan, conversations around the development of a nuclear weapon are no longer taboo. His mistaken strategy of 'maximum pressure' had already put Iran on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon, necessitating the three-war earlier this year.
Trump & Putin flex nuclear muscles
Over the past two weeks, the war of words between the United States and Russia finally led to real-world consequences.
Since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin and his top allies like Medvedev had frequently invoked nuclear weapons. Medvedev frequently threatened Western capitals with nuclear strikes over their support of Ukraine.
Last month, Medvedev finally overstepped with his personal feud with Putin on X. After he threatened the United States with a direct war, Trump ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines near Russia. Days later, Russia responded by withdrawing from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
Trump had already withdrawn the United States from the INF in his first term in 2019.
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Under the treaty, which was originally signed in 1987 between the United States and Soviet Union, the two countries had agreed to ban and gradually dismantle intermediate- and short-range nuclear missiles between the range of 500 to 5,500 kilometres.
Trump kills arms control treaties
The INF is not the only arms control treaty that Trump has quit.
In 2020, Trump withdrew the United States from the Open Skies Treaty with Russia, which allowed the two countries to fly over each other's territories with sensor equipment to assure that none of them were preparing for conflict.
In his usual hubris, Trump had said that he would make new treaties with Russia for INF and Open Skies. Those deals, of course, never happened.
Instead, in 2023, Russia quit the New START treaty, which was the last remaining arms control agreement with the United States.
Under the New START treaty signed in 2010, which succeeded the Moscow Treaty of 2002, the two countries agreed to 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and up to 800 delivery platforms of various types.
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Trump nudges friends & foes alike towards nukes
With his actions, Trump has consistently nudged allies and adversaries alike towards nuclear weapons since his first term.
In the first term, Trump withdrew the United Stats from the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 and applied the 'maximum pressure' strategy. While his idea was to pressure Iran into negotiating a new deal that purportedly favoured the United States, it turned out to be a spectacular failure and pushed Iran towards the brink of developing a nuclear weapon.
Israel used Iran's near-nuclear weapons status as a pretext for war earlier this year that eventually dragged the United States into the conflict as well.
As Trump has virtually withdrawn the longstanding security commitment to Europe under Nato's collective defence principle out of his friendship with Putin and has threatened to abandon Asian allies like Japan and South Korea as well, there is anxiety in these countries that their adversaries —Russia in Europe and China and North Korea in Asia— could use the US abandonment as an encouragement for a more muscular policy or even pursue outright attacks and invasions.
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Such concerns have led to real conversations in countries like Poland, South Korea, and Japan about developing nuclear weapons as ultimate deterrence. In West Asia, Saudi Arabia is believed to have similar discussions as well.