From Jungle Diplomacy to Geopolitical Jazz: Why Asean and the EU Are the twin anchors of a fragmenting world

New Straits Times

05-05-2025

Regionalism: The New Operating System of Global Stability
If you really want to understand where the 21st century is heading, don't just look at Washington, Beijing, or Moscow. Look at the regions.
Because in a world that's becoming more fragmented, more contested, and frankly more chaotic, regionalism - that is, countries choosing to work together, not out of ideology or conquest, but out of sheer necessity - is emerging as the new operating system of global stability.
And if you're looking for the two most successful examples of this system in action, look no further than the European Union (EU) and Asean, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
They're both regional blocs. They both arose from turbulent pasts. But they couldn't be more different in how they were built, how they function, and how they endure.
Europe's Supranational Cathedral
The EU was built out of the ashes of two world wars. Europe's leaders, exhausted from centuries of bloodshed, finally asked: What if we tied our economies so tightly together that war would become unthinkable?
So they did just that. They started with coal and steel. Then came customs unions, a single market, the euro, and even a European Parliament. Brussels today is more than a capital - it's a nerve centre of supranational power.
The European Court of Justice can overrule national judges. The European Commission can slap billion-dollar fines on tech giants. This is regionalism with an operating manual - rules, laws, institutions, and yes, bureaucracy.
It's deliberate. It's rules-based. It's integration with teeth.
Asean From Jungle Diplomacy to the Asean Way
Now, hop on a plane to Jakarta, and it's a different world entirely. ASEAN didn't come out of boardrooms and treaties.
It came out of the jungle - literally. It was born in 1967 by five countries - Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore - all of them struggling with post-colonial nation-building, Cold War geopolitics and domestic insurgencies.
The goal wasn't unity. It was survival. From that rough start, Asean stitched together a quiet but remarkably durable diplomatic fabric.
Where the EU trades sovereignty for strength, Asean clings to sovereignty like a lifeline. There's no Asean Parliament. No regional court telling leaders what to do.
Instead, you get what's known as "the Asean Way" - consensus over confrontation, non-interference over integration, diplomacy over directives.
It's slow, sometimes maddeningly so, but it has its own rhythm. If the EU is a cathedral, Asean is a village marketplace - chaotic, diverse, but very much alive.
Economic Milestones: From AFTA to AEC
And yet, Asean has made real progress - particularly in economic cooperation.
It started with the Asean Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 1992, which reduced tariffs and encouraged intra-Asean trade. That matured into the Asean Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) in 2009, introducing more standardised trade rules and customs procedures.
Parallel to that came the Asean Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) in 1995, which chipped away at barriers in sectors like banking, education, and transport.
The crown jewel, for now, is the Asean Economic Community (AEC), launched in 2015 - an ambitious blueprint to turn Southeast Asia into a single market and production base.
It's not perfect. Enforcement is uneven, and gaps remain in the movement of skilled labor and investment rules. But it's more than symbolic - it's structure, it's ambition, and it signals forward momentum.
Internal Cracks and Public Perception
While both blocs show resilience, they also face internal fissures. In the EU, Brexit served as a sobering reminder that integration can be reversed. Populist movements across Europe, whether in Italy, France, or Hungary, are questioning the very legitimacy of Brussels.
Meanwhile, calls for "strategic autonomy" are growing louder, as Europe debates whether it can continue relying on NATO and US protection.
Asean's own cohesion is tested by internal disparities - from the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar to ongoing questions about Timor-Leste's accession.
Citizens across the region often perceive Asean as distant, elitist and technocratic. Public awareness of Asean remains low, despite the lofty economic and diplomatic goals.
The Great Power Squeeze: China, Russia, and U.S. Retrenchment
The post-Cold War honeymoon is over. The world is entering what some call a new Cold Peace - a turbulent, multipolar age where American isolationism, China's gravitational pull in Asia, and Russia's strategic assertiveness in Europe's backyard are reshaping the global order.
In Europe, the Ukraine war has jolted the EU into a more geopolitical stance. It's spending more on defense, talking about strategic autonomy, and confronting the uncomfortable truth that NATO alone might not be enough.
But cracks are showing - Hungary vetoes aid packages to Kyiv, Germany hesitates on military commitments, and populist parties continue to gain traction.
In Southeast Asia, the challenge is subtler but just as existential. China isn't invading - it's enveloping. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), trade dominance, and maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea, Beijing tests Asean's unity on a neardaily basis.
Some members lean toward China. Others hedge with the US, Japan, or India. But without a coherent front, Asean risks becoming a bystander in its own backyard.
Then there's America - the former guarantor of global order. Whether it's Trumpian nationalism or progressive disengagement, US foreign policy increasingly signals retrenchment.
Both Asean and the EU now quietly ask: Who do we turn to when Washington turns away?
Conclusion: Can the Cathedral and the Marketplace Survive the Storm?
This is the real stress test of regionalism in the 21st century.
Can Asean and the EU hold their ground in an age of great power rivalry? Can they evolve from mere talking shops or trade blocs into serious geopolitical actors? Or will they buckle under pressure - fragmenting into narrow nationalisms, caving to internal divisions, or simply becoming irrelevant as the world hardens into spheres of influence?
The answer isn't written yet. But here's what we do know: both blocs were built in times of uncertainty.
The EU turned war zones into wine routes. Asean turned jungle firefights into trade forums. Their success wasn't inevitable - it was earned.
And if they can keep adapting, keep trusting the process, and most of all, keep talking to each other instead of yelling at each other, they just might emerge from this messy multipolar moment stronger, not weaker.
Because in a world of weaponized trade, information warfare, and geopolitical poker, regions that can cooperate - however loosely - still offer the best hope for peace, prosperity, and yes, a little sanity.
* The writer is an adjunct lecturer at Universiti Teknologi Petronas, international relations analyst and a senior consultant with Global Asia Consulting. The views in this OpEd piece are entirely his own.