Should Ottawa target Marco Rossi this offseason? Senators mailbag, Part 1

New York Times

2 days ago

We are weeks away from the 2025 NHL Draft and the free-agent market opening. The rumour mill is churning as we wait for the Ottawa Senators to handle contract negotiations with their remaining pending free agents. Those deals will shape how active they'll be in free agency.
Let's take your questions on whether the Sens could offer a performance bonus-laden contract to Claude Giroux, whether Marco Rossi is a fit for the Senators and which prospects could challenge for an NHL roster spot next year.
Note: Questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
We've seen the need for truly top-end talent AND depth in these playoffs. With that in mind, do you think a perennial playoff team, but a first-round or second-round exit, is the Sens' ceiling? Or do they have what it takes to make a deep run as currently constructed (including prospects in the system)? — Mike M.
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I think the Senators are good enough to make the playoffs and could win a round depending on their opponent. They have a No. 1 goalie, a No. 1 defenceman and a No. 1 centre. They have an impact first-liner in Brady Tkachuk, who has proven he can play in the playoffs. Their supporting cast is decent. They have a game plan that involves committing to playing defence. There's work to be done, but the Sens have a good foundation.
The Senators are counting on that internal growth to take that next step. But what about filling holes in the roster, such as a need for scoring and potentially another defenceman to offset Nick Jensen's recovery from a nagging hip injury? That question will only be resolved once we know what Ottawa is doing with its remaining free agents before July 1.
Finally, what about the other teams in the Atlantic? The Florida Panthers are two wins away from a Cup. Barring serious regression and/or injuries, the Tampa Bay Lightning still look like a playoff team. The Toronto Maple Leafs should be, too. The Montreal Canadiens became a playoff team last year and the Detroit Red Wings continue to knock on the door as well. And maybe the Buffalo Sabres will be one day, too. I think the Senators need to show that they're more impressive than other teams in the Atlantic. It's possible. But they need to prove it wasn't a fluke.
Of course, projections for any team go out the window because of the magic of the playoffs. All it takes is one run, and how you play after that run, for your perception to change.
I think Ottawa's good enough to be a playoff team right now. But expectations need to be higher than that.
Would love a one-year assessment of the (Carter) Yakemchuk pick given it's this window's last top 10 pick (hopefully) and chance to get a star, his progression being hard to judge by box score stats alone, and the glut of other D prospects picked in that range that tempt 'what if' thinking. — Alexei K.
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It's a bit too early to tell with Yakemchuk, I think. He experienced some injury trouble during the second half of his WHL season and wasn't as much of a factor as he should have been during the playoffs. The one game I watched in full last December was his last game before the Christmas holidays. The offensive instincts were there, but he needed to work on gap control, having an active stick and positioning at the time.
But until we see him up close at the pro level, I'm going to consider any real assessment of Yakemchuk to be premature. I think the Senators still got a high-end prospect with size and offensive ability, but I'm not comfortable saying the Sens got a better prospect than guys like Zeev Buium, Zayne Parekh and the like.
Yakemchuk should be at the Ottawa development camp next month after the draft, and he'll likely head back to Calgary after that to get himself in shape for a training camp battle. The Sens continue to monitor his progress with help from development coach Wade Redden. My impression is that the Senators will give Yakemchuk every opportunity to make the team, as questions surround Jensen's health. My colleague Scott Wheeler thinks Yakemchuk could play in the NHL this fall, too.
Are there any players from Belleville that you can see pushing for an NHL roster spot next year? — Keith C.
Leevi Merilainen could have the best odds of that, but it doesn't appear to be a slam dunk as of now. It has everything to do with whether Anton Forsberg remains in the organization. Up to now, I haven't heard any confirmation that his time in Ottawa is done. We'll see.
Something else to consider: Ottawa's goaltending depth across the organization looks pretty thin if it lets Forsberg go. We know Linus Ullmark is the No. 1 guy. But in a world where Merilainen is No. 2, that leaves Mads Sogaard as their No. 3. Even if Forsberg goes, I'm inclined to think the Senators will vie for a veteran goalie in free agency.
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Stephen Halliday showed some promise at the AHL level with 19 goals and 51 points in 71 games. Depending on what the Sens do with their pending free agents, maybe he gives himself a chance to play on the fourth line with a good showing at training camp.
In addition to Yakemchuk battling for a roster spot, I'd look at Donovan Sebrango as a possibility for the seventh defenceman. He played two games last year. It only makes sense that he gets a good look in the fall.
It seems like this is the perfect opportunity to pay Claude Giroux via performance bonus, which is allowed on contracts for players aged 35 and above. I'm thinking he could count for a league-minimum cap hit this year and give him $4-5 million in easily achievable performance bonuses, which, from my understanding, would count next year. But with the cap going up, and Nick Jensen and David Perron off the books, they might be OK with it? Can you do a deep dive on this? I don't see this strategy used by teams very often. — Matthieu K.
On this week's Ask CJ on the Chris Johnston Show, Johnston tackled a similar question about Brad Marchand. I'd recommend checking that out if you want an in-depth explanation from him.
Anyway, yes, the Senators could tender a one-year contract with those performance bonuses that can carry into the next season. For those wanting an update on Giroux, senior vice president Dave Poulin said negotiations are ongoing on Tuesday at a season-ticket-holder event.
Joe Pavelski is a notable example of this strategy. He signed a one-year deal in 2023-24 with a $3.5 million cap hit and $2 million in performance bonuses. Combined with bonuses for Thomas Harley, that went up to about $2.6 million in performance overage bonuses carried over into 2024-25, according to PuckPedia. But some money was saved because the Stars were under the cap. That could work as some comparison for Giroux in this case.
Are the Senators willing to live with having four or five million on their books in bonuses on their cap? Depends on how much space they'll have. The Sens are currently projected to have $35 million in cap space in 2026, but what does that look like with a new Shane Pinto contract? What about other players they acquire through trade or free agency? Jensen and Perron look like cap casualties in 2026, but is it a guarantee that they both leave? Those are some of the factors the Sens would have to consider.
Of course, Giroux has to want that contract, too. What if he wants two years instead of one, for example? Anyway, it's a good idea worth considering. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sens tried to pitch that idea already.
I feel that the Sens have too many top-nine forwards but not enough top-six. With that in mind, do you think Marco Rossi could be an interesting option for the Sens? Would Ridly Greig and a second-round pick be enough to make a trade? Thanks! — Olivier N.
I get teams and fans being interested in Marco Rossi, a 60-point centre who can score from high-danger areas and looks to be on the outs in Minnesota before his prime. But here's why your trade proposal might not work.
My understanding is that the Wild would rather have players in exchange for Rossi instead of draft picks. The Wild probably won't need that 2026 second the Sens could offer (Ottawa doesn't have a second-rounder in this month's draft). Secondly, if the Wild want players, Greig doesn't fit the bill. His snarl and grit make him an excellent middle-of-the-lineup player, but it remains to be seen if he's a top-six player.
I think Shane Pinto would be a more intriguing piece for Minnesota than Grieg. His ceiling is higher, and he's a centre with some size who can play well defensively while providing offence in your middle six.
Secondly, is Rossi a veritable top-six player on this team, especially in the playoffs? It's worth asking. This spring in the playoffs, Rossi's ice time was limited between 9:27 and 12:10 in the six games he played against Vegas. He did have a multi-point outing in the series in Game 3, but played just 10:52 — and that was two-thirds of his points production in that series. Rossi had a 40.74 Corsi rating at five-on-five in the postseason and a 28.57 percent high-danger chances rate, according to Natural Stat Trick. That's not good enough, in my eyes.
I think Rossi is a talented player who could benefit in an environment where he doesn't have to worry about being out of a team's middle six. I'm just not completely sure he would be a top-six player for Ottawa.
(Top photo of Marco Rossi: Robert Edwards / Imagn Images)