Trump says Xi agreed to restart flow of crucial minerals, but analysts say China won't give up its ‘rare earth card'

CNN

9 hours ago

US President Donald Trump said Chinese leader Xi Jinping has agreed to restart the flow of crucial rare earth materials, after announcing a new round of US-China trade talks will be held in London on Monday.
Trump made the comments a day after holding his long-awaited phone call with Xi, during which the two leaders agreed to resume negotiations stalled over mutual accusations of violating the truce reached in Geneva last month.
For Washington, a major sticking point has been China's export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets, which are essential for everything from cars to fighter jets, and critical to American industries and defense.
In the weeks since the fragile detente, Washington has accused Beijing of slow-walking approvals for rare earth exports and reneging on its promise made in Geneva, with Trump expressing increasing urgency to speak to his Chinese counterpart to iron things out.
After a 90-minute call on Thursday, Trump said he and Xi had 'straightened out' some points related to rare earth magnets, describing it as 'very complex stuff.' But he did not specify what exactly had been agreed upon.
Asked Friday if Xi had agreed to restart the flow of rare earth minerals and magnets, Trump told reporters abroad Air Force One: 'Yes, he did.' He did not further elaborate on how fast that would happen, or the volume of the materials that would be released.
The Chinese readout of the call did not mention rare earths. Instead, it quoted Xi as saying that China had 'seriously and earnestly' complied with the trade truce agreement.
Asked about it at the Chinese foreign ministry's daily briefing on Friday, a spokesperson sidestepped the question, saying it was a matter for other agencies to address.
China, which controls 90% of the global processing of rare earths, imposed export restrictions on some minerals and magnets on April 4 at the height of the tariff war, after Trump slapped 'reciprocal' levies on Chinese goods. The new system does not ban exports outright, but requires government approval for each shipment.
Chinese scholars who advise the government suggested on Thursday that Beijing is not ready to give up the powerful leverage bestowed by its dominance on the rare earth supply chain – and may seek to use it to get Washington to ease its own export controls aimed at blocking China's access to advanced US semiconductors and technologies.
While American businesses are likely to see more shipments approved in the next couple of weeks, the export licensing regime is here to stay, said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
He noted that, according to official rules set by China's Commerce Ministry, applications for export licenses can take up to 45 working days to be approved.
'In principle, I can agree to export to you, but I can speed things up or slow them down. In reality, on a technical level, it also depends on the overall bilateral trade and economic atmosphere,' he said. 'If the bilateral relationship is good, then I'll go a bit faster; if not, I'll slow down. But you can't say I'm violating the agreement – I'm still following the standard procedures.'
Some Chinese suppliers of US companies have recently received six-month export licenses, the American Chamber of Commerce in China said Friday, but it noted that uncertainty remains amid a large backlog of license applications.
Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said the importance Trump attaches to rare earths shows how effective China's 'rare earth card' is.
'I hadn't realized just how important this rare earth card was before. Now the US side is clearly anxious and eager to resolve this issue,' he said in a video on social media on Thursday. 'But of course, we'll link this issue to others – the US is restricting China on chips and jet engines, then China certainly has every reason to make use of this card.'
'As for whether China will change its rare earth export control policy, that probably still needs to be negotiated in more detail' Jin added.
Some Chinese scholars have expressed hope that US technology restrictions on China may now be up for negotiation, after Trump announced that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick – whose department overseas US export controls – will join Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in the next round of trade talks.
'The issue of US export controls may no longer be an area that is completely non-negotiable in the future,' Cui Fan, an economics professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing and advisor to the Chinese Commerce Ministry, wrote in a social media post.
Beijing has insisted that its export controls are in line with international practices, non-discriminatory and not targeted at any specific country.
Hours before the two leaders jumped on the phone on Thursday, a spokesperson for China's commerce ministry reiterated that stance at a regular news conference, citing the 'clear dual-use attributes' of rare earth materials. Dual-use items refer to those with both civilian and military applications.
'The Chinese government reviews export license applications for dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations, and for applications that meet the requirements, China will grant approval to promote and facilitate compliant trade,' spokesperson He Yongqian said.
The strict licensing system has significantly disrupted the global supplies of these materials and triggered production turmoil across industries in America and Europe, raising alarms among officials and businesses alike.
A survey of member companies conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China late week found that, among those affected by rare earth export controls, 75% say their stock would run out within three months.
CNN's Kit Maher contributed to reporting.