Have England got lucky by finishing second?

BBC News

a day ago

Fans usually want their team to do as well as possible, but many England supporters were hoping results on Sunday night would prevent them from finishing top their group.When the Netherlands took the lead just before half-time in their match with France to put the Lionesses top of Group D, some England fans had an anxious half hour before the French overturned the deficit with a storming second-half display.A 5-2 France victory saw them finish three points clear of England in the table, but have the Lionesses got lucky and ended up with the easier draw?
Avoiding Germany & Spain 'definitely better'
The Lionesses face Sweden instead of old rivals Germany in the quarter-finals on Thursday (20:00 BST) and will play either Norway or Italy in the last four should they progress.They are also, perhaps crucially, in the opposite side of the draw to 2023 World Cup winners Spain, so are unable to meet the favourites until the final.While Sweden have performed well in past tournaments finishing in third at the World Cup in 2019 and 2023, they have not lifted a major trophy since winning the inaugural 1984 Euros.They were in worse form than eight-time European champions Germany heading into these Euros, having drawn two games against Wales in the Uefa Nations League. Germany, meanwhile won their last five Nations League games and scored at least four goals in each match.Opta's pre-tournament predictions gave Sweden a 6% chance of winning Euro 2025, compared to the 14% for Germany.Should England beat the Swedes on Thursday, they will then play a side ranked outside the top 10 in the world for a spot in the final.Italy are currently ranked 13th, while Norway are 16th.
Had the Netherlands beaten France, then England would have had to play world number three side Germany in the last eight and Spain, ranked second, in the semis."It is most definitely better, the team finishing second," former England forward Toni Duggan said on BBC Radio 5 Live."Avoiding Spain and Germany, but Sweden also look strong, so it is going to be an interesting game."France manager Laurent Bonadei agreed, saying they had "absolutely" been handed the difficult section of the draw.He added: "All of our opponents will want to knock us out, we remain as a challenger with much ambition."To be favourites you must win a trophy. We will play against Germany who won eight times…. because Germany are favourites."Spain defeated England in the World Cup final in 2023 and look strong in their pursuit of a first Euros title.The Lionesses beat Germany to win the Euros in 2022, but they have lost the six other games they have played against Germany at the tournament.
'I'm a bit terrified' - Sweden will be difficult test
It is in the semi-finals where England's draw is more favourable as their last-eight opponent will prove difficult.Sweden thrashed Germany 4-1 in the group stage and won all three games, conceding just once, to top Group C.Former England international Fran Kirby told BBC Radio 5 Live: "Sweden have such an experienced squad now. We played them in the semi-final in Euro 2022 and they are a team that have started the tournament very brightly. That will be something England need to look into."When the groups were drawn, everyone was talking about Germany but Sweden have just blown it all away in the group stage, so I think it's going to be a really interesting game."Not only do England have a tricky test ahead of them, but finishing as runners-up also means they have less time to recover, playing on Thursday instead of Saturday.
England have faced Sweden three times in the past three years, with one of those fixtures being incredibly memorable for their fans.They won 4-0 in the semi-finals of Euro 2022, the night where Alessia Russo scored her memorable backheeled effort.England's record goalscorer, Ellen White, played in that fixture and said she is "a bit terrified" about the Lionesses having to face Sweden in the quarter-finals."Whoever we were going to face was going to be a tough opposition," she told BBC Radio 5 Live. "We've faced Sweden a number of times, everyone will remember that semi-final from 2022 where we beat them 4-0 and we've drawn with them recently as well."Sweden look very good, they beat Germany convincingly in their last game. I'm a bit terrified, I feel like there's going to be a lot of goals, hopefully for England."The two teams are also the only European nations to reach the semi-final stage in each of the past three major tournaments.The Scandinavian side have only twice, in 2009 and 2017, failed to make it to the last four in their previous 11 Euros.Since their meeting at the last Euros, the sides have played out 1-1 and 0-0 draws in the Nations League.Before that, England lost 2-1 to Sweden in the bronze medal match at the 2019 World Cup.Sarina Wiegman's side have won two, drawn two and lost five of the games they have played against Sweden in major competitions. Against Germany, they have won two, drawn one and lost five.