Military might: The West's arms race will have consequences

India Today

4 hours ago

War is back. Rich countries are spending more on weapons. The US-led NATO plans to raise defence budgets for the next decade. The US, the 27 European Union nations, and the UK account for over half of all military spending already. Poorer countries will struggle to keep up, and may even be forced to prioritise the military over other, more pressing domestic needs.advertisementThe implications of NATO's new five per cent of GDP benchmark for defence spending — more than double the current goal — go far beyond military balance. The push is aimed at getting Europe and Canada to invest more in their militaries rather than rely on the United States for protection. Though as of 2024, nine of NATO's 32 members still hadn't reached the two per cent pledge set a decade ago in 2014.Why it matters: This isn't just about an arms race. The reallocation of public resources toward defence comes with fiscal trade-offs that could hit healthcare, education, and infrastructure budgets, especially in the developing world.
In numbers: World military spending reached $2718 billion in 2024, up 37 per cent from 2015. The 9.4 per cent increase in 2024 was the biggest since 1988. Military spending now accounts for 2.5 per cent of the world's GDP, or approximately $334 per person.In 2024, the United States alone accounted for about 37 per cent of global military spendingChina followed with 12 per cent, while the EU 27 and the UK jointly accounted for 17 per centRussia, following the Ukraine invasion, climbed to six per cent, while India held around threeThe rest of the world's share declined from about 22 per cent in 1994 to 25 per cent in 2024, even as total military spending has risenadvertisementIn-depth: Global military spending surged in 2024, driven by a few countries. The US, the EU 27, and the UK accounted for 54 per cent of the total, the core of NATO, which plans to increase defence budgets in a recent agreement on June 25.NATO vowed to spend 3.5 per cent of its GDP on defence and 1.5 per cent on security by 2035, representing a real increase of $800 billion annually. NATO's new spending pledge reflects what it calls the "long-term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security."Israel spent nine per cent of its GDP on defence in 2023, the highest among advanced economies. Japan is also increasing its defence budget.The data reflects this momentum. Since 2014, the US and its allies have expanded their share of global military spending. In contrast, China's share has plateaued at just over 12 per cent, and India's growth has been steady but modest. Meanwhile, the rest of the world — comprising most of the Global South — has been squeezed despite growing security needs.The big picture: Armed conflicts and geopolitical tensions across the globe have become more rampant in recent years. For the second consecutive year, military expenditure increased in all five of the world's geographical regions, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions worldwide.advertisementThe decade-long growth in global spending can be partly attributed to spending increases in Europe, largely driven by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and in the Middle East, driven by Israel's war on Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and, more recently, Iran.Many countries have also committed to raising military spending, which will lead to further global increases in the coming years. The military boom may stimulate industrial activity in the short term, but it also risks long-term fiscal strain.What they said: "The most unified and productive in history,' said US President Donald Trump, praising NATO's decision to boost military spending."I don't think it will have any significant effect," Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said when asked whether Russia sees the NATO build-up as a threat.- EndsMust Watch