4 Nations Face-Off predictions: Picks for champion, USA vs. Canada matchup, MVP and more
By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, James Mirtle and The Athletic NHL Staff
The wait is (basically) over. On Wednesday, best-on-best international hockey returns after more than eight years in mothballs. And while the 4 Nations Face-Off isn't perfect — it lacks the cachet of the Olympics, and plenty of countries and elite players aren't in the mix — it's still a big deal.
Before the games began, The Athletic surveyed its NHL staff for predictions. Providing commentary on the results are senior writers Sean Gentille and James Mirtle, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger.
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Do NHL players care about the 4 Nations Face-Off? Here's what they said
Mirtle: Well, that's certainly overwhelming. A few of Sweden's top forwards have had tough seasons, so there's no doubt Canada is the favorite here, but it's pretty close on the blue line and I'd give the Swedes the edge in net. Probably more of a toss-up than this.
Gentille: Yeah. It'd be a whole lot easier to pick Sweden here if Elias Pettersson and Mika Zibanejad were in top form — and who knows, maybe some time with the national team is what they need. Still, this one is cut and dry.
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Granger: Sweden is going to need Linus Ullmark or Filip Gustavsson to significantly outplay Canada's goalie in order to win this one.
Goldman: The key to a Sweden upset is its best goal scorers taking advantage of Canada's goaltending. A few key Sweden forwards are slumping this year, but maybe there will be some fuel from the blue line to help lead an upset.
Goldman: Poor Finland — its blue line has been decimated with injury. So it's no surprise that everyone is leaning toward the powerhouse that is Team USA.
Mirtle: I know this event is taking some heat for not having the Czechs and more nations involved, but Finland's defense illustrates why an NHL-only tournament can't really handle that. Only five Czech defensemen have even played a game this season in the league! You wonder what Finland does if it has another injury back there …
Gentille: Hey, at least Finland replaced Rasmus Ristolainen with an actual NHL defenseman; Nikolas Matinpalo has played 18 games for Ottawa this season. It's all a bit of a shame because the Finns have really good down-the-middle depth and goalies who can steal games.
Granger: Finland was already fighting an uphill battle before the injuries to the blue line. Its only hope is that the roster syncs together as a team more quickly than the other countries with such a short runway into this tournament, which I think is actually possible.
Goldman: Finland-Sweden is one of the best rivalries around, so hopefully this can still be a good game despite how short-handed Finland is on the back end.
Mirtle: I'll be interested in what Finland does in goal. I assume Juuse Saros gets a lot of the runway, but statistically, Kevin Lankinen has been its best goalie this year. Can the Finns get a steal-a-game performance from one of them?
Granger: Finland always plays a tough, tight-checking game in these international tournaments, and in this rivalry game that should be even more magnified. I expect it to be a low-scoring contest with a late winner. This game should be a lot of fun.
Gentille: Finland's top three lines are centered by Aleksander Barkov, Sebastian Aho and Roope Hintz. That alone might make this interesting.
Mirtle: Oh really? I wonder if this tournament is going to be remembered as the event where the U.S. showed they've taken a big step. Winning this game would be a start.
Granger: It's going to be a pretty big letdown if the U.S. doesn't take the step you're referring to, James. It's hard to find a true weakness on this team. It has skill and strength up front, a great defensive group and the best goaltending in the tournament.
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Gentille: Let the 'Canada is the underdog, actually' narratives commence!
Goldman: The real question is whether this is going to be the only USA-Canada matchup of the tournament — the next one could be the one that really matters.
Mirtle: Pray for Esa Lindell, who might have to play 35 minutes in this one.
Granger: Throw a prayer in there for Saros while you're at it.
Gentille: Brayden Point is probably going to take regular shifts against AHL defensemen. Neat.
Goldman: Get ready for the "Barkov, Aho and Hintz are the most underrated centers" stories if Finland pulls this off.
Mirtle: I'm sensing a lot of belief in Team USA from our American staff.
Granger: Sweden is behind Canada and the U.S. in terms of overall talent on the roster, but the Swedes are strong in the right positions: up the middle and in goal. Their centers could make this a closer contest than we might expect.
Gentille: I thought about picking Sweden here, just so the number would look a little less lopsided. We're tempting fate.
Goldman: I really think Sweden is going to pull off one upset in this tournament, against USA or Canada. Canada feels a bit more likely, but considering the hype around the U.S. this one would be huge.
Goldman: I know, that's right. Team USA is the favorite for good reason. This team is absolutely stacked at every position, even without Quinn Hughes in the mix. USA and Canada's skaters may match up pretty closely, but there is a massive disparity in net. Betting that Canada is regretting not picking Logan Thompson right about now!
Mirtle: Or Mackenzie Blackwood. Or Cam Talbot. Darcy Kuemper is having a nice season …
Granger: Seeing Finland with more votes than Sweden here is very interesting, and not at all what I expected.
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Team USA opted for speed and skill over grit and it's made them 4 Nations favorites
Mirtle: A changing of the guard? I guess we'll see. The big question for the U.S. is going to be whether it can come together in a short event and pull this off. And, yes, does the goaltending disparity win the day? Sweden should be higher on this list, though. It has a real shot to win.
Granger: With how high the expectations have become for the U.S. team, I worry what failure in this tournament would do to Connor Hellebuyck's already shaky playoff reputation. Let's hope we don't get to that point.
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Gentille: It's easy to pick the U.S. to win. Going with Sweden or Finland as the runner-up, though, is reserved for only the most powerful of haters.
Goldman: Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid are going to see this and carry Canada to a win.
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At the 4 Nations Face-Off, one position rules. Why, and what can we expect?
Mirtle: That's a pretty good-looking one-two punch …
Granger: Considering how stacked Canada's forward lineup is, it's wild that a defenseman could finish third on this list and not feel out of place. But that's how ridiculously good Cale Makar is.
Gentille: I almost went with Sam Reinhart here, just to be different, and then he opened practice on a line with McDavid and Mitch Marner. Worth tracking.
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What I'm seeing from Team Canada: Latest on Sidney Crosby and lines from a 'super intense' first practice
Mirtle: Auston Matthews has been playing a lot better of late for Toronto, but he's not up to his 69-goal standard of last season. What version of him the U.S. gets is going to be important for them in the tournament — although this list shows how many other weapons the team has now.
Granger: I was one of the few to vote for Kyle Connor. He has one of the best releases in hockey, and he's playing on a team with a lot of pass-first playmaking forwards. He should get plenty of looks, and he knows how to finish them.
Gentille: Jesse has quite nearly pulled me into Camp Connor, but I still feel like Jack Eichel was built for tournaments like this.
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What I'm seeing from Team USA: Replacing Quinn Hughes, splitting up the Tkachuks, practice lines, more
Goldman: William Nylander makes a lot of sense here, but let's see Filip Forsberg cook on a super-skilled Team Sweden. The dark horse pick has to be Lucas Raymond, who is emerging into a total superstar.
Mirtle: Nylander has been on a huge heater, especially with how many breakaways he's been getting, so that'll be something for other teams to watch out for.
Granger: Pettersson has been in a bit of a funk, but I wonder if getting away from the team and into this international environment might be what he needs to snap out of it. I could see him scoring one early and finding his game quickly.
Gentille: Nylander is the best player on the roster. Thus, he's my guy.
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What I'm seeing from Team Sweden: 'Phenomenal' goaltending, do-it-all D and lines from first practice
Goldman: Mikko Rantanen is the favorite for good reason — he's an elite player who rises to the occasion in big moments. His injury is the one potential wrinkle in this because a player such as Barkov can definitely steal the spotlight if he isn't 100 percent.
Mirtle: Not enough love for Matinpalo in my opinion. Playing in this without having an NHL point — in either this season or your career — is a real feat.
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Granger: Patrik Laine is the type of player whose stick turns to red-hot magma and everything he shoots goes in for a week. Is that likely to happen this week? Probably not, but it's certainly possible.
Gentille: Mirtle and I, watching the tournament in matching Matinpalo jerseys.
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What I'm seeing from Team Finland: Mikko Rantanen good to go, following their own path
Mirtle: I think if the U.S. is going to win this thing, it is going to have to limit the damage from Canada's two-headed monster, possibly twice if the teams meet on two occasions.
Granger: Once again, I'm banging the drum for Connor as a dark horse here. That's only if the U.S. gets the better of Canada, though.
Gentille: Sometimes, the boring choice is the correct choice.
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Team Canada's 4 Nations nuclear option: Could they channel 1987, put MacKinnon, McDavid together?
Mirtle: The right choice. I know save percentages are down leaguewide, but in such a short tournament, there's a chance for a goalie to steal this thing with a few big games.
Granger: He should be the favorite for the Hart Trophy, and he's rightfully the favorite to win this MVP as well. He's the best player at the most impactful position. Hellebuyck didn't play for any international teams growing up and didn't go through the USA Hockey National Team Development Program like most elite American players. This is a cool opportunity for him to represent his country when he's at the top of his game.
(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; Ellen Schmidt, Kevin Sousa / NHLI, Jeff Vinnick / NHLI, G Fiume / Getty Images)
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