‘Could Spark World War III': NATO Member Slams EU's Anti-Russia Sanctions As ‘Dangerous'
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Time of India
11 minutes ago
- Time of India
Markets betting on economic strength, not trade deals: Ed Yardeni
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "But the stock market has concluded that maybe the US economy is resilient enough to withstand all the volatility and uncertainty that is coming out of Washington on tariffs . And maybe the same thing seems to apply to the to the global economy," says Ed Yardeni , Yardeni it very much looks as though the President Trump is aiming now at a 15% base tariff. For a while there it looked like he was satisfied with 10% and then would negotiate whether there would be any additional tariffs depending on the conditions that were open or close to American goods in various countries. But now it looks like he wants 15%.The reason for that is he needs it to help raise revenues to help to reduce the federal deficit. At the end of the day that tariff is going to wind up being a tax probably mostly at American businesses and American consumers and to a certain extent I presume that foreign exporters will be leaned on by their American customers to try to help to a certain extent. But all in all, he is getting kind of what he wants. It will probably be 15% base rate with the EU and then we will see whether the EU opens up. It is hard to imagine that they will because they have been relatively closed for quite some times because a lot of special interest groups that do not want to have easy competition for foreign the markets have priced in a fairly optimistic scenario. It is quite a radical change from what the thinking was in the markets back in March, April, and maybe even early May. But really ever since the president backed off or postponed his Liberation Day tariffs on April 2nd, he announced them on April 9th, he postponed them. And now we have got a hard deadline of August 1st. And we are getting some deals, but we certainly did not get 90 deals in 90 days, that that did not happen. And some of these deals that we have so far look more like frameworks than the stock market has concluded that maybe the US economy is resilient enough to withstand all the volatility and uncertainty that is coming out of Washington on tariffs. And maybe the same thing seems to apply to the to the global in all, the global economy has held up pretty well despite all the turmoil about tariffs. This does not look like Smoot-Hawley, the 1930s tariff that brought the global economy down and maybe that is because economies are stronger. They are more services oriented. Tariffs are usually put on goods, not on services. But when you put it all together, the stock markets around the world, but particularly in the United States, are discounting what I have been calling since the beginning of the decade the roaring 2020s. There is a lot of focus on technological innovation and how that is going to increase us face it, there is a lot of excitement about artificial intelligence everywhere around the world. Everybody wants to suddenly build these data centres. Some of that is going to turn out to be hype. Some of that may turn out to be leading to overcapacity. But for now, it is happy days are here I have been very focused on overweighting the US since 2010, and it has worked out really-really well. Not earlier this year, but now it looks as though maybe the US again looks like it is winning relative to other countries. Look, it is not that hard to underweight the United States and overweight the rest of the world because the United States accounts for 70% of the market capitalisation of stock markets around the if you feel uncomfortable with that and you want to only put 65% in and therefore overweight the rest of the world that is fine if you can find the opportunities and there are opportunities including India, of course, which has already done remarkably well. But all in all, we are looking at a situation where investors are getting a little bit excited here, maybe too excited, but I am looking for bull-bear ratios to get to the point where there is just too many bulls. We are not quite there yet, but we could get there very I think that sentiment certainly improved overnight in Japan. We saw those stocks doing very well. On the other hand, GM has been hurt by to the tune of a billion dollars by Trump's tariffs. And we have yet to really see these tariffs settle in. There is still uncertainty about exactly what they are going to be, but that uncertainty will be gone presumably within a couple of weeks, we will know exactly what the tariffs are. And the auto industry is still going to be challenged. I look at it as a long-term issue. The real long-term issue for autos is we are going to have autonomous are going to have cars that drive themselves and then the question is, what is the point of owning a car if you can get access to cars that will take you anywhere any time of the day, what is the point of having your own car parked in the parking lot of your work and or in the garage at night? On the other hand, if you want to make some money, you can buy a car and make autonomous taxi out of it. So, there is a lot of challenges here, but we may not need as many cars as we have out there if we can all just use an app to call a car.
Mint
11 minutes ago
- Mint
Von Der Leyen Tells Xi EU-China Ties Are at ‘Inflection Point'
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Chinese leader Xi Jinping that the bloc's ties with his country 'have reached an inflection point,' opening a summit shadowed by tensions spanning trade to the war in Ukraine. 'As our cooperation has deepened, so have the imbalances,' von der Leyen said on Thursday, according to her prepared remarks. 'Rebalancing our bilateral relation is essential. Because to be sustainable, the relations need to be mutually beneficial.' The first in-person EU-China summit since 2023 is exposing a divide between the bloc and Beijing just months after earlier signs of a possible detente. In his opening remarks, Xi said their ties are 'at a historical juncture,' urging stronger trust and communication amid global uncertainty, state broadcaster CCTV reported. The messages come as the two sides mark the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic ties. The meeting has been cut short from two days to one at Beijing's request, Bloomberg News has reported, with the venue changed from Brussels to the Chinese capital after Xi refused to travel to Europe for the talks. Von der Leyen and the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, met the Chinese leader following the EU's summit with Japan held in Tokyo Wednesday. While there are no plans to issue a joint communique, the EU intends to release a statement listing the main messages it delivered, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The two sides are also preparing a landmark declaration on climate cooperation. Top officials will sign the document in Beijing on Thursday, according to people familiar with the plans, likely committing both parties to further emissions cuts and to deliver their climate plans to the United Nations before the COP30 summit in Brazil later this year. The tensions on display this week contrast with hope at the height of the trade war unleashed by Donald Trump for China to repair ties with the EU. Back then, Beijing appeared to be positioning itself as a more reliable partner as Trump alienated the bloc. Now, deep disagreements are once again marring the relationship. The strains flared into view in April with Beijing's decision to impose export controls on rare earth magnets, which shook European car companies and other sectors. Brussels also takes issue with what it considers as Beijing's support for Moscow. The EU on Friday sanctioned two Chinese banks and five China-based companies as part of its latest measures against Russia. Trade ties are another source of frustration. The Asian nation's goods trade surplus reached almost $143 billion in the first half of this year, a record for any six-month period, according to data released last week. The EU inflamed trade tensions when it imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last year in a bid to ward off a flood of cheap imports. In response, China launched anti-dumping probes into European brandy, dairy and pork. 'I don't think that any of us are too optimistic in terms of any sort of grand agreement being reached — and I don't think that this is really what we should aspire to,' Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said on Bloomberg TV Thursday. The 50th anniversary of ties offers an opportunity to ask how to 'ensure that we have a relationship going forward that continues to deliver benefits from both sides,' he said. 'And what we are seeing right now is this increase in trade tension and this perception in particular in Europe, that the benefits of the relationship are no longer being distributed in an equitable manner.' With assistance from Iain Rogers, Jorge Valero, Fran Wang, David Ingles, Yvonne Man and John Ainger. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Hindustan Times
11 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Indian firm shipped explosives to Russia despite US warnings
* Indian firm shipped explosives to Russia despite US warnings HMX 'critical for Russia's war effort,' U.S. government says * Indian companies have been shipping materiel to Russia despite threat of US sanctions * One Russian recipient has ties to Moscow's military, Ukraine says By Gram Slattery, Tom Balmforth and Shivam Patel WASHINGTON/KYIV/NEW DELHI, - An Indian company shipped $1.4 million worth of an explosive compound with military uses to Russia in December, according to Indian customs data seen by Reuters, despite U.S. threats to impose sanctions on any entity supporting Russia's Ukraine war effort. One of the Russian companies listed as receiving the compound, known as HMX or octogen, is the explosives manufacturer Promsintez, which an official at Ukraine's SBU security service said has ties to the country's military. The official said that Ukraine launched a drone attack in April against a Promsintez-owned factory. According to the Pentagon's Defense Technical Information Center and related defense research programs, HMX is widely used in missile and torpedo warheads, rocket motors, exploding projectiles and plastic-bonded explosives for advanced military systems. The U.S. government has identified HMX as "critical for Russia's war effort" and has warned financial institutions against facilitating any sales of the substance to Moscow. The HMX sale to Russian firms has not been previously reported. Russian defense manufacturers have been working around the clock for the past several years to sustain President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, which intensified with Russia's full-scale invasion of its neighbor in 2022. India, which has recently forged closer ties with the United States in an effort to counterbalance China's growing influence, has not abandoned its longstanding military and economic ties with Moscow. India's trade with Russia - especially its purchases of Russian oil - has remained robust, even as Western nations have tried to cripple Russia's war economy with sanctions. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened earlier in July to hit nations with a 100% tariff if they continued purchasing Russian crude. The U.S. Treasury Department has the authority to sanction those who sell HMX and similar substances to Russia, according to three sanctions lawyers. HMX is known as a "high explosive," meaning it detonates rapidly and is designed for maximum destruction. Reuters has no indication that the HMX shipments violated Indian government policy. One Indian official with knowledge of the shipments said that the compound has some limited civilian applications, in addition to its better-known military uses. India's foreign ministry said in a statement: "India has been carrying out exports of dual-use items taking into account its international obligations on non-proliferation, and based on its robust legal and regulatory framework that includes a holistic assessment of relevant criteria on such exports." The U.S. State Department did not comment on the specific shipments identified by Reuters but said it had repeatedly communicated to India that companies doing military-related business are at risk of sanctions. "India is a strategic partner with whom we engage in full and frank dialogue, including on India's relationship with Russia," a spokesperson said. "We have repeatedly made clear to all our partners, including India, that any foreign company or financial institution that does business with Russia's military industrial base are at risk of U.S. sanctions." Russia's defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment. "While India has not typically been among the primary jurisdictions used for circumventing sanctions, we are aware that isolated cases can occur," Ukrainian presidential adviser Vladyslav Vlasiuk told Reuters. "We can confirm that the Russian company Promsintez has appeared on our radar in the past, including in connection with cooperation involving Indian counterparts," added Vlasiuk, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's top sanctions official. WASHINGTON WOOS NEW DELHI Reuters identified two HMX shipments sent in December by Indian firm Ideal Detonators Private Limited, both of which were unloaded in St. Petersburg, according to the Indian customs data. An Indian government official with direct knowledge of the shipments confirmed them. One shipment, worth $405,200, was purchased by a Russian company called High Technology Initiation Systems, the data show. The other shipment, worth more than $1 million was purchased by Promsintez. Both purchasers are based in Samara Oblast, near the border of Kazakhstan in southern Russia, according to the data. Ideal Detonators Private Limited, based in the Indian state of Telangana, did not respond to a request for comment. Promsintez and High Technology Initiation Systems also did not respond to requests for comment. While several Indian entities were sanctioned during the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden for supporting Russia's war effort, sanctions were applied sparingly due to geopolitical considerations, according to two U.S. officials who worked on sanctions under Biden. Under Trump, Russia-related sanctions work has slowed to a trickle, and it is not clear if the United States will take further action against Indian companies doing business with Russia's defense industry. Washington has long sought closer relations with India to pull the South Asian country away from China. Eric Prince, a partner at Washington-based law firm Akin, said the U.S. government often prefers to communicate its concerns privately to allies and only take punitive actions as a last resort. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
