When brilliance is not enough: What it takes for an outsider to become one of the political greats
Vaclav Havel, the poet and political prisoner who became the first democratically elected president of Czechoslovakia, in 1989, went on to steer his country – and later, the Czech Republic, after Czechoslovakia separated from Slovakia – through the painful transition from communism to capitalism. Over 13 years as president, he drove the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact – the defence treaty that tied it to the former Soviet Union – and his country's entrance into NATO and the European Union.
'With the collapse of communism was a real sense of moral uncertainty about, right, all the old values are gone, what are we being offered?' says University of Sydney emeritus professor Graeme Gill, an expert on Russian and Soviet politics, of the period when Havel was voted in, mere weeks after having been jailed for championing human rights.
'[So] there's something in [his] past that gave him increased capacity, when he was a leader, and it was the sort of moral authority he had, both as a former dissident because he'd been locked up by the communists at some stage, certainly been suppressed; his plays weren't allowed to be shown.' This enabled him to operate on the moral high ground, and accomplish great things. And be repeatedly re-elected by his people.
Then there's Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, whose only preparation before being elected in 2019 was starring in Servant of the People, a satirical television show about a history teacher who unexpectedly is elected as the president of Ukraine.
He has shocked many by his transition into a courageous statesman who has rallied his people to hold off the Russian army, against all odds, for three years.
'[But] I mean, he's in a crisis, which gives him a lot more power, and there's a lot less scrutiny that he would otherwise have had,' says Professor Rodney Smith, an expert in parliamentary democracies at the University of Sydney. 'And crises allow you to mobilise people around you who otherwise wouldn't be co-operative with you. It's more difficult to criticise the leader, if the crisis isn't of your making, and you seem to be doing the right things.'
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But experts point out that Havel and Zelensky are the rare exceptions. American President Donald Trump, is, for many, an illustration of what is more likely – the failures that can result, when a person comes to the job equipped only with renown in an entirely different arena.
'When we see someone who is clearly a good leader in some other field, you know, there's an assumption, 'Wow, if only we could get that person into politics, wouldn't it be great?' And that's not the case,' says Smith. 'Because they're a great thinker, or a great orator, or a great businessperson, or a great whatever. But, you know, even a great head of a public sector agency, if they don't have the full skill set [they will not be an effective political leader].'
Smith says there are five key skills in that set: being able to manage a party and rival factions, understand how the public service works, manoeuvre through the partyroom and parliament to get legislation passed, navigate the demands of lobbying and advocacy groups, and being able to bring the public along with you.
Think of Michael Ignatieff, the Booker Prize-shortlisted author and Harvard professor of human rights, who became leader of the Canadian opposition in 2008.
He was 'a complete disaster', says University of Sydney Emeritus Professor Rodney Tiffen, author of Disposable Leaders. Media and Leadership Coups from Menzies to Abbott. 'He was a very, very bright guy, but didn't really know how to operate in Ottawa.'
Ignatieff, who wrote an 8000-word policy manifesto before entering politics, in which he advocated for ways to improve the lives of Indigenous Canadians, and improve productivity through investments in higher education, didn't disagree.
'If a politician cannot succeed in convincing voters he is in it for them, he cannot win standing … without it, no message can get a hearing,' Ignatieff wrote in his memoir, Fire And Ashes: Success and Failure In Politics, after he'd resigned as leader of the Liberal Party, following the loss of his seat in the 2011 federal election, the Liberal Party's worst showing in its history. (The Liberals won only 34 seats in parliament, marking the first time since Confederation that the party failed to finish first or second.)
His rivals, building on the fact that Ignatieff spent 30 years in the United States before returning to Canada to run for office, attacked him in ads that read: 'He didn't come back for you.'
Even leaders who come to the top job with considerable political experience end up failing to become effective when they lack 'the full skill set', says Smith.
Think of former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, says Smith. He was an incredibly astute lawyer, merchant banker and venture capitalist who was turfed by his own party. 'You might be brilliant, but if the party doesn't like you, you're in trouble,' he says. Think of Malcolm Turnbull, says Smith. He was an incredibly astute lawyer, merchant banker and venture capitalist who was turfed by his own party. 'You might be brilliant, but if the party doesn't like you, you're in trouble,' he says. The same can be said of former prime minister Kevin Rudd, an accomplished diplomat, ex-political staffer and one-time head of Queensland's cabinet office; he lost the support of his party in his first term after being unable to manage relationships within it.
'And you've got to convince the public [of your vision], so, you know, that's [former Liberal Party leader] John Hewson's story,' says Smith. 'He put up a complete tax package. It made perfect sense to him as an economist with a PhD in economics. But it didn't make sense to a majority of voters.'
It's no wonder that the late Queen Elizabeth II once quipped about prime ministers: 'I don't know why anyone would want the job.'
So, does Mark Carney, if he wins on Monday – and the latest polls from The Economist give his Liberal Party an 86 per cent chance of winning the most seats in parliament – have a decent shot at becoming a Zelensky or a Havel?
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'I think this is one of those situations where it depends a lot on the team he has,' says Smith. 'I think he's got some of these skills already, but he's never had to keep a party together before, a political party, at parliamentary level. Never had to really deal directly with MPs who are worried about their constituents in their ridings, or their provinces. He seems a very smart guy, very personable, very confident. But, you know, it's unlikely to get easier for Canada, I would've thought, in the next little while, given the situation with the southern neighbour. I think there is a certain level of risk there.'
Perhaps he'll personify the theory of renowned German sociologist Max Weber – himself a failed politician – who believed that the only outsiders well suited to becoming politicians were lawyers or journalists, as both had been taught the ruthlessness and adaptability necessary to lead. Or maybe not.
Because Carney's first action as prime minister was to repeal the consumer carbon levy. This was the Liberal Party's signature climate policy, which Carney had fiercely defended, so much so, that Carney's rival Poilievre previously dubbed him 'Carbon Tax Carney'.
'This demonstrates a willingness to slaughter a sacred cow of the pro-climate progressive movement which the Liberal Party had been the proud leader of, until the moment he took it out the back and cut its head off; a determination to win power, regardless of any policy sacrifice,' says Herald and Age columnist Peter Hartcher.
Maybe the banker with a heart of gold has a ruthless side after all.
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The Advertiser
2 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Informal talks of EU security deal under way with Canberra
Australia will push ahead with informal talks for a new security agreement with Europe which could involve future defence industry cooperation and intelligence sharing, the EU's top diplomat has confirmed. Gabriele Visentin, the European Union's ambassador to Australia, said both sides have agreed to informal talks about the prospect of a security pact after the EU floated the idea on the sidelines of Pope Leo XIV's inauguration in May. Mr Visentin said a potential deal would mirror similar agreements between the EU and other countries such as Japan and South Korea, which involve military exercises and other cooperation in areas of mutual interest. "It's not a military alliance. It's a partnership for co-operation on defence issues, including industrial things," the envoy told the National Press Club on Wednesday. "So there is no scope for an understanding in terms of transfer of troops or mutual help and mutual assistance." Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared to initially downplay the idea of a security pact with the EU after noting Australia already had similar agreements in place with other European countries, including Germany. Mr Visentin indicated he was optimistic the Albanese government would come around after Defence Minister Richard Marles held a recent meeting with the bloc's High Representative in Singapore. European countries are preparing to spend billions of dollars to rebuild their armies in the wake of reduced support from the US and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Mr Visentin said a European security pact with Australia would be critical as Russia broadens its ambitions beyond Ukraine and China scales up its military posture in the Indo-Pacific. "I think that there are geopolitical tensions which are aiming at reversing what the international rules-based order is, regardless of the actors. And I think that we have to team up to defend that," he said. In a thinly veiled reference to US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, Mr Visentin also expressed concerns that rising "isolationism and protectionism" will see an increase in unfair trading practices. Mr Visentin confirmed ongoing disputes over negotiations for a free trade agreement between Australia and the EU were unresolved but encouraged both governments to "team up and defend tree trade." "Nothing has changed in terms of content. The differences are still there. And are still difficult to resolve and to address," he said. "What has changed, of course, is the willingness and the readiness to try to strike a deal. We have seen an incredible change in the geopolitics and in the world of trade." Australia will push ahead with informal talks for a new security agreement with Europe which could involve future defence industry cooperation and intelligence sharing, the EU's top diplomat has confirmed. Gabriele Visentin, the European Union's ambassador to Australia, said both sides have agreed to informal talks about the prospect of a security pact after the EU floated the idea on the sidelines of Pope Leo XIV's inauguration in May. Mr Visentin said a potential deal would mirror similar agreements between the EU and other countries such as Japan and South Korea, which involve military exercises and other cooperation in areas of mutual interest. "It's not a military alliance. It's a partnership for co-operation on defence issues, including industrial things," the envoy told the National Press Club on Wednesday. "So there is no scope for an understanding in terms of transfer of troops or mutual help and mutual assistance." Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared to initially downplay the idea of a security pact with the EU after noting Australia already had similar agreements in place with other European countries, including Germany. Mr Visentin indicated he was optimistic the Albanese government would come around after Defence Minister Richard Marles held a recent meeting with the bloc's High Representative in Singapore. European countries are preparing to spend billions of dollars to rebuild their armies in the wake of reduced support from the US and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Mr Visentin said a European security pact with Australia would be critical as Russia broadens its ambitions beyond Ukraine and China scales up its military posture in the Indo-Pacific. "I think that there are geopolitical tensions which are aiming at reversing what the international rules-based order is, regardless of the actors. And I think that we have to team up to defend that," he said. In a thinly veiled reference to US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, Mr Visentin also expressed concerns that rising "isolationism and protectionism" will see an increase in unfair trading practices. Mr Visentin confirmed ongoing disputes over negotiations for a free trade agreement between Australia and the EU were unresolved but encouraged both governments to "team up and defend tree trade." "Nothing has changed in terms of content. The differences are still there. And are still difficult to resolve and to address," he said. "What has changed, of course, is the willingness and the readiness to try to strike a deal. We have seen an incredible change in the geopolitics and in the world of trade." Australia will push ahead with informal talks for a new security agreement with Europe which could involve future defence industry cooperation and intelligence sharing, the EU's top diplomat has confirmed. Gabriele Visentin, the European Union's ambassador to Australia, said both sides have agreed to informal talks about the prospect of a security pact after the EU floated the idea on the sidelines of Pope Leo XIV's inauguration in May. Mr Visentin said a potential deal would mirror similar agreements between the EU and other countries such as Japan and South Korea, which involve military exercises and other cooperation in areas of mutual interest. "It's not a military alliance. It's a partnership for co-operation on defence issues, including industrial things," the envoy told the National Press Club on Wednesday. "So there is no scope for an understanding in terms of transfer of troops or mutual help and mutual assistance." Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared to initially downplay the idea of a security pact with the EU after noting Australia already had similar agreements in place with other European countries, including Germany. Mr Visentin indicated he was optimistic the Albanese government would come around after Defence Minister Richard Marles held a recent meeting with the bloc's High Representative in Singapore. European countries are preparing to spend billions of dollars to rebuild their armies in the wake of reduced support from the US and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Mr Visentin said a European security pact with Australia would be critical as Russia broadens its ambitions beyond Ukraine and China scales up its military posture in the Indo-Pacific. "I think that there are geopolitical tensions which are aiming at reversing what the international rules-based order is, regardless of the actors. And I think that we have to team up to defend that," he said. In a thinly veiled reference to US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, Mr Visentin also expressed concerns that rising "isolationism and protectionism" will see an increase in unfair trading practices. Mr Visentin confirmed ongoing disputes over negotiations for a free trade agreement between Australia and the EU were unresolved but encouraged both governments to "team up and defend tree trade." "Nothing has changed in terms of content. The differences are still there. And are still difficult to resolve and to address," he said. "What has changed, of course, is the willingness and the readiness to try to strike a deal. We have seen an incredible change in the geopolitics and in the world of trade." Australia will push ahead with informal talks for a new security agreement with Europe which could involve future defence industry cooperation and intelligence sharing, the EU's top diplomat has confirmed. Gabriele Visentin, the European Union's ambassador to Australia, said both sides have agreed to informal talks about the prospect of a security pact after the EU floated the idea on the sidelines of Pope Leo XIV's inauguration in May. Mr Visentin said a potential deal would mirror similar agreements between the EU and other countries such as Japan and South Korea, which involve military exercises and other cooperation in areas of mutual interest. "It's not a military alliance. It's a partnership for co-operation on defence issues, including industrial things," the envoy told the National Press Club on Wednesday. "So there is no scope for an understanding in terms of transfer of troops or mutual help and mutual assistance." Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared to initially downplay the idea of a security pact with the EU after noting Australia already had similar agreements in place with other European countries, including Germany. Mr Visentin indicated he was optimistic the Albanese government would come around after Defence Minister Richard Marles held a recent meeting with the bloc's High Representative in Singapore. European countries are preparing to spend billions of dollars to rebuild their armies in the wake of reduced support from the US and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Mr Visentin said a European security pact with Australia would be critical as Russia broadens its ambitions beyond Ukraine and China scales up its military posture in the Indo-Pacific. "I think that there are geopolitical tensions which are aiming at reversing what the international rules-based order is, regardless of the actors. And I think that we have to team up to defend that," he said. In a thinly veiled reference to US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, Mr Visentin also expressed concerns that rising "isolationism and protectionism" will see an increase in unfair trading practices. Mr Visentin confirmed ongoing disputes over negotiations for a free trade agreement between Australia and the EU were unresolved but encouraged both governments to "team up and defend tree trade." "Nothing has changed in terms of content. The differences are still there. And are still difficult to resolve and to address," he said. "What has changed, of course, is the willingness and the readiness to try to strike a deal. We have seen an incredible change in the geopolitics and in the world of trade."


The Advertiser
2 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Ukrainian army says it struck Russian gunpowder plant
The Ukrainian military says it has struck a major Russian gunpowder plant in the western Tambov region, causing a fire at the site. The Ukrainian military characterised the plant as one of the main facilities in Russia's military industrial complex. "It produces gunpowder for various types of small arms, artillery and rocket systems," it said in a statement on Telegram. Tambov regional Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov said early on Wednesday that Russian defences had repelled a "massive attack" by Ukrainian drones on the town of Kotovsk, which independent Russian media identified as the site of a gunpowder plant. He said one downed drone had caused a fire but no casualties, and the situation was under control. Pervyshov also told people not to film and publish images of air defence operations and attempted attacks, as this would provide "direct assistance to the enemy". The Tambov gunpowder plant produces propellant powders used in charges for ammunition for 122 mm and 152 mm howitzers, according to a report from the Royal United Services Institute and the Open Source Centre. The Ukrainian military also said that it recorded explosions at an ammunition depot in Russia's Kursk region and an airfield depot in Russia's Voronezh region. Reuters was not able to independently confirm the incidents. Ukraine accepted the bodies of 1212 of its fallen soldiers from Russia after days of dispute, the Ukrainian agency dealing with prisoners of war said on Wednesday. The soldiers died in battles in Russia's Kursk region and the Ukrainian regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the agency said. Russia received 27 killed soldiers in return, Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said. "Now they can be laid to rest in a Christian manner," he wrote on Telegram. Russia has for days accused Ukraine of failing to accept the remains, and called on Ukrainian authorities to comply with agreements reached between the warring parties in talks in Istanbul at the beginning of the month. Russia transported the bodies ready for handover over the weekend in what it termed a "humanitarian action" while Ukraine said that no agreement on a handover date had been reached. The Istanbul talks provided for the return of the remains of more than 6000 fallen soldiers from Russia to Ukraine. Work on implementing the Istanbul agreements will continue, Medinsky said, with an exchange of seriously wounded prisoners of war to take place on Thursday. Ukraine and Russia had already exchanged an unspecified number of prisoners in recent days. In Istanbul, it was agreed that each side would release in stages 1200 prisoners - those under 25, the seriously wounded and the seriously ill. Ukraine has been defending itself against a Russian invasion for more than three years. During the war, there have been repeated exchanges of prisoners and the return of bodies. A Russian drone strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv killed at least two people and injured dozens, local media reported early on Wednesday. with DPA The Ukrainian military says it has struck a major Russian gunpowder plant in the western Tambov region, causing a fire at the site. The Ukrainian military characterised the plant as one of the main facilities in Russia's military industrial complex. "It produces gunpowder for various types of small arms, artillery and rocket systems," it said in a statement on Telegram. Tambov regional Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov said early on Wednesday that Russian defences had repelled a "massive attack" by Ukrainian drones on the town of Kotovsk, which independent Russian media identified as the site of a gunpowder plant. He said one downed drone had caused a fire but no casualties, and the situation was under control. Pervyshov also told people not to film and publish images of air defence operations and attempted attacks, as this would provide "direct assistance to the enemy". The Tambov gunpowder plant produces propellant powders used in charges for ammunition for 122 mm and 152 mm howitzers, according to a report from the Royal United Services Institute and the Open Source Centre. The Ukrainian military also said that it recorded explosions at an ammunition depot in Russia's Kursk region and an airfield depot in Russia's Voronezh region. Reuters was not able to independently confirm the incidents. Ukraine accepted the bodies of 1212 of its fallen soldiers from Russia after days of dispute, the Ukrainian agency dealing with prisoners of war said on Wednesday. The soldiers died in battles in Russia's Kursk region and the Ukrainian regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the agency said. Russia received 27 killed soldiers in return, Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said. "Now they can be laid to rest in a Christian manner," he wrote on Telegram. Russia has for days accused Ukraine of failing to accept the remains, and called on Ukrainian authorities to comply with agreements reached between the warring parties in talks in Istanbul at the beginning of the month. Russia transported the bodies ready for handover over the weekend in what it termed a "humanitarian action" while Ukraine said that no agreement on a handover date had been reached. The Istanbul talks provided for the return of the remains of more than 6000 fallen soldiers from Russia to Ukraine. Work on implementing the Istanbul agreements will continue, Medinsky said, with an exchange of seriously wounded prisoners of war to take place on Thursday. Ukraine and Russia had already exchanged an unspecified number of prisoners in recent days. In Istanbul, it was agreed that each side would release in stages 1200 prisoners - those under 25, the seriously wounded and the seriously ill. Ukraine has been defending itself against a Russian invasion for more than three years. During the war, there have been repeated exchanges of prisoners and the return of bodies. A Russian drone strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv killed at least two people and injured dozens, local media reported early on Wednesday. with DPA The Ukrainian military says it has struck a major Russian gunpowder plant in the western Tambov region, causing a fire at the site. The Ukrainian military characterised the plant as one of the main facilities in Russia's military industrial complex. "It produces gunpowder for various types of small arms, artillery and rocket systems," it said in a statement on Telegram. Tambov regional Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov said early on Wednesday that Russian defences had repelled a "massive attack" by Ukrainian drones on the town of Kotovsk, which independent Russian media identified as the site of a gunpowder plant. He said one downed drone had caused a fire but no casualties, and the situation was under control. Pervyshov also told people not to film and publish images of air defence operations and attempted attacks, as this would provide "direct assistance to the enemy". The Tambov gunpowder plant produces propellant powders used in charges for ammunition for 122 mm and 152 mm howitzers, according to a report from the Royal United Services Institute and the Open Source Centre. The Ukrainian military also said that it recorded explosions at an ammunition depot in Russia's Kursk region and an airfield depot in Russia's Voronezh region. Reuters was not able to independently confirm the incidents. Ukraine accepted the bodies of 1212 of its fallen soldiers from Russia after days of dispute, the Ukrainian agency dealing with prisoners of war said on Wednesday. The soldiers died in battles in Russia's Kursk region and the Ukrainian regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the agency said. Russia received 27 killed soldiers in return, Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said. "Now they can be laid to rest in a Christian manner," he wrote on Telegram. Russia has for days accused Ukraine of failing to accept the remains, and called on Ukrainian authorities to comply with agreements reached between the warring parties in talks in Istanbul at the beginning of the month. Russia transported the bodies ready for handover over the weekend in what it termed a "humanitarian action" while Ukraine said that no agreement on a handover date had been reached. The Istanbul talks provided for the return of the remains of more than 6000 fallen soldiers from Russia to Ukraine. Work on implementing the Istanbul agreements will continue, Medinsky said, with an exchange of seriously wounded prisoners of war to take place on Thursday. Ukraine and Russia had already exchanged an unspecified number of prisoners in recent days. In Istanbul, it was agreed that each side would release in stages 1200 prisoners - those under 25, the seriously wounded and the seriously ill. Ukraine has been defending itself against a Russian invasion for more than three years. During the war, there have been repeated exchanges of prisoners and the return of bodies. A Russian drone strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv killed at least two people and injured dozens, local media reported early on Wednesday. with DPA The Ukrainian military says it has struck a major Russian gunpowder plant in the western Tambov region, causing a fire at the site. The Ukrainian military characterised the plant as one of the main facilities in Russia's military industrial complex. "It produces gunpowder for various types of small arms, artillery and rocket systems," it said in a statement on Telegram. Tambov regional Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov said early on Wednesday that Russian defences had repelled a "massive attack" by Ukrainian drones on the town of Kotovsk, which independent Russian media identified as the site of a gunpowder plant. He said one downed drone had caused a fire but no casualties, and the situation was under control. Pervyshov also told people not to film and publish images of air defence operations and attempted attacks, as this would provide "direct assistance to the enemy". The Tambov gunpowder plant produces propellant powders used in charges for ammunition for 122 mm and 152 mm howitzers, according to a report from the Royal United Services Institute and the Open Source Centre. The Ukrainian military also said that it recorded explosions at an ammunition depot in Russia's Kursk region and an airfield depot in Russia's Voronezh region. Reuters was not able to independently confirm the incidents. Ukraine accepted the bodies of 1212 of its fallen soldiers from Russia after days of dispute, the Ukrainian agency dealing with prisoners of war said on Wednesday. The soldiers died in battles in Russia's Kursk region and the Ukrainian regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the agency said. Russia received 27 killed soldiers in return, Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said. "Now they can be laid to rest in a Christian manner," he wrote on Telegram. Russia has for days accused Ukraine of failing to accept the remains, and called on Ukrainian authorities to comply with agreements reached between the warring parties in talks in Istanbul at the beginning of the month. Russia transported the bodies ready for handover over the weekend in what it termed a "humanitarian action" while Ukraine said that no agreement on a handover date had been reached. The Istanbul talks provided for the return of the remains of more than 6000 fallen soldiers from Russia to Ukraine. Work on implementing the Istanbul agreements will continue, Medinsky said, with an exchange of seriously wounded prisoners of war to take place on Thursday. Ukraine and Russia had already exchanged an unspecified number of prisoners in recent days. In Istanbul, it was agreed that each side would release in stages 1200 prisoners - those under 25, the seriously wounded and the seriously ill. Ukraine has been defending itself against a Russian invasion for more than three years. During the war, there have been repeated exchanges of prisoners and the return of bodies. A Russian drone strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv killed at least two people and injured dozens, local media reported early on Wednesday. with DPA


Canberra Times
3 hours ago
- Canberra Times
Ukrainian army says it struck Russian gunpowder plant
Russia has for days accused Ukraine of failing to accept the remains, and called on Ukrainian authorities to comply with agreements reached between the warring parties in talks in Istanbul at the beginning of the month.