Coalition's support collapses to 40-year low
According to the latest Newspoll in The Australian, Labor has slightly increased its primary vote to 36 per cent.
But support for the Coalition has dropped since the May election to 29 per cent.
Labor has extended its two-party preferred lead over the Coalition, now at 57 per cent to 43 per cent.
Anthony Albanese maintains a strong lead as preferred PM, leading Sussan Ley by a 20 per cent margin.
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West Australian
29 minutes ago
- West Australian
Katina Curtis: Turn up and tune in to 48th season of Parliament, will it be a blockbuster or bomb?
Settle in folks, the 48th season of Australia's Parliament is about to air its debut episode. Same sets, same lead character, new actors in key roles, new drama and hopefully some new plotlines. This first parliamentary sitting after the election will set the tone for what's to come. Sussan Ley has been telling everyone on her listening tour that she knows the Liberals got smashed. The reality of just what that means will sink in once everyone gathers in the House of Representatives on Tuesday. Labor MPs are set to sprawl across the chamber's aisle — Perth's Patrick Gorman is among five assistant ministers seated in what's traditionally crossbench territory. Meanwhile, the remaining members of the Coalition fit into about two-thirds of the space they previously occupied. The Government's key challenges are twofold: not to succumb to the hubris of the thumping victory, and to work out what it will do once it delivers its election pledges. Anthony Albanese's opening lines to his colleagues on Monday were a reminder that Labor has more often sat in Parliament's opposition party room than in the government one. Despite the humble rhetoric, Labor is sticking the knife into its opponents in sly ways. Ali France (who defeated Peter Dutton) and Sarah Witty (who beat Adam Bandt) will kick off more than 11 hours of speeches by new MPs this week. Not coincidentally, both are also seated within TV shot behind the Prime Minister. And of the 24 backbench MPs in those positions that routinely end up on the nightly news, 16 are women, in stark contrast to the Coalition. The fresh season also gives Tony Burke and Albanese another crack at rewriting the standing orders. Last time they laid several traps for new players and they're keen to test anew how Ley and her lieutenants manage parliamentary tactics. As for a full term's worth of stuff to get done, Jim Chalmers setting up the economic reform roundtable next month is a good base from which to build an argument for hard tax changes. That point is grudgingly conceded among his opponents, although they're waiting to see if Albanese has the same enthusiasm for tough changes as his Treasurer. There is even a growing openness from some in the Coalition to a move to increase the GST rate or broaden its base in exchange for lower income taxes amid a grand package to make the budget bottom line more sustainable. For Ley, the plotlines ahead could contain treachery and she needs to show steel to her own ranks. Not everyone is content with the tone of constructiveness struck since she took over as leader — although Ley warned the PM on Monday that 'we won't be getting out of the way' on everything — and already questions are being whispered about her tactical nous. Whether you stay tuned or switch off until early 2028, there will be plenty going on.
The Advertiser
29 minutes ago
- The Advertiser
Party's over: the election trend that threatens majors
Tasmania's politicians might need to get used to sharing power amid a falling Labor vote and crossbench rise. Incumbent premier Jeremy Rockliff and Labor's Dean Winter are courting the support of independents after Saturday's snap poll delivered another hung parliament. With three seats still in doubt, the Liberals have secured 14 and Labor nine - both short of the 18 needed for a majority, with the Greens on five and four independents. Mr Rockliff has declared he has a mandate to govern with the most seats, but Mr Winter hasn't ruled out relying on confidence and supply of the Greens to govern. Several independents have said they're open to backing either Mr Rockliff or Mr Winter as the state's next premier. With three-quarters of the count completed, Labor's primary vote has dropped 3.2 per cent to 25.8 - the lowest for the party in Tasmanian history. It came despite a massive swing toward Labor in the state at the May federal poll. The Liberals ran a campaign narrative of laying the blame for an early election at the feet of Mr Winter, after a Labor-led no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff was successful. "It may have been a case of 'we've given you a chance and rewarded you at federal level and now you want to be rewarded again?'," election analyst Kevin Bonham said of Labor's poor showing. Labor has been in opposition since 2014 and has struggled for traction despite ballooning net debt and infrastructure stuff-ups under the Liberals. The Liberals picked up a 3.2 per cent swing with a primary vote of 39.9 per cent, well away from their 48.7 per cent when they were elected in majority in 2021. One-third of the state didn't vote for the major two parties, with several independents increasing their support. The Liberals were plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench. A snap 2024 poll delivered a hung parliament but Labor refused to govern. While it wasn't the end of majority government, it was now more difficult for the majors to get there, Dr Bonham said. A roughly 20 per cent cohort of voters who traditionally swung between the major parties in Tasmania had seemingly broken down, he said. Labor went to the election without big vote-getter Rebecca White, who has switched to federal politics, and popular ex-Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who retired. The Liberals ran ex-federal MPs Bridget Archer and Gavin Pearce, who were both elected. Tasmania's politicians might need to get used to sharing power amid a falling Labor vote and crossbench rise. Incumbent premier Jeremy Rockliff and Labor's Dean Winter are courting the support of independents after Saturday's snap poll delivered another hung parliament. With three seats still in doubt, the Liberals have secured 14 and Labor nine - both short of the 18 needed for a majority, with the Greens on five and four independents. Mr Rockliff has declared he has a mandate to govern with the most seats, but Mr Winter hasn't ruled out relying on confidence and supply of the Greens to govern. Several independents have said they're open to backing either Mr Rockliff or Mr Winter as the state's next premier. With three-quarters of the count completed, Labor's primary vote has dropped 3.2 per cent to 25.8 - the lowest for the party in Tasmanian history. It came despite a massive swing toward Labor in the state at the May federal poll. The Liberals ran a campaign narrative of laying the blame for an early election at the feet of Mr Winter, after a Labor-led no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff was successful. "It may have been a case of 'we've given you a chance and rewarded you at federal level and now you want to be rewarded again?'," election analyst Kevin Bonham said of Labor's poor showing. Labor has been in opposition since 2014 and has struggled for traction despite ballooning net debt and infrastructure stuff-ups under the Liberals. The Liberals picked up a 3.2 per cent swing with a primary vote of 39.9 per cent, well away from their 48.7 per cent when they were elected in majority in 2021. One-third of the state didn't vote for the major two parties, with several independents increasing their support. The Liberals were plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench. A snap 2024 poll delivered a hung parliament but Labor refused to govern. While it wasn't the end of majority government, it was now more difficult for the majors to get there, Dr Bonham said. A roughly 20 per cent cohort of voters who traditionally swung between the major parties in Tasmania had seemingly broken down, he said. Labor went to the election without big vote-getter Rebecca White, who has switched to federal politics, and popular ex-Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who retired. The Liberals ran ex-federal MPs Bridget Archer and Gavin Pearce, who were both elected. Tasmania's politicians might need to get used to sharing power amid a falling Labor vote and crossbench rise. Incumbent premier Jeremy Rockliff and Labor's Dean Winter are courting the support of independents after Saturday's snap poll delivered another hung parliament. With three seats still in doubt, the Liberals have secured 14 and Labor nine - both short of the 18 needed for a majority, with the Greens on five and four independents. Mr Rockliff has declared he has a mandate to govern with the most seats, but Mr Winter hasn't ruled out relying on confidence and supply of the Greens to govern. Several independents have said they're open to backing either Mr Rockliff or Mr Winter as the state's next premier. With three-quarters of the count completed, Labor's primary vote has dropped 3.2 per cent to 25.8 - the lowest for the party in Tasmanian history. It came despite a massive swing toward Labor in the state at the May federal poll. The Liberals ran a campaign narrative of laying the blame for an early election at the feet of Mr Winter, after a Labor-led no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff was successful. "It may have been a case of 'we've given you a chance and rewarded you at federal level and now you want to be rewarded again?'," election analyst Kevin Bonham said of Labor's poor showing. Labor has been in opposition since 2014 and has struggled for traction despite ballooning net debt and infrastructure stuff-ups under the Liberals. The Liberals picked up a 3.2 per cent swing with a primary vote of 39.9 per cent, well away from their 48.7 per cent when they were elected in majority in 2021. One-third of the state didn't vote for the major two parties, with several independents increasing their support. The Liberals were plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench. A snap 2024 poll delivered a hung parliament but Labor refused to govern. While it wasn't the end of majority government, it was now more difficult for the majors to get there, Dr Bonham said. A roughly 20 per cent cohort of voters who traditionally swung between the major parties in Tasmania had seemingly broken down, he said. Labor went to the election without big vote-getter Rebecca White, who has switched to federal politics, and popular ex-Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who retired. The Liberals ran ex-federal MPs Bridget Archer and Gavin Pearce, who were both elected. Tasmania's politicians might need to get used to sharing power amid a falling Labor vote and crossbench rise. Incumbent premier Jeremy Rockliff and Labor's Dean Winter are courting the support of independents after Saturday's snap poll delivered another hung parliament. With three seats still in doubt, the Liberals have secured 14 and Labor nine - both short of the 18 needed for a majority, with the Greens on five and four independents. Mr Rockliff has declared he has a mandate to govern with the most seats, but Mr Winter hasn't ruled out relying on confidence and supply of the Greens to govern. Several independents have said they're open to backing either Mr Rockliff or Mr Winter as the state's next premier. With three-quarters of the count completed, Labor's primary vote has dropped 3.2 per cent to 25.8 - the lowest for the party in Tasmanian history. It came despite a massive swing toward Labor in the state at the May federal poll. The Liberals ran a campaign narrative of laying the blame for an early election at the feet of Mr Winter, after a Labor-led no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff was successful. "It may have been a case of 'we've given you a chance and rewarded you at federal level and now you want to be rewarded again?'," election analyst Kevin Bonham said of Labor's poor showing. Labor has been in opposition since 2014 and has struggled for traction despite ballooning net debt and infrastructure stuff-ups under the Liberals. The Liberals picked up a 3.2 per cent swing with a primary vote of 39.9 per cent, well away from their 48.7 per cent when they were elected in majority in 2021. One-third of the state didn't vote for the major two parties, with several independents increasing their support. The Liberals were plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench. A snap 2024 poll delivered a hung parliament but Labor refused to govern. While it wasn't the end of majority government, it was now more difficult for the majors to get there, Dr Bonham said. A roughly 20 per cent cohort of voters who traditionally swung between the major parties in Tasmania had seemingly broken down, he said. Labor went to the election without big vote-getter Rebecca White, who has switched to federal politics, and popular ex-Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who retired. The Liberals ran ex-federal MPs Bridget Archer and Gavin Pearce, who were both elected.
ABC News
an hour ago
- ABC News
Japanese PM's election blow, amid rise of far right
Andy Park: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay on despite his ruling coalition losing power in the country's upper house. His coalition now looks on course for the worst results since it was founded last century. One surprise was the dramatic rise of the far right Sanseito party with its Japanese first campaign and warnings about a quote silent invasion of foreigners. The world's fourth largest economy faces an August 1st deadline to strike a deal with the US on trade. Donna Weeks is a specialist in Japanese politics and professor emeritus at Musashino University. She joined me earlier from Tokyo. Welcome to you, emeritus professor. Donna Weeks: Thank you, Andy. Good to be with you again. Andy Park: How much of a crushing blow is this result for the incumbent Prime Minister who's suffered his second poor election result in less than a year? Donna Weeks: Well, that's right. And I think for a Prime Minister to lose the majority in one election is tough, but to lose it twice, it's going to raise a lot of questions for where Ishiba goes next. Obviously, last night as the results coming through, he expressed his intention to stay on. But Monday morning, the morning after, there's some within the governing LDP who want to see him go and make some changes since he's been effectively, they say, rejected by the electorate twice now. Andy Park: What effect has inflation, particularly from a consumer perspective, the jump in the cost of rice had on sentiment in this election? Donna Weeks: This has been really interesting. I think as we see with trends right around the world, the cost of living has hit Japan and Japanese people quite a lot. And that has certainly been one of the factors that people have looked at. And the rice issue over the last year or so, that doesn't seem to be getting solved. And there's, you know, when we get right down to the nitty gritty of some of the results in former LDP strongholds where rice farmers would just walk in and support the LDP, we've actually seen in some of those areas that one of the democratic parties has actually won some seats. So there's no sort of consistency, if you like, across the results. They're really quite scattered and it's probably going to take me a couple of days to work my way through them. It's been really interesting. Andy Park: What do we know about the far right Sanseito party? Spawned online in COVID and expected to dramatically increase its seats in parliament on the back of its Japanese first or Japanese people first campaign. It's been likened to Germany's AFD and Reform UK, hasn't it? Donna Weeks: Yes, it has. And it is that type of party that, you know, we're seeing this across the world at the moment. There's a kind of a nationalist tendency to blame foreigners immigration. Sanseito, as you say, has really run on this platform of Japanese people first, and they're really expressing it strongly in that sense. They've stayed away from, if I may say, the legacy media. Their popularity has certainly come through the use of social media in a very strong way. And I guess, you know, tourism here in Japan, the last couple of years, you have seen a great increase in the number of tourists coming to Japan. But there's also an increase in foreign workers in places where, as one analyst has just said, you know, you can walk into a convenience store and you'll have a foreigner behind the counter and things like that. Now, some people say, well, that's really good. It's helping the GDP. It's helping with our cost of living. And others, as we've seen with, say, parties like this in Australia, are saying, you know, they're foreigners taking our jobs. They're foreigners buying up our real estate. The commonalities with the issues that we're seeing in elections right around the world at the moment is really something I think worth following and something for us as professional political analysts, professional political players. I think we really have to start taking notice of these things and look at ways to work around this to find answers to these issues that obviously people have. Andy Park: Donna Weeks is a specialist in Japanese politics and Professor Emeritus at Musashino University in Tokyo. I do appreciate your time. Thank you. Donna Weeks: Thank you, Andy.
