Initial FPI rankings place Florida in College Football Playoff picture
Initial FPI rankings place Florida in College Football Playoff picture
Florida's return to national prominence in 2025 appears likely, with DJ Lagway leading the offense. ESPN's recent relaunch of the College Football Power Index has the Gators among the top 20 teams in contention for an NCAA Championship.
Florida sits at No. 18 on the 2025 College FPI with a 14.3 power index. ESPN projects the Gators to finish the 2025 season with a 6.4-5.6 record and gives UF a 68.2% chance to reach six wins (bowl eligibility). But Florida also plays the toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN, which means a seven-win season could be enough to sneak into the playoffs. Florida's CFP odds sit at a surprisingly high 14.5%, and 0.7% odds to win the national championship are the 19th best.
"FPI is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team's strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes," Paine reminds us. "Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team's odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title."
FPI projects the SEC to send 4.6 teams to the College Football Playoff this year, with Alabama, Georgia and Texas being the strongest candidates. Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas A&M make up the next tier of SEC teams, with South Carolina and Oklahoma on the outer edge. Florida is behind all of them, but a few key wins could change things. ESPN highlights an Oct. 4 matchup with Texas and the Georgia game on Nov. 1 as the most anticipated games on Florida's schedule, ranking Nos. 6 and 15 on the national schedule.
The biggest reason for optimism is Florida being ranked inside the top 20 on both offense and defense. The Gators' 7.0 offensive FPI ranks No. 14 and is the result of a 27-spot jump over the offseason. On defense, a 6.4 rating is good for No. 16 in the country, one spot up from the last update.
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