WH responds to Epstein files controversy
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The Independent
16 minutes ago
- The Independent
FACT FOCUS: Trump claims cashless bail increases crime, but data is inconclusive
As his administration faces mounting pressure to release Justice Department files related the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking case, President Donald Trump is highlighting a different criminal justice issue — cashless bail. He suggested in a Truth Social post this week that eliminating cash bail as a condition of pretrial release from jail has led to rising crime in U.S. cities that have enacted these reforms. However, studies have shown no clear link. Here's a closer look at the facts. TRUMP: 'Crime in American Cities started to significantly rise when they went to CASHLESS BAIL. The WORST criminals are flooding our streets and endangering even our great law enforcement officers. It is a complete disaster, and must be ended, IMMEDIATELY!' THE FACTS: Data has not determined the impact of cashless bail on crime rates. But experts say it is incorrect to claim that there is an adverse connection. 'I don't know of any valid studies corroborating the President's claim and would love to know what the Administration offers in support,' said Kellen Funk, a professor at Columbia Law School who studies pretrial procedure and bail bonding. 'In my professional judgment I'd call the claim demonstrably false and inflammatory.' Jeff Clayton, executive director of the American Bail Coalition, the main lobbying arm of the cash bail industry, also pointed to a lack of evidence. 'Studies are inconclusive in terms of whether bail reforms have had an impact on overall crime numbers,' he said. 'This is due to pretrial crime being a small subset of overall crime. It is also difficult to categorize reforms as being 'cashless' or not, i.e., policies where preventative detention is introduced as an alternative to being held on bail.' Different jurisdictions, different laws In 2023, Illinois became the first state to completely eliminate cash bail when the state Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the law abolishing it. The move was part of an expansive criminal justice overhaul adopted in 2021 known as the SAFE-T Act. Under the change, a judge decides whether to release the defendant prior to their trial, weighing factors such as their criminal charges, if they could pose any danger to others and if they are considered a flight risk. Loyola University of Chicago's Center for Criminal Justice published a 2024 report on Illinois' new cashless bail policy, one year after it went into effect. It acknowledges that there is not yet enough data to know what impact the law has had on crime, but that crime in Illinois did not increase after its implementation. Violent and property crime declined in some counties. A number of other jurisdictions, including New Jersey, New Mexico and Washington, D.C., have nearly eliminated cash bail or limited its use. Many include exceptions for high-level crimes. Proponents of eliminating cash bail describe it as a penalty on poverty, suggesting that the wealthy can pay their way out of jail to await trial while those with fewer financial resources have to sit it out behind bars. Critics have argued that bail is a time-honored way to ensure defendants released from jail show up for court proceedings. They warn that violent criminals will be released pending trial, giving them license to commit other crimes. A lack of consensus Studies have shown mixed results regarding the impact of cashless bail on crime. Many focus on the recidivism of individual defendants rather than overall crime rates. A 2024 report published by the Brennan Center for Justice saw 'no statistically significant relationship' between bail reform and crime rates. It looked at crime rate data from 2015 through 2021 for 33 cities across the U.S., 22 of which had instituted some type of bail reform. Researchers used a statistical method to determine if crime rates had diverged in those with reforms and those without. Ames Grawert, the report's co-author and senior counsel in the Brennan Center's Justice Program, said this conclusion "holds true for trends in crime overall or specifically violent crime.' Similarly, a 2023 paper published in the American Economic Journal found no evidence that cash bail helps ensure defendants will show up in court or prevents crime among those who are released while awaiting trial. The paper evaluated the impact of a 2018 policy instituted by the Philadelphia's district attorney that instructed prosecutors not to set bail for certain offenses. A 2019 court decree in Harris County, Texas, requires most people charged with a misdemeanor to be released without bail while awaiting trial. The latest report from the monitoring team responsible for tracking the impact of this decision, released in 2024, notes that the number of people arrested for misdemeanors has declined by more than 15% since 2015. The number of those rearrested within one year has similarly declined, with rearrest rates remaining stable in recent years. Asked what data Trump was using to support his claim, the White House pointed to a 2022 report from the district attorney's office in Yolo County, California, that looked at how a temporary cashless bail system implemented across the state to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks in courts and jails impacted recidivism. It found that out of 595 individuals released between April 2020 and May 2021 under this system, 70.6% were arrested again after they were released. A little more than half were rearrested more than once. A more recent paper, published in February by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, also explored the effects of California's decision to suspend most bail during the COVID-19 pandemic. It reports that implementation of this policy 'caused notable increases in both the likelihood and number of rearrests within 30 days.' However, a return to cash bail did not impact the number of rearrests for any type of offense. The paper acknowledges that other factors, such as societal disruption from the pandemic, could have contributed to the initial increase. Many contributing factors It is difficult to pinpoint specific explanations for why crime rises and falls. The American Bail Coalition's Clayton noted that other policies that have had a negative impact on crime, implemented concurrently with bail reforms, make it 'difficult to isolate or elevate one or more causes over the others.' Paul Heaton, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania who studies criminal justice interventions, had a similar outlook. 'Certainly there are some policy levers that people look at — the size of the police force and certain policies around sentencing,' he said. 'But there's a lot of variation in crime that I think even criminologists don't necessarily fully understand.'
Channel 4
16 minutes ago
- Channel 4
What does Trump have planned on Scotland trip?
Trump can expect a somewhat mixed welcome this weekend – one Scottish newspaper depicted his photo on its front page alongside the headline 'convicted US felon to arrive in Scotland'.
Telegraph
17 minutes ago
- Telegraph
Turnberry turned into ‘American prison' for Trump's arrival
Turnberry resort has been transformed into an 'American prison', complete with high fencing and 'sniper towers', for Donald Trump's visit. The US president touched down in Scotland on Friday evening for a few days of golf at his resort in Ayrshire ahead of a trip to Aberdeen next week. Campaign groups have vowed to welcome Mr Trump with a 'festival of resistance', aiming to make their voice heard on issues from climate change to the plight of Palestinians. Gavin Scott, an independent councillor for Girvan and South Carrick, said police had gone above and beyond to deter potential disruption. He told The Telegraph: 'A local resident likened the high fencing and sniper tower surrounding the golf course to an American prison, finding the view quite disturbing and intimidating with a large armed police presence.' Trump Turnberry has become a lightning rod for protest groups targeting the president this year. Palestine Action daubed the resort's white buildings in red paint in March and Greenpeace created a sand portrait of Mr Trump on the beach by the course beside a message reading: 'Time to fight the billionaire takeover'. Earlier this week, protesters sabotaged a sign at Mr Trump's golf course in Aberdeenshire with a placard that claimed the luxury resort was 'twinned with Epstein Island'. The stunt was staged by the political campaign group Everyone Hates Elon as the US president faces renewed scrutiny over his past links to Jeffrey Epstein, the financier and sex offender who died in 2024. On Monday, White House communications director Stephen Cheung said Trump once kicked Epstein out of his club for being a 'creep' and called allegations about him 'recycled, old fake news'. Mr Trump's visit to the UK will include hosting Sir Keir Starmer for dinner before travelling to the 'oil capital of Europe' Aberdeen for 'lunches' and opening the new golf course at his resort at Menie. Mr Trump told reporters at the White House that 'Turnberry is rated the number one golf course in the world'. 'I'm going to see it for the first time in years,' he said, adding: 'It's the best resort in the world, I think. It's one of the greatest courses.' Mr Scott said there had been murmurs of discontent around the villages over 'who's footing the bill' for the extra security. 'To ask Police Scotland or our own government to pay for an already undermanned police force is quite ridiculous and grossly unfair,' he said. Cllr Alec Clark, deputy leader of South Ayrshire Council, said there would always be 'associated costs for any world leaders visit'. 'This is a democracy and people are entitled to make their feelings known,' he told The Telegraph. Emma Bond, Asst Chief Constable, encouraged protest groups to discuss their plans with police. She said: 'As you can imagine, it is a large-scale, complex operation, but actually that's something that Police Scotland is immensely experienced at doing.' The policing plan involves local, national and specialist officers from Police Scotland as well as other forces. She said: 'The key very much is to make sure the president of the United States can come, enjoy a peaceful and safe visit to Scotland and ensure Police Scotland is able to maintain delivery of services to the rest of the community within Scotland over the period of his visit.' Despite the protests, Mr Scott said most residents were supportive of Mr Trump. 'The feeling on the ground here in Girvan and surrounding villages is mainly of excitement and quite happy about President Trump's visit,' he said, pointing out that Mr Trump had refurbished the hotel and tended to the world famous course. 'Something tells me he is using his round to help persuade the R&A to return 'The Open' to Turnberry, we all wish him well on that one, what an achievement that would be!' The Ailsa course at Turnberry, sporting views of the granite craig in the Firth of Clyde and across to the Isle of Arran and the Mull of Kintyre, has hosted the Open championship four times. The course last hosted the British golf tournament in 2009 and Mr Trump is thought to be eyeing up one of the next free slots from 2028 onwards. 'No friend of Scotland' Campaign groups will gather by the William Wallace Statue at Union Terrace in Aberdeen, as well as outside the US consulate in Edinburgh on Saturday. Speaking ahead of the protests, Alena Ivanova, a campaigner with the Stop Trump Coalition said: 'Donald Trump may shake hands with our leaders, but he's no friend of Scotland. 'We, the people of Scotland, see the damage he has done – to democracy and working people in the US, to the global efforts to tackle the climate crisis, to the very principles of justice and humanity.' She added: 'As he dreams of rivieras built on the bones of Palestinians, we demand an end to the genocide. 'Trump is not welcome because he represents all that Scottish people reject.' Liz Murray, head of Scottish campaigns at Global Justice Now who are a part of the Stop Trump Coalition added: 'Trump is bullying his way around the world, slapping tariffs on countries, or threatening to – and that includes us here. 'He's using these threats to impose the interests of his oligarch friends on us – and in particular the Big Tech barons who have his ear – when actually governments should be taxing them and reining in their power. 'It's vital that both Keir Starmer and John Swinney stand up to him – because if they give him an inch on this or anything else he'll take a mile.'
