Egypt's annual urban consumer price inflation down to 13.9% in July, CAPMAS says
Urban food and beverage prices were down 3% overall compared to June 2025 but rose by 3.4% against July 2024.
Urban inflation on a monthly basis inched down in July by 0.5% compared to June, as meat and poultry prices were down by 4.9%, fruits by 11% and vegetables by 7%, while the prices of bread and cereals were up by 0.4% and seafood by 0.2%.
Egypt's annual inflation has plunged from a record high of 38% in September 2023, helped by an $8 billion financial support package agreed with the International Monetary Fund in March 2024.
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Reuters
6 minutes ago
- Reuters
Burghley Capital: BoE Rate Cut Signals Cautious Policy Path
LONDON, United Kingdom, August 13, 2025 (EZ Newswire) -- Burghley Capital, opens new tab positions the Bank of England's latest interest rate decision within the broader context of monetary policy recalibration, noting the complex trade-off between inflation control and growth stability. The Monetary Policy Committee votes by a narrow 5–4 margin to reduce the Bank Rate from 4.25% to 4.00%, a move requiring a second ballot not used since 1997. Sterling appreciates to $1.35 per £1, while short-dated gilt yields edge higher and equity markets close lower, reflecting a rebalancing of expectations for the remainder of the year. Division within the committee highlights differing assessments of the economic outlook Four members support holding rates at 4.25% due to concerns over slowing disinflation and the risk of inflation expectations embedding into wage dynamics. Four others favour a 0.25 percentage point cut, citing evidence of sustained underlying disinflation, while one member initially calls for a 0.50 percentage point cut before aligning with the quarter-point reduction in the final vote. The outcome underscores what Burghley Capital describes as a deliberate, step-by-step policy stance that avoids premature easing. Household impacts are uneven For borrowers on tracker mortgages, a typical outstanding balance of £140,000 (approximately $189,000) translates into monthly repayments falling by about £28.97 (around $39.11). However, 7.1 million of the UK's 8.4 million residential mortgages are fixed-rate, meaning most borrowers will not see immediate payment relief. Burghley Capital's analysis notes that the near-term boost to household spending is therefore likely to be modest. Inflation remains the key constraint on further easing Consumer price inflation reaches 3.6% year-on-year in June 2025, up from 3.4% in May. Food prices rise 4.5% year-on-year, the highest since February 2024, while services inflation stays elevated at 4.7%, reflecting persistent domestic cost pressures. Labour market conditions show early signs of cooling, with unemployment at 4.7% for the three months to May 2025 and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio slipping below its equilibrium level. Markets respond with a measured repricing of assets The pound strengthens 0.4% against the U.S. dollar to $1.35 and 0.6% against the euro. Two-year gilt yields increase by 6 basis points to 3.887%, reflecting reduced expectations for rapid easing. The FTSE 100 ends lower. According to Burghley Capital's analysis, these moves indicate that while investors see the Bank's decision as measured, they remain cautious about the prospect of further cuts in 2025. Current market consensus anticipates no further adjustments until early 2026 Burghley Capital projects the Bank Rate settling at approximately 3.75% in the first quarter of next year, conditional on continued disinflation and stable employment data. The firm's analysis also highlights a growing divergence between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, which has enacted eight rate cuts since June 2024, reducing deposit rates by around 50% from their peak. This divergence has potential currency and asset allocation implications for institutional investors. Economic growth indicators present a mixed picture UK GDP is forecast to expand by 1.25% in 2025, up from earlier 1% projections, but quarterly momentum slows sharply from 0.7% in Q1 to 0.1% in Q2. Corporate insolvencies rise 13% between the first and second quarters, while small business confidence remains in negative territory. Burghley Capital's analysis suggests that such conditions favour quality balance sheets, resilient cash flows, and prudent leverage strategies in both public and private markets. Conclusion Burghley Capital concludes that the Bank's cautious, data-dependent approach will remain the dominant feature of UK monetary policy into 2026. The firm notes that rate-sensitive assets, selective credit opportunities, and currency-aware strategies could benefit from this environment, provided investors maintain flexibility and a disciplined approach to capital allocation. About Burghley Capital Founded in 2017, Burghley Capital Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201731389D) is a Singapore-based global investment management firm specialising in long-only asset management strategies. The firm delivers institutional-grade research, tailored portfolio design, and advisory services to both institutional and private investors. By combining rigorous analytical methods with disciplined investment practices, Burghley Capital seeks to deliver consistent returns and long-term portfolio resilience. For more information, visit opens new tab or our resources page at opens new tab. Media Contact Martin ### SOURCE: Burghley Capital Copyright 2025 EZ Newswire See release on EZ Newswire
Reuters
36 minutes ago
- Reuters
Fed grappling with impact of tariffs as it ponders rate decisions, Goolsbee says
Aug 13 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank is grappling with understanding whether tariffs will push up inflation just temporarily or more persistently, which would inform its decision on when to cut interest rates. "As we go into the fall, these are going to be some live meetings and we're going to have to figure it out," Goolsbee told the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce in Springfield, Illinois. "The hardest thing that a central bank ever has to do is to try to get the timing right when there are moments of transition." Goolsbee said he is uneasy assuming tariffs will be just a one-time shock to inflation and wants to see more data including wholesale price data due out this week and broader inflation data next month before coming to a view on whether a rate cut is warranted. The Fed left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its meeting last month, a decision that drew dissents from Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman and Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Bowman and Waller wanted to cut rates to head off what they worried was incipient weakness in the labor market. Two days after the end of that policy meeting, the U.S. Labor Department revised its earlier estimates of job growth in May and June sharply downward and reported a smaller-than-expected job gain in July. President Donald Trump called the data rigged and fired the commissioner in charge of producing it. Even so, allies including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have seized on the recent jobs report to call for rate cuts that Trump has pushed hard for all year. Some Fed officials also feel the July jobs report bolstered the case for easing policy. Goolsbee cautioned against reading too much into slowing job growth since that may reflect the sharp drop in immigration. He said he puts more weight on data like the unemployment rate, which at 4.2% is historically low. "I think the state of the labor market is pretty strong, pretty solid," Goolsbee said. Data earlier this week showed consumer prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in July, a downshift from the 0.3% reported for the prior month. Goolsbee said he took note of the rise in services inflation, which is not directly related to tariffs, and would be concerned if upcoming data continued to show a broadening of price pressures.
Times
2 hours ago
- Times
Whatever happens to inflation, it's food prices that really bite
I've been guilty of an annoying habit over the summer, one that produces eye-rolling from others. I peer into a punnet of strawberries, count them, do the mental sum and then expostulate with something like '25p per berry!' Or, with added old-man grumpiness: 'Five shillings for a strawberry!' You might think this focus on the price of fruit as evidence for the rising cost of living is a bit weird, but you'd be wrong. We're all prone to it. Research by economists at the Bank of England found that of all spending categories, it is food items that are most likely to catch our eye and determine our view of the inflation rate more generally. Not only that, the research, published in May, found that rises in food prices in particular tend to exaggerate our view of future living costs: a 1 per cent rise in food costs increases our expectations of overall inflation in a year's time by 1.8 per cent, almost twice as much. Or in Bank-speak: 'Our results imply that the risk of household expectations contributing to persistent inflationary dynamics is greatest following large and inflationary shocks to, specifically, food prices.' Even energy bills and fuel prices aren't as potent, they found, in spite of accounting for a greater chunk of household spending. Those of us who thought the petrol price displayed at filling stations was the single most influential number in shaping the public mood about living costs are wrong. The phenomenon holds across all age groups, regions, income levels, job types and both genders, the researchers found. The only product or service category even more psychologically powerful than food was alcohol, especially for higher income and older households. Imbibers tended to be 'excessively sensitive to price changes': a 1 per cent increase in the price of their tipple produced a 4 per cent increase in their perception of the overall inflation rate. The researchers didn't say whether this was before or after consumption. Food, which only accounts for 11 per cent of average household spending, may be distorting our view of inflation more generally. So, for example, the very welcome £60 or 10 per cent fall in the average motor insurance premium to £562, announced on Wednesday by the Association of British Insurers, may carry less weight with us than the 10p increase in the cost of the chocolate bar we buy every day. This matters for two reasons. First, because present-day inflation expectations can exacerbate future price pressures in a self-feeding spiral. Firms raise prices when they expect their own input prices to rise. Employees push for pay rises which lead to firms putting up prices again. Second, because food prices in particular are surging right now. Annual food price inflation in June was 4.5 per cent. That compares to 3.6 per cent for the wider consumer prices index (CPI). Poor harvests have pushed up prices of coffee and cocoa beans while dry conditions at home have lifted beef and dairy prices. The problem is more pronounced in the UK than elsewhere. Food price inflation is 1.5 percentage points higher here than in the euro area. Different British tastes and therefore different weightings in the CPI basket may explain some of it, but two factors confined to the UK may have added to the effect. One is the rise in the minimum wage and in national insurance, which disproportionately affects the food industry, a low-wage sector. The other is the imminent new regime for packaging, which loads the cost of disposing of or recycling plastic, cardboard and glass on to the industry that produces it. The first EPR (extended producer responsibility) invoices will be sent out to food firms in October and some are already raising their prices in anticipation. UK food price inflation is therefore heading beyond 5 per cent in the next few months and rising to as high as 5.5 per cent by the year-end, according to Bank projections. This is not just an awkward statistic for monetary policy makers. The government will need very fancy footwork this autumn as it finds itself (probably) forced to raise taxes at a time when the price of that most essential of essentials is escalating and wages growth is slowing. (Note to all MPs: mug up on the price of a litre of milk or loaf of bread to avoid embarrassing interview ambushes this autumn.) The potency of food prices in influencing consumer thinking is a potential trap for the Bank. It is already losing the confidence of households. Inflation has been above its 2 per cent target in 46 of the past 60 months. In the latest 'Inflation Attitudes' survey, the average prediction of members of the public for inflation in five years is now 3.63 per cent, the highest since May 2019 and higher even than in 2022 when the actual inflation rate hit double digits. Bank of England credibility has been eroded and the UK is now 'an outlier' compared to Europe, according to Pantheon Economics. 'Something has changed — for the worse — in the way consumers make inflation forecasts,' warns Robert Wood, Pantheon's chief UK economist. Public faith in the Bank's determination to bring inflation back down to target is already wobbling. The coming pick-up in food price increases could sour that confidence further. Even if the wider CPI rate does start to come down, households may not feel it or believe it. Last week's cut in the base rate to 4 per cent could soon look premature. This may not be a Marie ('Let them eat cake') Antoinette moment. But the accelerating price of food is certain to rise up the agenda this autumn, in Westminster and the City.
