Playbook: Riders on the storm

Politico

4 days ago

Presented by
With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
On the Playbook Podcast this morning, Jack and POLITICO's senior Congress editor Mike DeBonis pick through the bones of the 'big, beautiful bill' and where it's headed now
Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, a little stunned to learn that as of this week, we're closer to 2050 than to the year 2000. Good grief.
BREAKING OVERNIGHT: On a bleak morning for fans of fearless journalism, CBS' owner Paramount has formally settled its lawsuit with Donald Trump after he sued over some (pretty standard) edits to a 2024 interview with opponent Kamala Harris. Under the terms of the deal, Paramount has agreed to hand over a whopping $16 million to Trump's presidential library and committed to releasing transcripts of future interviews with presidential candidates. The company has not apologized for its conduct.
As the NYT reports this morning … 'Many lawyers dismissed Mr. Trump's lawsuit as baseless and believed that CBS would ultimately prevail in court, in part because the network did not report anything factually inaccurate, and the First Amendment gives publishers wide leeway to determine how to present information. But Shari Redstone, the chair and controlling shareholder of Paramount, told her board that she favored exploring a settlement with Mr. Trump. Some executives at the company viewed the president's lawsuit as a potential hurdle to completing a multibillion-dollar sale of the company.' Trump must be loving every minute.
In today's Playbook …
— House members scramble back to D.C. for the final megabill showdown.
— Musk keeps his head down after almost going to war with Trump a second time.
— U.S. blocks key weapons exports to Ukraine … as Russia's bombardment continues.
DRIVING THE DAY
SHUT UP AND DRIVE: Members of the House are motoring back to D.C. this morning to vote on the 'big, beautiful bill' after thunderstorms canceled scores of flights into Reagan National. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) was planning a 14-hour overnight drive from Chicago in order to make today's crucial vote, telling constituents: 'We got some gas money, we got some snacks, and away we go.' A pajama-clad Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and Buc-ee's busting Rep. Russell Fry (R-S.C.) were both planning eight-hour overnight drives from South Carolina to get here in time. (And people complain our politicians don't work hard.)
Life is beautiful: The matter in hand is the imminent House vote on Trump's flagship legislation — the tax-cutting, Medicaid-slashing, border-boosting megabill that squeaked through the Senate yesterday lunchtime. The bill is expected to hit the floor of the House for a final vote later tonight. (Don't be surprised if we're all up late once again.) If the House agrees to the bill with no further changes, it's headed straight to Trump's desk in time to hit the July 4 deadline.
Mike drop: 'We're having weather delays getting everybody back right now,' Speaker Mike Johnson told Fox News last night. 'But assuming we have a full House, we'll get it through the Rules Committee in the morning, we'll move that forward to the floor and hopefully we're voting on this by [Wednesday] or Thursday at latest, depending on the weather and delays and all the rest — that's the wildfire that we can't control.'
Numbers game: Johnson can only afford a small handful of rebel votes — and there are certainly enough ominous noises coming out of GOP circles to suggest he may have a problem. In particular, deficit hawks are unhappy at the way the price tag for this already-expensive bill ballooned even higher in the Senate. But will there be enough actual GOP holdouts to stop it sailing through?
Yeah nah: Given the way this Congress has behaved since Jan. 20, it seems far-fetched to imagine the Republican Party actually going ahead and blocking Trump's flagship piece of legislation — especially when the president seems relatively uninterested in the actual detailed content of the bill. But if you do fancy whiling away the day playing will-they-won't-they games, then it's the GOP deficit hawks you'll want to be monitoring — people like Reps. Ralph Norman (S.C.), Chip Roy (Texas), Andy Harris (Md.), Marlin Stutzman (Ind.) and Andy Ogles (Tenn.), who have all been mouthing off about the Senate's tweaks.
In theory, there are also plenty of 'Medicaid moderates' — like California Rep. David Valadao — who could take a stand against the deeper cuts pushed through by the Senate, although frankly, I wouldn't hold my breath. SALT caucus holdout Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) already sounds like he's coming around.
How the bill changed: 'Senate Republicans took the sprawling Republican megabill the House sent them and sharpened it further, making the heart of Trump's legislative agenda more politically explosive,' my POLITICO colleagues Benjamin Guggenheim and Jordain Carney write in their must-read analysis. 'GOP senators made steeper cuts to Medicaid, hastened cuts to wind and solar energy tax credits and also managed to add hundreds of billions of dollars more to the deficit compared to the House plan.' It's a far cry from the Senate's usual role, they note, which is to temper the excesses of the House.
Daddy time: This is normally the point in the process when the president himself wades in, and it's striking that there's nothing on Trump's official schedule today. That presumably means he'll be spending the day either visiting the Hill, entertaining Republicans from the Hill … or ringing them one-by-one to bully, praise and cajole this legislation over the line. As ever, Truth Social will be your stream-of-conscious guide to what's on the president's mind.
Looking further ahead: As Playbook has been telling you for weeks, the battle that really is going to matter over the BBB is one of messaging — as both parties believe they have a strong story to tell headed into 2026. The Dems think a message of 'they cut your Medicaid to fund tax cuts for the wealthy' is a genuine vote-winner — but Republicans have rival framing which, if people buy it, also proves popular with the general public.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: To that end, my Playbook colleague Dasha Burns writes in with a peek at new polling from Tony Fabrizio (Trump's go-to pollster) and co. The survey delves into the messages related to the bill's key provisions that get the most positive response from likely 2026 voters in four critical Senate battlegrounds: Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina. The poll was commissioned by One Nation, a 501(c)(4) organization aligned with Majority Leader John Thune.
Notably, the poll refers to the legislation as the 'Working Families Tax Cuts (WFTC)' — which is new (if optimistic) branding coming straight from the White House and its outside allies. The poll found respondents came back 62 percent favorable vs. 12 percent unfavorable when the legislation was framed in this way. Measures such as the Child Tax Credit increase, plus no taxes on tips and overtime, were also overwhelmingly popular.
On the most controversial aspect of the bill, Medicaid cuts, the survey found two-thirds of voters (66 percent) do agree there is waste, fraud and abuse in Medicaid that must be addressed. And an even larger majority (72 percent) agree that able-bodied adults should demonstrate they are looking for a job or are employed to receive Medicaid benefits.
All of which gives a pretty good indication of how Republicans are likely to message the bill as we head into 2026. Whether swing voters in battleground districts are prepared to buy it remains to be seen.
And as for 2028 … It was striking to see several of the Dems' potential presidential hopefuls— California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Pete Buttigieg — all looking to pin the bill's passage on VP JD Vance, who cast the tie-breaking vote and who many expect to be the GOP presidential contender next time round. POLITICO's Cheyanne Daniels has more on that.
In the meantime: Johnson told Fox there will be more reconciliation bills ahead of the midterms. 'You can do a reconciliation budget for each fiscal year,' he said. 'So, the plan is to do one in the fall for the FY '26 budget year, and then we can also squeeze in a third one for FY '27 before this Congress is up.' Best start stocking up on cans of Celsius now.
ELON'S BACK
MUSK WATCH: After a whirlwind 24 hours railing against the Republican megabill, Elon Musk said he would 'refrain for now' from escalating his rebooted row with Trump. And sure enough, beyond a retweet or two of Chip Roy, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), some Starlink posts and even some praise for Trump, the world's richest man has been pretty quiet.
It's not hard to see why: The more Musk delves into Washington, the more Tesla suffers for it. The car company's stocks dropped more than 5 percent after Musk and Trump started beefing again this week, WSJ's Jack Pitcher reports. And for all you visual learners, Reuters' Nandita Bose and colleagues have a handy chart showing just how much Tesla's market value has bobbed up and down during Musk's evolution.
The policy behind the posts: The Senate's megabill that passed yesterday whacks a $7,500 tax credit for households buying electric vehicles, and a $4,000 credit for those who buy a used EV, CNBC's Greg Iacurci writes. Trump argued yesterday that's a big problem for Musk — though Musk has repeatedly said his objections to the megabill are not related to the EV credits.
The view from 1600 Penn: 'No one really cares what [Musk] says anymore,' a senior White House official anonymously told CNN's Kristen Holmes. Let's just see if that line holds — and if Musk keeps his powder dry as the megabill moves through the House again.
WAR AND PEACE
PROMISES BROKEN: The Pentagon stopped shipments of air defense missiles and other precision munitions to bolster the war effort in Ukraine, POLITICO's Paul McLeary, Jack Detsch and Joe Gould scooped last night. The decision came down from Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's policy chief, after a review sparked concerns that the military's weapons stockpiles are running low.
The decision to withhold military aid allocated during the Biden era was finalized in early June, our colleagues write, but it's going into place now as Ukraine fights back against some of Russia's biggest bombings on the country since the war started. It's been just two days since Russia's latest devastating overnight aerial attack.
How it's playing: Ukraine's biggest allies in Congress denounced the decision, calling out the 180-degree change from Trump's comments last week. 'If this reporting is true, then Mr. Colby … is taking action that will surely result in the imminent death of many Ukrainian military and civilians,' said Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio). Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) called Colby and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth 'rogue actors,' Joe reports.
The White House says: 'This decision was made to put America's interests first following a DOD review of our nation's military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,' White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said. 'The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned — just ask Iran.'
BACK TO THE FORGOTTEN WARS: Israel has agreed to conditions for a potential 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, Trump announced on Truth Social last night, 'during which time we will work with all parties to end the War.' Big grain of salt: Hamas has not accepted these conditions or the proposal yet. But Trump is once again putting the screws on them to come to the negotiating table. 'I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,' Trump wrote. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff met with Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer yesterday to discuss the proposal, while Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu will visit the White House on Monday.
MEANWHILE IN THE WEST WING: Our colleague and foreign affairs correspondent Nahal Toosi's new column this morning chronicles the chaos at the National Security Council since Secretary of State Marco Rubio took over — with a shrinking staff, less meetings and worries that small conflicts will balloon into bigger problems as top-level officials are iced out. 'It's 'Game of Thrones' politics over there,' one person told Nahal.
BEST OF THE REST
SCHOOL TIES: The University of Pennsylvania is revoking the winning records of its transgender athletes, in an agreement announced yesterday with the Department of Education, WSJ's Sara Randazzo reports. The university — whose federal funding the Trump administration froze earlier this year over alleged Title IX violations — will strip former student athlete Lia Thomas' three school records.
WHAT STENY HOYER IS READING: The FBI is relocating its headquarters to the Ronald Reagan Building complex, specifically into the former offices of USAID, rather than a planned move to Maryland, the agency announced yesterday. The choice is sure to make Trump happy as he's been wanting to keep the FBI in the district, POLITICO's Aaron Pellish writes, even as it angers lawmakers from Maryland, where a now-scrapped plan had the agency set to move.
In related news, get a load of this: 'FBI supervisor hired prostitutes while on assignment, watchdog says,' by WaPo's Derek Hawkins
THE NEW DOJ: Former FBI agent Jared Wise, who was charged 'with encouraging the mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to kill police officers,' is now an adviser for Ed Martin on Trump's 'Weaponization Working Group' at the Justice Department, NYT's Alan Feuer and Adam Goldman report. 'His selection meant that a man who had urged violence against police officers was now responsible for the department's official effort to exact revenge against those who had tried to hold the rioters accountable.'
POLITICO's Ankush Khardori pens his latest Rule of Law column: ''I Believe His Account 100 Percent': Former Colleagues Vouch for DOJ Whistleblower'
JUDICIARY SQUARE: A federal judge last night blocked the Trump administration's bid to strip the temporary protected status of 500,000 Haitian immigrants, POLITICO's Hassan Ali Kanu reports. … Pro-Palestinian Georgetown researcher Badar Khan Suri can remain free while he challenges his deportation order, an appeals court ruled yesterday per Reuters' Kanishka Singh. … A federal judge ruled mass layoffs at HHS were likely illegal and granted a preliminary injunction halting the firings, AP reports.
T-MINUS ONE WEEK: Trump said he's sticking by his self-imposed July 9 deadline for trade deals with some of the biggest trading partners, even as he's calling out Japan for not taking in more rice exports, Bloomberg's Jennifer Dlouhy and Akayla Gardner write. 'I'm not sure we're going to make a deal. I doubt it with Japan, they're very tough,' Trump said while traveling on Air Force One yesterday. 'You have to understand, they're very spoiled.'
ALL EYES ON THE TAR HEELS: Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who chairs the NRCC, is opting out of a bid for the North Carolina Senate seat set to be vacated by Thom Tillis. RNC Chair Michael Whatley also has no (current) plans to run, and Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.) is throwing his support behind none other than Lara Trump, ABC's Brittany Shepherd and colleagues report. Also encouraging her to run is the president himself, telling reporters on Air Force One that his daughter-in-law 'would really be great.'
IMMIGRATION FILES: Trump reassigned 150 National Guard troops to go back to fighting California's wildfires in the first rolling back of enforcement since the LA riots last month, NYT's Shawn Hubler and Laurel Rosenhall report. It comes a day after the DOJ announced a lawsuit against the city over its sanctuary policies, which Mayor Karen Bass blasted as an 'all-out assault on Los Angeles,' per the LA Times' David Zahniser and colleagues.
Meanwhile, at 'Alligator Alcatraz': The rollout of the facility, preempted by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, ruffled some feathers at DHS. 'DeSantis did a live tour of the facility Friday on 'Fox and Friends,' which caught the Trump administration off-guard,' NBC's Matt Dixon reports. 'Noem and top adviser Corey Lewandowski supported the facility but wanted the opening Tuesday to be the formal public rollout.' A GOP operative 'said Noem's staff asked DeSantis not to do the Fox News tour.' And Lewandowski reportedly 'lost his s---' when it went ahead.
INSIDE THE OVAL: 'Fox News, MAGA hats and cookies: Inside Trump's West Wing,' by NBC's Peter Nicholas and colleagues: 'Trump affectionately refers to the Oval Office as 'Grand Central Terminal' because of all the comings and goings … Trump likes to see whom he wants and call whom he chooses, and in the new term, he presides over a freewheeling West Wing that mirrors the man, current and former aides say.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
Glenn Youngkin will be the guest speaker at the South Carolina Republican Party's Silver Elephant Gala this August, which is sure to increase 2028 chatter.
Brent Efron, an EPA employee, went on what he thought was a bad date — until a video of him talking about throwing proverbial 'gold bars' ended up recorded on the conservative Project Veritas website. Since then, he has been 'publicly shamed by Elon Musk, obscenely berated by anonymous callers and hauled into an interview with the F.B.I.'
SPOTTED: Kash Patel dining at Oyamel yesterday evening.
IN MEMORIAM — 'Richard A. Boucher, Veteran State Department Spokesman, Dies at 73,' by NYT's Trip Gabriel: 'Mr. Boucher served longer than anyone else as a State Department spokesman, working for six secretaries of state, from George H.W. Bush's administration to George W. Bush's, explaining, distilling and defending the views of Republican and Democratic presidents in a noncombative tone … For nearly two decades after Mr. Boucher stepped away from the State Department podium, his guidelines for public affairs officers, 'Richard Boucher's Words of Wisdom,' remained posted in the office.'
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — 'D.C. is hiking Capital Bikeshare prices. Some will pay triple,' by WaPo's Rachel Weiner: 'Starting in August, it will cost for some people three times as much per minute to ride a regular Capital Bikeshare bike and more than twice as much for an electric bike.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Scott Jennings is launching a new daily radio show, 'The Scott Jennings Show,' with Salem Media Group. The show kicks off on July 14 and will air weekdays from 2-3 p.m.
— Theo Wold is joining The Heritage Foundation as a visiting fellow for law and technology in the Center for Technology and the Human Person. He is a senior counselor at Palantir and previously was Idaho's solicitor general and U.S. assistant attorney general.
TRANSITIONS — Sean Savett is now associate director of comms at the Open Society Foundations, leading comms for the U.S. and the Americas. He previously was spokesperson for the NSC in the Biden White House. … Molly Tuttle is now director of workforce development at the American Council of Engineering Companies. She previously was associate VP for strategic comms at AECOM. … Lisa Bercu is joining the National Consumers League as senior director of health policy. She previously was senior adviser to the deputy FDA commissioner for policy, legislation and international affairs.
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Anna Epstein, a director at FGS Global, and Aaron Steeg, an associate at Barrasso Usdin Kupperman Freeman & Sarver, on June 17 welcomed Alice Madeline Steeg, who is named for two of her late grandmothers. Pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Mike Collins (R-Ga.), Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) and Randy Weber (R-Texas) … Billy Constangy … NBC's Tom Llamas … Jonathan Capehart … Eric Fanning of the Aerospace Industries Association … Collin Davenport … Brad Todd of On Message … Reed Howard … Scott McGee of Kelley Drye … Sam Nitz … Derek Gianino of Wells Fargo … Matthew Dybwad … Jenny Beth Martin of Tea Party Patriots … Courtney Geduldig … Snap's Gina Woodworth … Arkadi Gerney … former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu … Jessica DeLoach … former Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) … Luci Baines Johnson … POLITICO's Jessie Niewold, Natasha Bernard and Zainab Khan … Jeremy Garlington (57) … Abbey Rogers of DDC Public Affairs … Setota Hailemariam … Santiago Rivera of New Heights Communications … Brooke Oberwetter
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