UAE: Is the worst of summer really over? Weather experts predict what's next

Khaleej Times

a day ago

August 10 marked the end of the Al Mirzam period in the UAE, a seasonal phase characterised by hot, dry winds and intense heat, and traditionally, the date has been viewed as a sign that the worst of summer might soon be over.
However, climatologists affirm that the dusty conditions and light to moderate winds are a temporary relief, with residents only having a hint of respite from shifting winds and occasional cloudy spells.
So, when will residents start feeling the highly anticipated cool breezes?
Speaking to Khaleej Times on Monday, Dr Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM), explained that temperatures will begin to show subtle changes starting next month.
'From September 1, nighttime temperatures will start decreasing,' he said. 'We are currently under the influence of southerly winds in the mornings, associated with land breezes that keep temperatures lower until noon. As the day progresses, winds slow down and shift to a north-westerly flow, which affects how hot it feels.'
According to Habib, this daily wind pattern plays a direct role in temperature fluctuations.
Morning (Land Breeze) – Cooler air moves from the land toward the sea, offering some relief.
Afternoon (Sea Breeze) – Warmer air flows inland from the sea, making conditions hotter.
'If you have convective clouds—especially during the daytime and more so in the eastern part of the UAE—you'll often get downdrafts. These can bring fresh, sometimes strong winds, which may cause dusty conditions. In general, such winds are linked to convective clouds,' added Habib.
Lately, it's been hot, though the breeze has made it feel slightly less intense, he emphasised. 'Starting Tuesday, we'll see the influence of northwesterly winds, which will slightly lower temperatures along the coast, though they'll still hover around 44–45°C. After two to three days—especially by Friday—both southwesterly and northwesterly winds will affect the country, pushing temperatures up again.
'Over the next few days, inland areas can expect highs of 44–47°C, while coastal areas will range between 39°C and 44°C," added Habib.
No immediate drop in temperatures
Cloud activity can also influence how the weather feels, reiterated Khadijah Hasan Ahmed, Operations Manager at the Dubai Astronomy Group. She pointed out that the date does not align with any significant astronomical or meteorological event that would cause an immediate drop in temperatures.
'From an astronomical standpoint, August 11 doesn't align with events like a solstice or equinox,' she explained. 'Meteorologically, August remains the hottest month in the UAE, with average highs around 41°C and lows around 31°C. This means it is still peak summer.'
Untying camels
The name Marhiyat al-Qala'id translates to 'loosening of the necklaces', a reference to camels being untied at night as temperatures became slightly more bearable in the desert. Khadijah noted that this seasonal period was a useful guide for communities in the Arabian Peninsula, particularly before the availability of modern weather forecasting.
Another key marker is the rising of the star Suhail (Canopus), which occurs around August 24–25 in the UAE. Traditionally, its appearance signalled the approach of seasonal change. While the stars themselves do not cause the weather shift, their timing coincides with gradual atmospheric changes such as slight drops in nighttime humidity and marginal cooling in the desert after the intense heat of July and early August.
'The real and noticeable drop in temperatures usually happens from late September into October, when daytime highs fall into the mid-30s,' Khadijah said. 'In Dubai, the hot season typically lasts from mid-May to late September, with the cooler season starting in early December.'
She added that climate change has altered the reliability of such traditional markers. 'Temperatures have risen by about 2.7°C in parts of the UAE since the 1970s, and weather patterns are less predictable. While the cultural significance of these star seasons remains, they no longer serve as precise indicators for the end of summer.'