Here are the top House Democrats at risk from GOP redistricting
Texas Republicans' proposed redraw, a President Trump-backed plan that could net the party five more House seats, has led to other red states moving forward with their own redistricting plans.
Florida, Indiana and Missouri are among the Republican-led states now weighing whether to redo their congressional maps — putting a number of Democratic incumbents at risk.
Here are the House Democrats most likely to be targeted across the country:
Greg Casar, Texas 35th
Republicans already control 25 of the 38 congressional seats in Texas, but the proposed changes could give them a 30-8 edge by slashing Democratic-controlled seats in Houston, Dallas and Austin-San Antonio.
One of the biggest proposed changes affects Rep. Greg Casar's (D-Texas) 35th Congressional District, which went to former Vice President Harris by 33 points in November. The map would create a new +10 Trump district outside of San Antonio, according to analysis from Cook Political Report.
Casar has called the would-be destruction of his district 'illegal voter suppression of Black and Latino Central Texans.'
Lloyd Doggett, Texas 37th
The Austin base of Casar's current district would be pushed into the 37th Congressional District, now held by Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas).
The changes could set up a potential primary matchup between Casar and Doggett, who has accused Trump of 'taking a hatchet to chop up Austin and our state with the sole objective of maintaining his one-man rule.'
Julie Johnson, Texas 32nd
The Texas plan would reshape the 32nd Congressional District, currently based in Dallas and held by Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas). By stretching the district into East Texas, it would become a +18 Trump seat, according to the Cook Political Report.
Johnson has been among the voices heralding Texas state House Democrats for fleeing the state to break quorum and stall 'a rigged map.'
Marc Veasey, Texas 33rd
Rep. Marc Veasey's would see his 33rd Congressional District likely remain blue, but the longtime lawmaker would probably lose his hometown and political base in the redrawing.
This could create a primary between Veasey and Johnson as the latter's seat is reshaped, analysis from the Texas Tribune suggests, if they both decide to try and stay in the House.
Henry Cuellar, Texas 28th
Rep. Henry Cuellar's (D-Texas) seat in Texas's 28th Congressional District would shift rightward, from a +7 Trump district to a +10 post.
The Cook Political Report says that Cuellar could 'conceivably survive' the midterms, though he's currently grappling with an ongoing criminal casethat could complicate any reelection prospects. Cuellar and his wife were indicted by a federal grand jury in Houston last year on charges of participating in a bribery scheme.
Vicente Gonzalez, Texas 34th
Like Cuellar, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) would see his 34th Congressional District seat get even redder, according to the Cook Political Report.
Gonzalez won reelection by just three points last year, so even a slight move toward the right could imperil reelection prospects. In a statement after the map's release, however, Gonzalez pointed to Trump's approval rating as he promised 'we will win again.'
Al Green, Texas 9th
Rep. Al Green's (D) seat in Texas's 9th Congressional District would merge with the empty blue seat vacated by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D), yielding a more conservative 9th district in the suburbs of east Houston.
Al Green 'almost certainly wouldn't run' in the new 9th, the Cook Political Report forecasts, but he could run for the vacant 18th seat. Meanwhile, a special election is ongoing to fill the vacancy for Turner's former seat.
Marcy Kaptur, Ohio 9th
Ohio is the one state that's required to redistrict this year, after its 2022 maps failed to receive bipartisan support. Republicans boast a 10-5 majority in the current congressional delegation, and redistricting could mean a handful of Democrats see their districts get tougher.
Rep. Mary Kaptur (D) in Ohio's 9th Congressional District is considered among the most vulnerable after winning a highly competitive race in 2024. Her district went to Trump by roughly 7 points last year, according to The Downballot.
Emilia Sykes, Ohio 13th
Like Kaptur, Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) in Ohio's 13th Congressional District won a tight race in 2024 and has been targeted by the GOP as a potential pickup opportunity. The district was effectively tied between Trump and Harris in November.
'It's no surprise that special interests in Washington and Columbus want to ignore the voters and rig the game,' Sykes campaign spokesman Justin Barasky told The Hill last month.
Rep. Greg Landsman (D) in the 1st Congressional District around Cincinnati could also be impacted, according to the Columbus Dispatch, though anti-gerrymandering rules approved by voters in 2018 prevents redistricting from breaking up the city.
Emanuel Cleaver, Missouri 5th
Missouri's Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe has indicated he'll look at the possibility of redistricting in the state, where Republicans control six of eight districts.
The Kansas City Star reported last month that Trump's political team had expressed interest in trying to gain another Show Me State seat, which would likely be Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver's 5th Congressional District in Kansas City.
Cleaver, who has been in the seat for two decades, won reelection with 60 percent of the vote last fall, after line changes in 2022. He told St. Louis Public Radio that the push for mid-decade redistricting is 'very dangerous.'
Frank Mrvan, Indiana 1st
Republicans appear to be eyeing Indiana, where Democrats hold just two House seats, as another opening.
Amid redistricting chatter, Vice President Vance met on Thursday with Gov. Mike Braun (R), who would need to call a special session of the state General Assembly to initiate redrawing.
If Indiana were to redistrict, changes would likely squeeze the 1st Congressional District in the northwest, where Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) has already been named as a national GOP target for 2026.
'It is no surprise that some believe redistricting is the only option to cling to power when they know the American people are rejecting the damage done by the House Republican Majority,' Mrvan said in a statement.
A redraw could also affect Mrvan's fellow Democrat, Rep. Andre Carson (D-Ind.), though the 7th Congressional District around Indianapolis may be somewhat safer, since breaking up blue voters in the area could make other Republican House districts more vulnerable.
Republicans hold the other seven House seats in Indiana.
Florida Democrats
Florida's state House Speaker this week announced he'll form a redistricting committee after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signaled the Sunshine State could follow Texas's lead.
There are just 8 House Democrats to 20 Republicans in Florida, and multiple blue seats could be endangered if a redraw moves forward.
Republicans are hoping to gain at least three seats in the Sunshine State, Punchbowl News reported this week.
One of the potential South Florida targets is Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who won reelection in November by five points in a district that went to Harris by just two points. Fellow South Florida Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Lois Frankel could also be vulnerable, along with South Florida. Rep. Kathy Castor (D) in the Tampa area and Rep. Darren Soto (D) outside of Orlando.
All five of these Democrats won their 2024 races with less than 60 percent of the vote. Moskowitz and Soto are already on the GOP campaign arm's target list.
'It's called corruption when the only reason to redraw the maps is to hold onto power cause y'all are going to lose in '26,' Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said on X.
Other lawmakers
Amid the Texas drama, chatter is percolating about redistricting possibilities in still more states.
An analysis from Sabato's Crystal Ball forecasts there could be room for changes in North Carolina, where a new 2024 map netted the GOP three new seats, and in Kansas, which has just one blue seat — though it's all but guaranteed that Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) wouldn't call a special session to initiate talks.
Republican Rep. Ralph Norman in South Carolina has suggested a redraw that could target longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn, the state's lone Democratic congressman, but the move is seen as unlikely given the already favorable 6-1 delegation split.
With the exception of Ohio, it remains unclear which states will ultimately go through with redistricting, as Texas Democrats' dramatic quorum break stalls progress even in the Lone Star State.
And even for those who do, it's not a guarantee that change could clear in time take effect before next fall's high-stakes midterms.
Meanwhile, Democrats are looking to counter would-be GOP gains by weighing redistricting in blue strongholds, including California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has said he's moving forward with a plan to put redistricting before voters this fall, which would be triggered by what happens in Texas.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Solve the daily Crossword
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Pritzker, Klobuchar, Gallego flock to NH: Are they considering a run for president 2028?
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona, is set to visit New Hampshire Aug. 22, becoming the latest high-profile politician to fuel 2028 presidential race speculation by making a stop in the Granite State. "I'll be on the ground in New Hampshire... taking on the GOP's billionaire agenda and standing up for working families," Gallego, who was elected to the Senate last fall, said in a July 29 post on X. He follows Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who in April caught attention for delivering a searing speech in New Hampshire aimed at 'do-nothing' Democrats, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., who in July campaigned for U.S. Senate candidate Chris Pappas. (Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., also visited New Hampshire in July, but then announced her run for South Carolina governor.) They join about a dozen Democratic politicians who have already begun to make moves seemingly towards a 2028 run. Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg spoke about existential questions facing Democrats and the country at a veterans-focused forum in Iowa in May, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear, and Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., have all trekked through South Carolina. Gallego's New Hampshire visit comes after he toured the Iowa State Fairgrounds on Aug. 8. He has also already visited states like Pennsylvania and Alaska. Gallego and other hopefuls are still being cagey about their intentions. (Gallego said it was "too early" to talk about 2028 in Iowa.) But they are 'testing the waters,' said Andy Smith, the Director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 'And that doesn't mean the Atlantic,' said Smith. 'They're kind of brushing up their reasons to why they should be president, or should consider a run for president, and then trying those arguments out against people here in the state to go out and win an election.' Smith said that candidates often start visiting New Hampshire up to six years before the election year they're aiming for. Rather than trying to win votes, however, Smith said that the politicians are coming to the state to win the support of the people in the state that run campaigns. In New Hampshire, that would be people like Ray Buckley, the Chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. 'They're more likely not to try to make their events open to the public widely, because, frankly, they're not pros at this yet,' Smith said. 'This is also a chance for candidates to come up here and try out their message with some small groups of voters and work on the stuff to make it better.' According to WMUR, Gallego is expected to make a Politics & Eggs address to the New England Council, join a town hall with U.S. Rep. Maggie Goodlander and stop at a fundraiser for U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, who is running for U.S. Senate. New Hampshire should expect to see many more candidates in the months to come, Smith said. An open primary in 2028, on both sides The shadow campaign is leading up to a race that some political observers believe will be among the Democratic party's most consequential presidential primaries in decades. It comes at a time when the 'party's brand is in the toilet,' Matthew Dallek, a historian and professor of political management at George Washington University, told USA TODAY. The party is facing abysmal approval ratings, and the only way to improve it, said Dallek, is through the next presidential nominee. "The stakes, in that sense, are higher,' Dallek said. 'It's not just the presidency. It's not just the nomination. There's a sense among Democrats that they need to do this, and there's a big debate." With no real front runner on either side, Smith expects many Democratic and Republican candidates to join the fray. It will be a far cry from the 2024 race, when former President Joe Biden, former Vice President Kamala Harris and President Donald Trump froze out most Democratic and Republican candidates. While some have said that Vice President JD Vance appears to be the heir apparent to Trump on the Republican side, Smith cautions that line of thinking. He pointed to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was doing well in the 2024 polls early on but whose message didn't resonate with New Hampshire voters. 'You got to try yourself out on the road and see what voters actually think of you too, and also what the politicos, the people that have run campaigns, tell you whether or not you got a chance or not,' Smith said. 'Pretty evident when somebody comes up and tries to run campaign that may work for them in a different state or in a different environment, they come up to New Hampshire and try to use the same language that just crashes and burns.' Will NH be first in the nation again? Smith thinks it's likely that New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary status will be returned to the state in 2028. In 2024, the Democratic National Committee announced that South Carolina would be the first state to vote instead of New Hampshire to have a more diverse state lead the way. However, New Hampshire refused to break tradition and held an unsanctioned primary (before South Carolina's primary) where President Joe Biden's name was absent from the ballot. But through a write-in effort led by Democrats in the state, Biden won anyways, garnering almost 64% of the vote. Smith said that Biden dropping out of the race later in the year gives New Hampshire Democrats a case to argue that if Biden had run in a real primary in New Hampshire like usual, there may have been a different outcome. Contributing: Phillip M. Bailey This article originally appeared on Portsmouth Herald: Presidential hopefuls flock to NH: Are they eyeing a 2028 run?
Newsweek
8 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Signing Bonuses, Loan Forgiveness and More: Americans Flock to Join ICE
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Some 100,000 people have already applied to join the Trump administration's immigration enforcement push, after a huge boost in funding made room for thousands of new roles, even as the agency reportedly struggles with wading through the crush of new applicants to find those both qualified and willing to live in parts of the country where ICE intends to step up enforcement. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said Tuesday that it had seen a rapid increase in interest in roles at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) since its recruitment campaign began in July, but some experts have raised concerns around vetting and training. Why It Matters Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem has promised to deliver on President Donald Trump's plan to deport millions of illegal immigrants over the next four years, with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act providing billions in extra funding to ICE, including for recruitment of 10,000 new agents. Opponents have warned that ICE is already overstepping its role, leading to mistaken or unnecessary arrests of undocumented immigrants and U.S. citizens. Federal agents patrol the halls of immigration court at the Jacob K. Javitz Federal Building on August 05, 2025 in New York City. Federal agents patrol the halls of immigration court at the Jacob K. Javitz Federal Building on August 05, 2025 in New York To Know ICE began its recruitment push shortly after Trump signed the $45 billion tax and spending bill into law, which sends $75 billion to ICE over four years, $30 billion of which is specifically earmarked for hiring. The agency is offering signing bonuses up to $50,000, student loan payments, tuition reimbursement and starting salaries that can approach $90,000. Those incentives appear to have worked, along with the removal of age caps that followed feedback from supporters on social media, who said they would join up if they had not aged out. But whether the flood of applicants are qualified for the jobs ICE is hiring for is another question. Time reported Tuesday that DHS was struggling to find people who can meet even the relatively minimal qualifications for entry-level enforcement roles. Officials were also said to be having trouble finding enough applicants who live in areas where agents are most needed, such as in Democrat-majority sanctuary cities. Despite the apparent enthusiasm, the Trump administration has also asked former ICE and border agents who retired over the past few years to return to work if they are willing, likely because they would need minimal training and be ready to work sooner. The Trump administration has said that thousands of additional agents are needed to deliver on its promise of mass deportations, along with increasing detention capacity from around 47,000 beds to around 100,000. ICE is also struggling with its current staffing and resources to meet the White House's lofty goal of 3,000 immigrant arrests per day. During the surge in new immigrant arrivals during the Biden administration, both ICE and its counterpart U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) were stretched thin, with DHS deploying agents from elsewhere in the interior to help at the border. Now that the number of new arrivals at the border has slowed to a trickle, removal efforts are focused far more within the U.S. The last big push for immigration enforcement recruitment came during former President Goerge W. Bush's administration when 8,000 new Border Patrol agents were hired between 2006 and 2009, per the American Immigration Council (AIC), while the number of ICE agents also rapidly grew after the agency was formed in 2003. During that same period, corruption allegations rose. Between 2007 and 2012, the number of employees arrested for misconduct spiked 44 percent, AIC found. Some were allegedly linked to cartels and criminal gangs which had looked to infiltrate CBP and ICE. Federal agents block people protesting an ICE immigration raid at a nearby licensed cannabis farm on July 10, 2025 near Camarillo, California. Federal agents block people protesting an ICE immigration raid at a nearby licensed cannabis farm on July 10, 2025 near Camarillo, California. Getty Images While changes have been made to recruitment and anti-corruption measures in the years since, the sharp inrease in immigration enforcement since January 2025 has raised concerns among immigration advocates and civil rights attorneys. Agents have consistently been seen wearing face coverings and have faced allegations of excessive force. DHS has repeatedly denounced these concerns, saying its officers have faced a rapid rise in assaults from members of the public. The Trump administration told Newsweek that all ICE recruits are required to go through medical screening, drug screening and complete a physical fitness test. What People Are Saying Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, told Newsweek: "While ICE touts significant application numbers, many questions remain about whether those applications will result in job offers. There are also concerns about candidate quality at a time when the agency is waiving normal recruitment rules. "During a previous hiring binge at DHS under the Bush administration, the Border Patrol also relaxed standards to hire nearly 10,000 new agents in four years, leading to multiple cartel double agents being hired due to reduced vetting." Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, in a statement shared with Newsweek: "In the wake of the Biden administration's failed immigration policies, your country needs dedicated men and women of ICE to get the worst of the worst criminals out of our country. This is a defining moment in our nation's history. Your skills, your experience, and your courage have never been more essential. Together, we must defend the homeland." What's Next With billions in new funding now pouring in, ICE has stepped up its visibility at job fairs, college campuses and other recruiting events. The agency has also embarked on a social-media-driven hiring strategy that leans heavily on American nostalgia and wartime propaganda.
Axios
8 minutes ago
- Axios
How Trump is making pot a MAGA issue
President Trump is opening the door to reclassifying marijuana, potentially allowing the GOP to claim another health issue that's long been associated with Democrats. Why it matters: The administration has already flipped the political script when it comes to banning food dyes, calling for an end to animal lab testing and embracing psychedelics for mental health. Rescheduling marijuana could be a big step toward establishing an interstate cannabis trade — and turning a policy long sought by congressional Democrats and promoted by the Biden administration into reality. Driving the news: Trump brought up the subject during a recent event with donors at his Bedminster, New Jersey, country club after marijuana companies contributed millions of dollars to his political organizations, the Wall Street Journal first reported. While falling short of legalization, designating pot to have medical value and less dangerous than its Schedule I designation would be a major jolt to cannabis companies that run on thin margins, per Axios' Dan Primack. It would allow them to deduct business expenses on their taxes and also reduce restrictions on cannabis research. The industry has mounted"a very powerful PR effort," Kevin Sabet, founder of Smart Approaches to Marijuana who served in the White House Office of Drug Control Policy under three administrations, told Axios. "They've spent hundreds of millions of dollars in total to influence the president from Florida onward, whether it's inauguration, whether it's million-dollar-plate fundraisers in New Jersey. They are going all out because they want this tax break." Catch up quick: Polling from the Pew Research Center and others have shown increasing support for marijuana legalization across the political spectrum, with 88% favoring medical or recreational use. "Cannabis has become a less partisan [issue] over time, and this has been accelerated by the proliferation of intoxicating hemp products," Beau Kilmer, co-director of the RAND Drug Policy Research Center, told Axios. "Heck, I was just in Indiana where someone could buy THC drinks in grocery stores and bars — I don't even see that here in California." While much of Trump's orbit has been more circumspect about making such a change, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a notable exception, Sabet said. Kennedy supported legalization of marijuana during his presidential campaign and said it could open up more research into risks and benefits, although he has also warned about potential "catastrophic impacts" on users. There's still a big difference between rescheduling a drug and federal legalization, which demonstrates the political winds of change are moving slowly. Multiple state ballot initiatives seeking to legalize recreational pot have failed over the last several years. Trump, like Biden, is a teetotaler, and neither has expressed great enthusiasm for legalization over the years, said Jonathan Caulkins, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University. "The way to think about it is some people wanted Biden to legalize. Biden didn't want to do that, so he said, 'Well, I'll suggest rescheduling, which will make some people think that we've made a big change, but it isn't really,'" Caulkins said. Friction point: The rescheduling of marijuana means the government would be officially recognizing its medicinal uses. That's difficult when the quality and consistency of the botanical version of the drug isn't like more conventional pharmaceuticals, Caulkins said. The move also would transfer cannabis to the purview of the Food and Drug Administration, which could create headaches for the agency. The FDA would be "between a rock and a hard place," Caulkins said. "They either have to ignore their own rules and regulations and say, we're just going to let the cannabis happen without the usual standards for medicine, or we're going to bite the bullet and crack down on a multibillion-dollar industry that's been operating for years now." The big picture: A rescheduling would be further evidence of the MAGA world's ability to take the reins on issues once associated with the progressive movement. "For the left, it's been much more about sort of social justice and righting the wrongs of the drug war," Sabet said. On the other hand: "You have part of the MAGA wing that has embraced this," he said. "It's about business, it's about money." Yes, but: This is already stirring up some disagreement among Trump's base. "I hope this doesn't happen," Turning Point USA founder and key MAGA influencer Charlie Kirk posted on X. "Everything already smells like weed, which is ridiculous. Let's make it harder to ruin public spaces, not easier." Relaxing marijuana rules also is stirring concern among state GOP lawmakers in states like Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Even administration officials such as FDA commissioner Marty Makary have posted warnings about health risks from cannabis use. Reality check: Trump was vague on the timing of any move when he confirmed the WSJ's reporting on Monday, saying: "We're only looking at that. It's early."
