Odds of asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 fall. What scientists now say about 2024 YR4

Yahoo

26-02-2025

Don't worry, astronomers now say a recently discovered asteroid poses no threat of colliding with Earth in seven years, but the moon has a slightly higher risk.
Updated orbit predictions show the chance of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth in seven years has dropped to practically zero, according to NASA. The near-earth object was discovered in 2024 and its chances of hitting Earth were revised upward for weeks, reaching record levels, before the most recent update.
"While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity for experts at NASA and its partner institutions to test planetary defense science and notification processes," Molly Wasser wrote for NASA.
Here's everything we know about the asteroid:
The asteroid is estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported to the Minor Planet Center on Dec. 27, 2024.
Data suggests the asteroid has an elongated shape, while measurements at visible wavelengths suggest it may be stony in composition, according to the Planetary Society.
No, it's unlikely 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth when it passes by on Dec. 22, 2032, updated astronomer predictions say.
The probability of impact initially was revised upward twice to a record 3.1%, but the odds dropped to 1.5% Wednesday, according to NASA.
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Then, in an X post Monday, NASA announced the "all clear," with the odds dropping again 0.004%.
"There is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century," the agency added in a blog post.
The European Space Agency shared a similar risk assessment of its own Tuesday, finding that the probability was 0.001%.
The chance of 2024 YR4 crashing into the moon on Dec. 22, 2032, stand at 1.7%, NASA said.
2024 YR4 will pass by Earth in 2032, though it will have no significant risk of collision, NASA said.
Asteroid 2024 YR4's current orbit is taking it away from Earth; it's currently about 56 million miles away, The Sky Live said.
The asteroid will continue to be visible from Earth through April, giving astronomers some time to gather data with ground-based telescopes. While the asteroid won't again be observable from Earth until June 2028, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope will be able to study it in March from orbit.
NASA and the European Space Agency also are interested in getting a better look at Apophis before and during its close approach to Earth in 2029.
For context, 2024 YR4 now rates at a 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. The scale, which ranges from 0 (no chance of impact) to 10 (a collision is certain and would cause worldwide devastation,) is a method for astronomers to categorize and rate the threat of near-Earth objects, USA Today reported.
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YR4 previously peaked at 3 on the scale. Ratings of 1 on the Torino scale are fairly common among newly discovered asteroids, but follow-up observations have always reduced that rating to 0, according to the Planetary Society.
USA TODAY contributed.
Contact Jenna Prestininzi: [e-mail].
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Earth safe from 2024 YR4 asteroid. Moon's odds of strike go up