Latest news with #MollyWasser
Yahoo
26-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Odds of asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 fall. What scientists now say about 2024 YR4
Don't worry, astronomers now say a recently discovered asteroid poses no threat of colliding with Earth in seven years, but the moon has a slightly higher risk. Updated orbit predictions show the chance of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth in seven years has dropped to practically zero, according to NASA. The near-earth object was discovered in 2024 and its chances of hitting Earth were revised upward for weeks, reaching record levels, before the most recent update. "While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity for experts at NASA and its partner institutions to test planetary defense science and notification processes," Molly Wasser wrote for NASA. Here's everything we know about the asteroid: The asteroid is estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported to the Minor Planet Center on Dec. 27, 2024. Data suggests the asteroid has an elongated shape, while measurements at visible wavelengths suggest it may be stony in composition, according to the Planetary Society. No, it's unlikely 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth when it passes by on Dec. 22, 2032, updated astronomer predictions say. The probability of impact initially was revised upward twice to a record 3.1%, but the odds dropped to 1.5% Wednesday, according to NASA. More: Why do I smell skunks? Mating season is underway for Michigan's stinky residents Then, in an X post Monday, NASA announced the "all clear," with the odds dropping again 0.004%. "There is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century," the agency added in a blog post. The European Space Agency shared a similar risk assessment of its own Tuesday, finding that the probability was 0.001%. The chance of 2024 YR4 crashing into the moon on Dec. 22, 2032, stand at 1.7%, NASA said. 2024 YR4 will pass by Earth in 2032, though it will have no significant risk of collision, NASA said. Asteroid 2024 YR4's current orbit is taking it away from Earth; it's currently about 56 million miles away, The Sky Live said. The asteroid will continue to be visible from Earth through April, giving astronomers some time to gather data with ground-based telescopes. While the asteroid won't again be observable from Earth until June 2028, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope will be able to study it in March from orbit. NASA and the European Space Agency also are interested in getting a better look at Apophis before and during its close approach to Earth in 2029. For context, 2024 YR4 now rates at a 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. The scale, which ranges from 0 (no chance of impact) to 10 (a collision is certain and would cause worldwide devastation,) is a method for astronomers to categorize and rate the threat of near-Earth objects, USA Today reported. More: 7 planets will parade across Michigan's sky this week: How to see them YR4 previously peaked at 3 on the scale. Ratings of 1 on the Torino scale are fairly common among newly discovered asteroids, but follow-up observations have always reduced that rating to 0, according to the Planetary Society. USA TODAY contributed. Contact Jenna Prestininzi: jprestininzi@ This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Earth safe from 2024 YR4 asteroid. Moon's odds of strike go up
Yahoo
21-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Good news! Asteroid 2024 YR4's Earth impact odds sharply drop
After briefly surpassing the potential threat of all other known asteroids, further observations have rapidly diminished the danger posed by 2024 YR4. Since its discovery just after Christmas, asteroid 2024 YR4 has caused some alarm. Initially flagged as a potentially hazardous asteroid, with just over a 1 per cent chance of hitting Earth in December of 2032, the odds of impact kept rising as more observations came in. Earlier this week, they even topped 3 per cent. According to the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC), this surpassed the highest impact probability set by asteroid Apophis, of 2.7 per cent, set back in 2004. Any danger from Apophis has been completely ruled out by now. Based on new information gathered over the past few days, it's very likely the same will soon be true of 2024 YR4. READ MORE: Astronomers have been tracking 2024 YR4 with their telescopes, and with those added observations, NASA and the ESA have gained a better understanding of exactly what path this object follows as it orbits the Sun. The Earth Impact Risk Summary for 2024 YR4, with data up to February 20, 2025, has significantly reduced the danger from this asteroid. (NASA CNEOS) As a result, its odds of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032 have dropped — first from 3.1 per cent down to 1.5 per cent as of February 19, and then down to 0.27 per cent as of February 20. Currently, there's just a 1 in 370 chance of impact, with a 99.73 per cent chance that it will miss. As noted in the image above, from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), 2024 YR4's risk level on the Torino scale has even dropped from 3 (a close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers) to 1 (a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger). The Torino Scale of Impact Risk. (NASA CNEOS) The full text of a Torino scale of 1 reads: "A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0." One remarkable thing about the new observations is that, while they are reducing the risk of impact with Earth, they are actually increasing the odds that 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon. The new uncertainy region for 2024 YR4's close enounter with the Earth-Moon system on December 22, 2032 has the asteroid's potential passes almost completely clearing Earth, but are now nearly centred on the orbit of the Moon. The original NEOCC image has been enlarged, with the location of the Moon on that date added based on NASA simulations. (ESA NEOCC/NASA CNEOS) "With this new data, the chance of an impact with the Moon increased slightly to 1%," Molly Wasser, the Outreach Coordinator for NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, posted on the agency's Planetary Defense blog. "NASA's planetary defense teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve our predictions of the asteroid's trajectory." Given that the asteroid is likely around 60 metres wide, it would not cause any significant damage to the Moon if it hit. Also, it's doubtful anyone on Earth would notice the crater that formed, even if they were using a powerful telescope. If such an impact does take place, it may be up to NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to reveal the results of it. Click here to view the video
Express Tribune
07-02-2025
- Science
- Express Tribune
Asteroid collision risk rises for Earth in 2032
Listen to article The likelihood of a giant asteroid striking Earth in 2032 has increased, According to NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid 2024 YR now carries a 2.3% chance of collision, up from the previously estimated 1.3% in December. This means there's now a 1-in-43 chance of the asteroid hitting Earth on its closest approach, expected on December 22, 2032, However experts say there's no need for panic Just a week ago, the European Space Agency (ESA) gave the asteroid a much lower 1.3% chance, estimating a near 99% probability it would pass Earth without incident. The space rock, measuring up to 90 meters in diameter, is similar in size to the 1908 Tunguska asteroid that exploded in Siberia, flattening 830 square miles 2,150 square kilometers of forest. Despite the raised odds, astronomers are urging calm. 'It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that,' said Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh. He added that the more data collected, the more accurate future predictions will be. Fluctuations in impact probabilities are common for asteroids that are years away, and astronomers expect the chances of a collision to decrease as new data comes in. ESA's video. 'How asteroids go from threat to no sweat,' explains that updated information about the asteroid's speed and trajectory will likely bring its risk closer to zero in the coming months. NASA's planetary defense coordination office also agrees that the chances of an impact will decrease. 'There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data has come in,' said researcher Molly Wasser. The asteroid has been rated a three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranges from zero (no risk) to 10 (a civilization-ending impact). While this places 2024 YR4 at the top of official risk lists, it still poses little cause for alarm, say experts. NASA's successful Dart mission in 2022, which deliberately crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid to alter its trajectory, has also provided hope for future asteroid defense. 'This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required,' said Snodgrass. 'We have the technology, and it has been tested.' Despite the increased odds, astronomers believe that this asteroid is more likely to pass harmlessly by Earth, and further observations will help to refine predictions and clarify the risk.
The Guardian
06-02-2025
- Science
- The Guardian
Asteroid's chances of hitting Earth in 2032 just got higher – but don't panic!
It might not be the world-ending apocalypse foretold in the Netflix drama Don't Look Up, but astronomers have significantly upped the odds of a direct hit from a giant asteroid currently hurtling towards Earth. According to Nasa's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (Cneos), the odds of a strike in 2032 by the space rock that goes by the somewhat unassuming name 2024 YR are calculated to be 2.3% – a one-in-43 chance. Barely a week ago, the European Space Agency (Esa) gave the asteroid a 1.3% chance of hitting the planet on 22 December that year, the day it will make its closest approach to Earth. Or, phrased another way, it had an almost 99% probability of passing by without incident. At up to 300ft (90m) in width, according to Nasa-funded skywatchers who spotted it from a telescope in Chile just before new year, the object is roughly the same size as the Tunguska asteroid that flattened about 830 square miles (2,150 sq km) of remote Siberian forest when it exploded in 1908. Astronomers, however, are urging Earth dwellers not to panic, even though 2024 YR4 has rocketed to the top of official impact risk lists on both sides of the Atlantic, and has the rare rating of three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale that ranges from a no-risk zero to a civilization-ending 10. Fluctuations in the chances of a strike so far out from an object's arrival are common, and in a YouTube video entitled 'How asteroids go from threat to no sweat', Esa explains that the likelihood of 2024 YR4 ever striking the planet will drop to virtually zero once updated data on speed and trajectory is received in the coming weeks and months. The planetary defense coordination office of Nasa, the US space agency, agrees. 'There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in,' researcher Molly Wasser said in a statement. 'New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to zero as more data come in.' Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, told the Guardian last week: 'Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly. 'It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become.' Other recent similar scares would appear to reinforce the message. The asteroid 99942 Apophis, discovered in 2004 and larger than the Eiffel Tower, was once given a rating of four on the Torino scale, but was eventually calculated to be no threat to Earth on any of its close passes for at least the next 100 years. Yet even if 2024 YR4 continues on towards Earth with a high chance of impact, the success of Nasa's Dart mission in 2022, in which a spacecraft was deliberately crashed into an asteroid the size of a football stadium and altered its trajectory, gives grounds for optimism for the future of humanity. 'This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required, so we have the technology and it has been tested,' Snodgrass said.
