The prompt theory

Express Tribune

23-05-2025

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Are we living in the most oppressive timeline or the most fascinating one? It is hard to tell. One minute, technological breakthroughs take your breath away; the next, mankind does something so stupid you start worrying about its future. Before introducing the technological bit, let me inform you that this piece is not about tech development - nor the fascinating twist to which it owes its title.
In this climate, it is hard to talk about anything other than the India-Pakistan conflict. But technology provides an interesting trigger. You will see.
Last week, Google launched Veo 3, its most advanced AI video generator. Its biggest highlight is that it creates videos with synchronised audio, including dialogue, sound effects and music. This is a significant step-up from Veo 2 and OpenAI's Sora, which lacked native audio and had lower overall quality and control.
Seeing is believing, and it is the kind of technology that can instantly kill the entire entertainment industry. Forget about actors, directors, special effects artists and musicians. Just feed text and pictures relating to a script through a prompt and watch it come true.
If, for some reason, you feel that the outcome is subpar, take solace in the fact that the previous model, Veo 2, was released only six months ago. And who knows what Sora and other AI brands will come up with next.
What intrigued me the most while going through various generated videos was a series of clips someone with remarkable humour and a sense of irony had produced. The realistic characters in those clips can be heard and seen rejecting what they call the "prompt theory" — the idea that they are created by prompts and a random prompt writer is deciding their fate.
If this rings a bell, that is because it is a play on the idea many know as the simulation theory — the belief that we exist in an elaborate four-dimensional realistic simulation. You will be surprised to know how many influential figures believe in that.
My response to the notion is simple. Call it by any name, life is life. As long as we can live and feel it, it is life. But here's the rub. We think we are free agents. But the truth is, what we call free will is also an algorithm. A complex, partly biological, partly sociologically informed algorithm, I grant you — but an algorithm nonetheless. So, call it predestined or whatever you will; we are creatures of our circumstances.
Now, from the sublime to the stupid. India says its war on Pakistan is only suspended, not ended. I wish the Indian media could also suspend its war on the sensibilities of its viewers — and common sense. But the Punch and Judy show continues unabated. Remember that dark night when overzealous Indian anchors were claiming that their country's forces had destroyed Pakistan? Once their unprofessionalism was badly exposed, not everyone showed contrition.
One anchor recorded a video and shared it on social media. In the clip, he asked what was so wrong in lying about Pakistan. His video was also shared by the ruling BJP's official handle. Another genius claimed there was no point in getting alarmed by this as it was just an average, everyday psychological operation. How is it a psychological operation if the end user is your domestic audience? He did not care to elaborate.
The impunity with which these elements can carry on without consequences should tell you you are dealing with an exceptional condition. It is one sign, at any rate.
But if that was the situation within India, guess what was happening outside. The Indian diaspora is known for its competence. Many have well-deservedly risen to the top in their respective professions. Being sympathetic to the country of your origin is not unheard of - especially when it is a cultural powerhouse like India.
So far, so good. But until this government came to power, the Indian state either desisted from exploiting their loyalty or used it subtly and sparingly. However, this government, since 2014, has leaned heavily on them as well as native Indophiles, shunning those who refused to play ball - particularly in media and academia. So, those who did comply have risen in the ranks. And their spin is not subtle.
Consider the tweet by Shashank Joshi, the Defence Editor of The Economist, commenting on Jim Sciutto's admirable story citing French authorities: "France acknowledges the loss of an Indian Rafale. According to the images circulating, which appear to be original, it may have been the first of 36 Rafale that entered service in the Indian Air Force.
The next question is whether it was hit by a Chinese PL-15 missile." Do you see the sleight of hand? Indian Rafale, Chinese PL-15? China-India dispute framing tracks better in the West. Otherwise, if PL-15s are Chinese, Rafales are French. If Rafales are Indian, PL-15s are Pakistani. But framing it as a China-India conflict says India is fighting the "good fight" against China; Pakistan is just in the way - only collateral damage.
In his tweet dated May 10, some serious foreshadowing: "I think there will be a lot of interest in satellite images in the coming days to sort through which side's claims of striking which targets are true and which are exaggerated or false, particularly in relation to strikes on air defence systems, air bases and other military sites." No kidding.
The New York Times published a story on May 14 titled, "India and Pakistan Talked Big, but Satellite Imagery Shows Limited Damage." The story mentioned a May 10 claim by Pakistani authorities of damaging the Udhampur air base and produced a satellite image taken two days later - allowing two whole days for cover-up and repair. The Pakistani images are undated. Why is this suspicious? Because, to the current Indian government, image is more important than reality.
Another gentleman torn from the same cloth: Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy's Editor-in-Chief, who appeared on CNN's marathon transmission presenting Indian strikes as a rational choice. The comfort with which this lot brushes aside the questions about inculpatory evidence is breathtaking. But then there were researchers from the diaspora who wrote research papers trying to scientifically validate PM Modi's belief that cloud cover can help evade radar detection. This is some next-level mind-bending spin.
And here we have our dear Pakistani colleagues who are beating themselves up just because, in view of their mild-mannered and responsible coverage, their government praised their behaviour. When you are fighting an existential battle against such industrial-scale falsehoods, what do you care who praises you? Tell yourselves you are better at civilisational prompt writing.