Mercedes blew the rest away in Canada but it could be a blip

Telegraph

5 hours ago

After 10 rounds, Mercedes became the first team to break the McLaren and Red Bull stranglehold on race wins in 2025. I have to say George Russell's victory in Canada surprised me, especially after their recent form in the European triple-header.
Russell's pole and victory is one thing, but his team-mate Kimi Antonelli put in a strong performance to take his first podium. It was a good team performance, which is encouraging. They have obviously taken a step in the right direction.
Where did this pace come from? Well, just because they have taken a step does not necessarily mean they know why, or that it will be repeated. Any team need to understand why their car is quick as much as why their car is slow. As welcome as it is, Mercedes may well be scratching their heads after last weekend. That has often been the case in the past four seasons. Their performances have been so volatile since the new ground-effect era began in 2022.
We heard a lot from Russell talking about the cooler temperatures in Montreal aiding Mercedes. This is normally discussed in relation to the degradation and performance of the tyres, but temperature is far more critical to an F1 car's performance than just that. After all, temperature – both ambient and track – relates to the efficiency of the numerous aerodynamic surfaces on these ground-effect cars. That in turn relates to the car sliding, which leads to higher temperature in the tyres and tyre wear.
To expand on that a little more, all of the aerodynamic surfaces on the car – the wings, the under-floor, the sidepods – all generate downforce. They all work differently, relative to where they are positioned on the car. The under-floor performance, as it is close to the track surface, works relatively to the ambient and track temperature, the front wing too but to a lesser degree. The rear wing is independent and is more relative to the ambient temperature, as it is higher up.
Anything to do with temperature, humidity or ground temperature will affect those surfaces and how the car performs. The hotter it gets the more critical those surfaces are and they will act differently. When the temperatures increase, the aerodynamic surfaces that are working critically will suffer more from air flow separation. I am not sure that Mercedes fully understand how all of this affects their car. It is something they really need to dig into.
A lot of factors suited them in Montreal and they took advantage. One of them was that McLaren had their poorest weekend of 2025. For the first time they did not have a car on the front row and this was the first time there was no McLaren on the podium either. It was not helped by Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris's crash, but Russell looked nailed on for the win at that point anyway.
Piastri and Norris come together in Canada! 😱
Here's the collision between the two McLarens 💥 #F1 #CanadianGP pic.twitter.com/sKo3GRQ63Q
— Formula 1 (@F1) June 15, 2025
Perhaps McLaren have become a tiny bit complacent, or at least their drivers have. That is not to say they are easing off because they expect to win, but it seems that both drivers tended to ease into the weekend. Perhaps the jump from final practice to qualifying was a bit too big this time. I think they need to start pushing harder earlier on in the weekend to make sure they are in a good position.
Montreal was always unlikely to be a strong track for them because of how the MCL39 behaves. It has a very stable aerodynamic platform, which is good in lots of situations (especially long, high-speed corners), but it leaves them with a numbness and lack of feeling under braking. This has affected Norris most, especially in qualifying.
With all the high-speed chicanes in Montreal, that is a crucial part of lap time. It means the McLaren drivers have to be a bit robotic in finding exactly the same braking point lap after lap with precision. That only comes through practice. As we saw on Friday they struggled to really hook the car up because of the lack of feeling and they never really recovered, a promising final stint in the race aside. The lack of feedback from the car for the drivers under braking certainly did not help. That said, the car needs to be quick over 24 races, not just one. This is likely just a blip.
Speaking of blips, Canada could just be a positive one for Mercedes. It is far from certain that their improvement will be prolonged and we will have to wait and judge after the next few races. Austria next week could be a strong circuit for them. Although the characteristics of the track are different, the downforce levels are similar. I can see them doing a good job there. The fast and flowing Silverstone, though, will be a much sterner test, as it usually is.