Analysis: Clash of styles to define Women's Premier Division title deciders

RTÉ News​

15 hours ago

Although two-thirds of the season has been played and only two months remain, the battle for the 2025 Women's Premier Division has yet to really begin.
That is because the paths of the league's two dominant sides, Athlone Town and Shelbourne, have yet to cross due to an earlier match postponement. All that will change this weekend when they meet in the Midlands.
Last year's top two and FAI cup finalists have built up a three-point lead with a game in hand on nearest challengers Wexford, making a two-horse race appear likely.
Over the last four seasons, Shels and Athlone have shown themselves to be head and shoulders above the rest, with 26 more points than any other team and just 13 of a difference between themselves.
That's not to mention the fact that they have met in the three FAI Cup finals played in that time, with two wins going to Shelbourne and one to Athlone.
Their head-to-head meetings were decisive in 2024's title chase, with Athlone's four points won being critical in Town taking the title by two points. Of particular importance were late goals, with a 93rd-minute equaliser in their first meeting and an 87th-minute winner in August's second encounter earning them three precious points.
Both teams' seasons have gone on similar journeys to this point. They dropped points to Shamrock Rovers in the first two weeks of the season. Both then went on searing nine-game winning stretches to establish themselves as clear leaders.
Those runs ended in mid-July with a loss for Shels against Bohemians and Athlone being held to three consecutive draws by Galway United, Treaty United and Bohemians.
That has all led to them both entering this week perfectly poised with just a two-point lead for the Reds. But how they have earned their points has been a little different.
Shelbourne have been a free-scoring side in 2025. That contrasts with Eoin Wearen's first season as manager when they struggled to find the net as much as they would like - their season total of 38 was only third-best in the division and 11 fewer than the previous year. They particularly struggled early and scored just 11 goals in the first 15 games.
All of that changed with the mid-season addition of the magnificent Kate Mooney. She banged in nine in her eight league appearance. That was more than double what any other player had managed all season. Scoring depth has improved this season with MacKenzie Anthony just two off Mooney's current total of nine.
They have helped Shelbourne in already reaching 47 goals. This is four more than any team managed in all of 2024 with just 14 games played to reach this. Their rate of 3.36 per game is a fraction behind 2021 Peamount (3.37) for the best that any team has managed since 2019. That was an era when the league's bottom sides allowed much more goals.
No team has averaged at least three since 2021. Though it may be of concern for Shelbourne to note that only twice (2019 and 2020) in the last eight years have the league's top scorers become champions.
Which may also be of interest to Athlone Town. Seven of the last nine league winners have ended the season with the best defensive record and that is where Athlone are succeeding. This is also a bit of a role reversal for Town. In the previous three seasons, their conceded total of 65 was 30 worse off than Shelbourne and only two fewer than Galway United and Peamount United.
With the off-season losses of goalkeeper Katie Keane and Jesi Rossman, both in the 2025 league team of the year, there could have been concern about regression. Particularly having seen 12 put past them in their last four games in 2024. However, Athlone's numbers this season are on track to break records.
Colin Fortune's team have so far conceded a remarkably frugal six goals in 14 matches. That puts them on a rate of 0.43 per game. The best record achieved in league history is at 0.45 from Shelbourne a year ago. The only other time a team allowed fewer than 0.5 per game was again by the Tolka Park club back in 2022.
Such has been their dominance, their two keepers are around the top of the clean sheets list. Megan Plaschko has the joint-most with five while Maria Matthaiou is joint-third on four.
Some of the individual battles could be key. The absence of Kate Mooney and the 11 goals to her name means much onus with be on MacKenzie Anthony to outperform Athlone's Kelly Brady who is at the top of the scoring charts on 12.
Mooney's finishing has been exceptional, scoring 11 from a xG of just 7.39. Brady has also outperformed her xG but less so with it standing at 9.97. Mooney's efficiency is also shown by her taking just 34 shots to score her goals with Brady leading the league with 57.
The other end of the pitch will be similarly tight. Although Shels have conceded the second-fewest goals, they are yet to keep a clean sheet against a team in the top seven and went on a run of six games without shutting out any side until beating Cork City 2-0 a fortnight ago.
Athlone have hit a minor scoring blip in the last five games. They managed six in their last four at a rate of 1.5, having been at 2.8 up to that point.
Both Athlone and Shelbourne have shown themselves to be still ahead of the chasing pack so far this season. But the question of who can get the better of their individual battles remain. Star players all over the pitch will be looking to make the decisive contribution.
Saturday night's game is the classic unstoppable force vs unmovable object showdown. Well-balanced match ups at both ends of the pitch are set to decide this match and play a big part in determining the who holds the balance of power in the battle for the league title.