Experts issue warning on ocean phenomenon that could impact hurricane season: 'It's been notable over the month'
What's happening?
An Atlantic Niña, characterized by persistent cool surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, typically lasts for at least two consecutive three-month periods. An Atlantic Niña can cool the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean by over one degree Fahrenheit below normal.
In August 2024, a report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration first made note of the potential for the development of an Atlantic Niña.
Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which are based in the Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Niñas are often considered to have less impact on overall weather patterns. However, the cooler surface temperatures in the Atlantic can play a large role in determining the viability of tropical waves coming off the coast of West Africa.
Carl Schreck, a senior research scholar with the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies at North Carolina State University, explained the inner workings of the weather phenomenon.
"An Atlantic Niña is cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea, which tends to weaken the monsoon and easterly waves over West Africa," Schreck told the Cayman Compass. "The strength of that monsoon is a key predictor of hurricane activity, so an Atlantic Niña could reduce activity."
Why is an Atlantic Niña important?
Although an Atlantic Niña may seem to be good news for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, it appears that the effects will soon dissipate. "It's been notable over the month," said Ryan Truchelut, president of Weather Tiger. "But I don't think it will continue very long. It just doesn't have the kind of persistence that the Pacific events do."
According to Truchelut, the writing is already on the wall. "We're already seeing weaker trade winds, and those waters are warming up very quickly. Also, if you go down 25 or 50 metres, it's still warmer than normal." "If the Atlantic Niña was going to persist longer, the cold water would likely go down a lot further. So, I think that this will turn around probably within the next month," Truchelut added.
With the Atlantic Niña likely on its way out the door, the waters will eventually warm back up, providing fuel for tropical systems to develop. As warm ocean water evaporates, it creates moisture in the air. As this moist air rises and cools, water vapor condenses into clouds and potentially storms.
What's being done about the upcoming hurricane season?
Because of the potential for such warm ocean waters, many tropical waves that develop into storms have a higher probability of bringing stronger winds and heavier rainfall. This is why, despite the slow start to the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, many experts are still forecasting a highly active summer.
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The NOAA is predicting that at least 17 named storms will develop throughout the hurricane season, with up to five of those storms becoming major hurricanes.
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