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US and Vietnam say they have reached agreement to lower tariffs

US and Vietnam say they have reached agreement to lower tariffs

Nikkei Asia15 hours ago
A shoe factory in Vietnam. The Southeast Asian nation was one of the U.S. trading partners hit hardest by Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs. © Reuters
Nikkei staff writers
HANOI/NEW YORK -- The U.S. and Vietnam have reached a trade agreement to lower tariffs on each other's goods, both sides said Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that "Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory, and a 40% Tariff on any Transshipping."
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Trump Says US and Vietnam Have Reached an Agreement on Tariffs
Trump Says US and Vietnam Have Reached an Agreement on Tariffs

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Trump Says US and Vietnam Have Reached an Agreement on Tariffs

The United States and Vietnam have struck a trade agreement that sets a tariff of 20 percent tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the U.S., President Donald Trump announced yesterday, reducing tensions between the two nations days before a harsher tariff was set to go into effect. In a post on Truth social, Trump said that the deal would involve a 20 percent tariff 'on any and all goods' exported to the U.S., while transhipped goods – those that pass through Vietnam to circumvent steeper trade barriers – would be hit with a 40 percent tariff. This is considerably lower than the 46 percent rate levied on Vietnam by Trump during his announcement of the sweeping 'reciprocal tariffs' on April 2. 'It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam after speaking with To Lam, the Highly Respected General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam,' Trump wrote. He added that Vietnam had agreed to lower its tariffs on all U.S. imports to zero, something that Trump said would benefit the U.S. car industry in particular. 'It is my opinion that the SUV or, as it is sometimes referred to, Large Engine Vehicle, which does so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam,' Trump said. The deal was also confirmed by Vietnamese state media, which reported that on a call that Lam held with Trump yesterday, the two leaders 'welcomed the agreement reached by the two countries' negotiating teams on the Joint Vietnam-United States Statement on a Fair, Balanced, and Reciprocal Trade Agreement Framework.' According to one report, Trump 'affirmed that the U.S. would significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs on many of Vietnam's export items and would continue to work with Vietnam to address obstacles affecting bilateral trade relations, particularly in areas prioritized by both sides.' Lam also proposed that the U.S. 'soon recognize Vietnam as a market economy and lift export restrictions on certain high-tech products,' and extended an invitation for Trump to visit Vietnam. The announcement, which sent the shares of Nike and other Vietnam-based apparel makers climbing, comes just days before a July 9 deadline that Trump set to resolve negotiations before the imposition of the reciprocal tariffs, including the 46 percent tariff on Vietnamese goods. The tariff threatened to throttle the trade between the U.S. and Vietnam, which has grown by leaps and bounds since the first Trump administration. Indeed, Vietnam was one of the great winners of Trump's first 'trade war' with China. As multinational firms set up factories in Vietnam to reduce their reliance on China as a manufacturing base, the country increased its export share to the U.S. in all categories of products. However, this has seen Vietnam's trade surplus grow rapidly, from $38.3 billion in 2017 to $123.5 billion last year. This has attracted the attention of Trump's hawkish trade advisors, who say that the deficit has been pumped up by the use of Vietnam as a transshipment point for Chinese goods seeking to avoid previous U.S. tariffs. According to some reports, this represents both outright fraud – the slapping of 'Made in Vietnam' labels on Chinese-made products – and the establishment by Chinese companies of factories in Vietnam. Exactly how prevalent the issue is remains a subject of dispute, but on Fox News in April, Trump's hawkish trade adviser Peter Navarro accused Vietnam of being 'essentially a colony of communist China.' During the recent tariff negotiations, Vietnam duly pledged to address the issue. If confirmed, the terms of the agreement are set to significantly increase the price of the garments, electronics, and other goods that Vietnam exports to the U.S. However, Hanoi will likely be satisfied with this outcome, given the worst-case scenario. An earlier report by Reuters report suggested that Vietnam is hoping to get the 46 percent tariff 'reduced to a range of 22 percent to 28 percent, if not lower.' This may depend on whether there are any other unpublicized elements to the deal. Last month, Reuters news agency reported that U.S. trade negotiators had sent a list of 'tough' requests to Vietnam that would force the country to 'cut its reliance on Chinese industrial goods imports,' which have spiked in line with the rise in Vietnamese exports to the U.S. According to the report, the Trump administration 'wants Vietnam-based factories to reduce their use of materials and components from China and is asking the country to control more carefully its production and supply chains.' It also remains unclear whether the U.S. will agree to Lam's requests for the United States to recognize it as a market economy – a step that the Biden administration declined to take last year – and remove restrictions on the exports of high-tech products to the country. In the immediate term, the deal seems set to stabilize the relationship between Vietnam and the U.S., which has grown in recent years in large part due to a shared concern for China's rising power. The longer-term impacts are harder to guess. It is clear that Hanoi was stung by the announcement of the 46 percent tariff, one of the highest rates in the world, and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said that it 'did not reflect the strong bilateral relations between the two nations.' Despite this compromise, Vietnamese leaders will likely continue their efforts, telegraphed shortly after the April 2 tariff announcement, to diversify the country's export markets. Given the unpredictability of U.S. policy over the past few administrations, it is wise to cushion themselves against a future spasm of protectionism.

BOJ rate hikes to resume after temporary pause, policy board member says
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BOJ rate hikes to resume after temporary pause, policy board member says

The Bank of Japan's rate hike cycle will resume after "only' a temporary pause, policy board member Hajime Takata warned, keeping his hawkish tone even after U.S. President Donald Trump clouded the economic outlook by threatening to impose tariffs on Japanese goods higher than those previously touted. "I believe that the bank is currently only pausing its policy interest rate hike cycle and should continue to make a gear shift after a certain period of 'wait and see,'' Takata said Thursday in a speech to local business leaders in Mie Prefecture. Takata's remarks made it clear that the BOJ is continuing to look for further opportunities to raise rates even after the prospects for a trade deal with the U.S. appeared to recede after Trump floated the idea of increasing tariffs to 35%, compared with a previous plan to hike an across-the-board duty to 24% starting next week. Takata, considered a hawkish member of the central bank's board, said authorities "may need to nimbly shift back to the rate hike cycle in response to policy changes' in the U.S. His remarks indicate there's still a chance of another hike this year depending on the effects of the levies. Given high uncertainties regarding U.S. policies, "the bank is required to conduct monetary policy in a more flexible manner without being too pessimistic,' he said. Takata was speaking as Japan's pace of inflation has stayed elevated at the highest level among Group of Seven major industrial nations. A key measure for the cost of living hit a fresh two-year high in May, and a record of the BOJ's meeting last month reflected a shared awareness among officials that price growth is a little stronger than expected. "Japan's economy is at a stage where the price stability target is close to being achieved,' Takata said. "The key to a further gear shift in monetary policy is the sustainability of positive corporate behavior.' BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly said underlying inflation remains below the bank's 2% target and he wants to see the trend rise before raising rates again. He also wants to confirm the likely magnitude of the economic impact from U.S. trade policies. In previous speeches, Takata, a veteran economist and former bond analyst, has noted the need to raise borrowing costs as economic activity improves. Remarks of that nature in the weeks running up to the BOJ's historic end of its massive monetary easing program in March 2024 helped investors prepare for the coming shift. "Even if the economy remains robust at the moment, the longer concerns about tariffs remain, the greater the downward pressure on economic activity could become,' Takata said Thursday. The BOJ will deliver its next policy decision on July 31, with more than 90% of BOJ watchers surveyed last month expecting the benchmark rate to be left at 0.5%.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average Meanders on US Trade Deal Uncertainty; Steelmakers Jump
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Yomiuri Shimbun

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Japan's Nikkei Stock Average Meanders on US Trade Deal Uncertainty; Steelmakers Jump

TOKYO, July 3 (Reuters) – Japan's Nikkei share gauge swung between gains and losses on Thursday as uncertainty over a trade deal with the United States and the threat of heavy tariffs prompted investor caution. The Nikkei 225 Index edged 0.1% lower as of the morning break while the broader Topix was down 0.3%. Prolonged trade negotiations with the U.S. have yet to produce a deal, with President Donald Trump recently threatening even higher tariffs on Japan. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Wednesday he was determined to protect Japan's national interests, while chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa was reported to be organizing his eighth visit to the U.S. as early as this weekend. 'If the negotiations do not produce results, it will be a major blow to the Japanese economy,' said Nomura strategist Fumika Shimizu. There were 112 advancers on the Nikkei index against 110 decliners. The biggest percentage losers on the gauge were Muji-brand retailer Ryohin Keikaku, down 6%, followed by NH Foods, which slid 4.9%. JFE Holdings surged 4.9%, leading an advance among iron and steel makers, which were the biggest gainers among the Tokyo Stock Exchange's 33 industry sub-indexes.

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