ESPN reporter drops bombshell in latest update on potential CFP changes
Strength of schedule, head-to-head results, conference championships and common opponents are some of the biggest criteria used to determine the participants of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Could TV ratings soon become another criteria?
ESPN college football analyst Heather Dinich alluded to such a possibility in a new report (subscription required) Monday ahead of the annual spring meetings this week between FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua in Texas.
While no significant changes to the 12-team format will go into effect in 2025, it has seemed for months like a foregone conclusion that the CFP will expand to at least 14 teams in time for the 2026 season. As Dinich notes, changes to the 2026 CFP format must be in place before Dec. 1. Dinich also noted that there was both "private and public resistance to the idea of leagues having guaranteed spots to the postseason before the games are played."
As things currently stand, the CFP's four highest-ranked conference champions are seeded 1-4 and receive a first-round bye in the playoff. The SEC and Big Ten have been lobbying for a format that would guarantee their respective leagues four automatic berths in an expanded field, so it isn't surprising that there's been resistance to that from the ACC and Big 12.
But then this nugget from Dinich's report appeared:
"One possibility, which could be viewed as a compromise, is having conferences earn automatic bids through their play each season. A model in which each Power 4 league can earn guaranteed spots through a combination of its teams' overall records -- and maybe even TV ratings, according to a source -- could be presented. The highest-ranked conferences would earn the most automatic bids."
Highest-ranked? Or most-watched?
If TV ratings are taken into consideration, teams like Alabama would benefit greatly. The Crimson Tide always have a good overall record, even if their four losses last season were less than ideal in the first year following Nick Saban's retirement.
They're also high on the list of the most watched college football teams in any given year. So is Ohio State, Michigan, and the rest of the sport's blue bloods. Alabama was the third-most watched team in the 2024 regular season, according to Nielsen research.
Only the Georgia Bulldogs (8.6 million) and national champion Buckeyes (6.8 million) totaled more average viewers per game than Alabama's 6.6 million. The Texas Longhorns (6.4 million) and Tennessee Volunteers (5.4 million) were fourth and fifth, respectively, on the list of most-watched teams, per Nielsen's data.
Alabama has topped or been near the top of the list of most watched college football teams for years. Dating back to 2020 alone, Alabama was the most watched team that year and in 2023 (7.12 million). They were the third-most watched team in 2021 and 2022.
Aside from that, Dinich's report reiterates what's already known: the SEC and Big Ten are in the driver's seat in the next wave of postseason format changes -- and just about any other changes to the sport.
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