Social Studies: Feeling meh about ChatGPT; when government agencies retaliate; Hollywood blockbusters and the stock market
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This pattern also held in two other experiments. One compared the experience of using traditional Google search and the 'AI Overview' that Google now presents in its search results. The other found that people who read advice written by people who had consulted ChatGPT considered the advice less informative, less trustworthy, and indicative of less effort than advice written by people who had used traditional Google search.
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Melumad, S. & Yun, J., 'Experimental Evidence of the Effects of Large Language Models Versus Web Search on Depth of Learning,' University of Pennsylvania (January 2025).
The deep (contracting) state
If a company loses out on a bid for a federal contract, it can file a protest with the Government Accountability Office — but that might lead to retaliation down the road, according to a new study.
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Researchers used the Freedom of Information Act to get GAO data about bid protests filed between 2005 and 2016. The researchers wanted to assess whether successful protests (ones in which the government agency that wrongly denied a bid was forced to take corrective action) later affected the protesting companies. The researchers managed to isolate the effect by finding incidents in which multiple companies submitted protests over the same contract but at least one of them was hindered by a local power outage around the time of the submission deadline. Because these outages impaired the quality of submissions and reduced the likelihood of a successful protest, the researchers could observe a difference in what happened to the companies that ended up with a successful protest: They suffered for it. In the subsequent years, such companies received fewer and less valuable contracts and experienced more contract cancellations from the agency against which it had lodged the protest. And the odds of the company protesting another agency contract fell to near zero.
Canayaz, M. et al., 'Choose Your Battles Wisely: The Consequences of Protesting Government Procurement Contracts,' Management Science (forthcoming).
Raging bull
If President Trump really wants the stock market to go up, he should make some calls to Hollywood executives. A study finds that from 2000 through 2019, blockbuster movie releases — defined as releases in more than 4,000 theaters — boosted the stock market the following week by an average of half a percentage point, even controlling for month of the year, holidays, and other stock-market and economic factors. Increased online searches using movie and theater-chain terms also predicted stock-market gains. The effect appears to be that such movies boost both people's happiness (as measured by Twitter sentiment) and investor optimism while reducing people's expectations of stock-market volatility and their risk aversion. Whether a movie is upbeat or is in a certain genre doesn't appear to matter. There were, on average, about seven blockbuster releases per year in the time frame studied.
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Hong, S. & Wei, X., 'Blockbuster or Bust? Silver Screen Effect and Stock Returns,' Review of Finance (forthcoming).
Empty calories
Researchers found that people expect poor people to prioritize their basic physical needs over higher-level psychological needs, while rich people are expected to prioritize the latter and to thus enjoy certain products and experiences more. For example, simply telling people that a restaurant 'approaches food as art' leads them to expect that poor people will enjoy it less. But surveys of poor people about their preferences and experiences aren't consistent with these expectations.
Olson, J. et al., 'When and Why Consumers (Erroneously) Believe Income Impacts the Enjoyment of Consumption Experiences,' Journal of Consumer Research (forthcoming).
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Yahoo
33 minutes ago
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All the ways Trump and Musk could tear each other apart
The fallout from Elon Musk's bitter public spat with Donald Trump struck an immediate blow, sending shares in the billionaire's company Tesla tumbling. But the damage risks spreading much further as two of the world's most powerful men squabble over policy, politics and personal behaviour. As US president, Mr Trump has the powers of the federal government at his fingertips – giving him a variety of ways to make Mr Musk's life difficult through investigations, regulatory actions and even scrutiny of his immigration status. Yet at the same time, the world's richest man has leverage too: his billions may hold the key to maintaining Republican control of Congress, with crucial midterm elections coming up next year. Both men have fiercely loyal followings, ready to trash their rival's reputation. And both have a burn-it-down mentality that pushes them to keep going until they have won… or lost it all. Here's how the pair could go to war against each other: Mr Musk is already fighting off multiple probes into his business empire. America's stock market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission, is investigating whether he violated trading rules when he first began investing in Twitter, now called X. When investors hold 5 per cent or more of a company's stock, they are supposed to declare it publicly. But the SEC accuses Mr Musk of waiting at least 10 days too long, only making a disclosure when he already owned 9.2 per cent of Twitter. He went on to buy the entire business in a $44 billion deal. At the same time, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating accidents involving Tesla cars when their full-self driving mode is activated. Shareholders assumed these probes would be dropped by a Musk-friendly administration. Now they might only be the beginning. 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40 minutes ago
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Android Circuit rounds up the news from the Android world every weekend here on Forbes. Don't forget to follow me so you don't miss any coverage in the future, and of course, read the sister column in Apple Loop! Last week's Android Circuit can be found here, and if you have any news and links you'd like to see featured in Android Circuit, get in touch!
