Why The Indiana Pacers Run To The NBA Finals Is Unlike Any Other

Forbes

2 days ago

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MAY 27: Andrew Nembhard #2 of the Indiana Pacers reacts after a three point ... More shot during the second quarter in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on May 27, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by)
One of the stats I've been keeping tabs on throughout this postseason is role player 3-point shooting. The reason for this is that, in the playoffs, defenses tend to focus on their opponent's best players and dare the other players on the court (i.e., the role players) to beat them from beyond the 3-point line.
If one team's role players shoot much better than they did in the regular season, it can cause them to outperform expectations, and vice versa if they shoot much worse than what they usually do.
With this in mind, this postseason, there has been one team that is benefitting from this boost more than practically any "underdog" in the 3-point era.
This postseason, the Indiana Pacers are leading the tournament in role player 3-point shooting percentage (41.3%). They also have the highest difference between their regular season and postseason 3-point percentage (+5.3%). For those wondering, here is a full chart of all those numbers.
Anyway, looking at these numbers, it makes sense that a team that finished with just the fourth-best record in the Eastern Conference was able to defy the odds and be the last team standing on that side of the bracket. Their complimentary guys are hitting their "dare shots" more often than any other team in the pool.
What's interesting, though, is how little their hot shooting is being discussed. When we talk about the Pacers, we often talk about their speed, Tyrese Haliburton's splendor, or their great coaching. And while all those talking points deserve their own segments, very little has been made about guys like Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and Thomas Bryant shooting well above their normal averages.
However, when you look at this through the lens of the entire pace-and-space era (which, for the sake of this article, we are defining as 2010-present), what is happening right now is basically unprecedented.
Of the 32 teams to play in the NBA Finals since 2010, only five (15.6%) were not a top three seed in their respective conference (making them "underdogs" in the title contention sense). Here is the regular season and playoff role player 3-point % for each of those teams:
The Pacers have the highest role player 3-point % and the highest difference between the two of any other team in this group. They are even higher than the Cinderella 2022-23 Miami Heat – a run that many people attributed to shooting luck.
Of course, one could argue that the Pacers' difference is only higher because they have yet to play in the NBA Finals. With a larger data set, their shooting numbers will stabilize, and they won't look like as much of an outlier.
To counter this, we've included the role player 3-point % for the other teams through just the first three rounds of the postseason:
While the margin is far closer, this Pacers' team is still getting better shooting from their role players than the Heat team that made it to the NBA Finals as an eighth seed.
How are the Pacers getting so much more out of their role players from beyond the arc than any other underdog of the 3-point era?
One explanation could be that their beautiful, movement-heavy offense is producing more good looks for their role players. After all, the better the shot, the better the chance that it falls.
When you compare the number of wide-open 3-point attempts for Indiana role players to those of the other underdog teams, you will see that this hypothesis does indeed stand the test of scrutiny.
This still doesn't explain, though, how the Pacers' role players are shooting way better on threes in the postseason despite attempting fewer open threes (14.3) than they did in the regular season (15.6, per NBA.com).
We could be looking at a classic case of Robert Horry Syndrome. Horry was famous for consistently elevating his play during the game's second season. Maybe the Pacers have a couple of his spiritual descendants on their roster?
Nesmith certainly looked like Big Shot Bob in his iconic Game 1 against the New York Knicks, and this is the second straight season where Nembhard has upped his 3-point % in the postseason.
Lastly, there is the argument that this could all be a byproduct of shooting variance. 3-point shooting is a very volatile statistic, and because of this, teams can get very lucky/unlucky from downtown in small sample sizes.
So, what is it? Is the Pacers' offense uniquely-designed to amplify its role players? Did they manage to accumulate a roster full of guys who were born with the clutch gene? Or are they just flat out lucky?
As any pluralist will tell you, the right answer is probably some mixture of the three. One thing can be said for certain, though, and that is that we've never seen a run to the NBA Finals quite like this one.