
Greasing the wheels of the energy transition to address climate change and fossil fuels phase out
The global energy system may be faced with an inescapable trade-off between urgently addressing climate change versus avoiding an energy shortfall, according to a new energy scenario tool developed by University of South Australia researchers and published in the open access journal Energies .
The Global Renewable Energy and Sectoral Electrification model, dubbed 'GREaSE', has been developed by UniSA Associate Professor James Hopeward with three civil engineering graduates.
'In essence, it's an exploratory tool, designed to be simple and easy for anyone to use, to test what-if scenarios that aren't covered by conventional energy and climate models,' Assoc Prof Hopeward says.
Three Honours students — Shannon O'Connor, Richard Davis and Peter Akiki — started working on the model in 2023, hoping to answer a critical gap in the energy and climate debate.
'When we hear about climate change, we're typically presented with two opposing scenario archetypes,' Assoc Prof Hopeward says.
'On the one hand, there are scenarios of unchecked growth in fossil fuels, leading to climate disaster, while on the other hand there are utopian scenarios of renewable energy abundance.'
The students posed the question: what if the more likely reality is somewhere in between the two extremes? And if it is, what might we be missing in terms of risks to people and the planet?
After graduating, the team continued to work with Assoc Prof Hopeward to develop and refine the model, culminating in the publication of 'GREaSE' in Energies .
Using the model, the researchers have simulated a range of plausible future scenarios including rapid curtailment of fossil fuels, high and low per-capita demand, and different scenarios of electrification.
According to Richard Davis, 'a striking similarity across scenarios is the inevitable transition to renewable energy — whether it's proactive to address carbon emissions, or reactive because fossil fuels start running short.'
But achieving the rapid cuts necessary to meet the 1.5°C targets set out in the Paris Agreement presents a serious challenge.
As Ms O'Connor points out, 'even with today's rapid expansion of renewable energy, the modelling suggests it can't expand fast enough to fill the gap left by the phase-out of fossil fuels, creating a 20 to 30-year gap between demand and supply.
'By 2050 or so, we could potentially expect renewable supply to catch up, meaning future demand could largely be met by renewables, but while we're building that new system, we might need to rebalance our expectations around how much energy we're going to have to power our economies.'
The modelling does not show that emissions targets should be abandoned in favour of scaling up fossil fuels. The researchers say this would 'push the transition a few more years down the road.'
Assoc Prof Hopeward says it is also unlikely that nuclear power could fill the gap, due to its small global potential.
'Even if the world's recoverable uranium resources were much larger, it would scale up even more slowly than renewables like solar and wind,' he says.
'We have to face facts: our long-term energy future is dominated by renewables. We could transition now and take the hit in terms of energy supply, or we could transition later, once we've burned the last of the fossil fuel. We would still have to deal with essentially the same transformation, just in the midst of potentially catastrophic climate change.
'It's a bit like being told by your doctor to eat healthier and start exercising. You've got the choice to avoid making the tough changes now, and just take your chances with surviving the heart attack later, or you get on with what you know you need to do. We would argue that we really need to put our global energy consumption on a diet, ASAP.'
The researchers have designed the model to be simple, free and open source, in the hope that it sparks a wider conversation around energy and climate futures.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Yahoo
May 2025 second warmest on record: EU climate monitor
Global heating persisted as the new norm, with last month the second warmest May on record on land and in the oceans, according to the European Union's climate monitoring service. The planet's average surface temperature dipped below the threshold of 1.5 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels, just shy of the record for May set last year, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The same held for the world's oceans. With a surface temperature of 20.79C, last month was second only to May 2024, with some unprecedented warmth regionally. "Large areas in the northeast North Atlantic, which experienced a marine heatwave, had record surface temperatures for the month," Copernicus reported. "Most of the Mediterranean Sea was much warmer than average." The increasingly dire state of the oceans is front-and-centre at the third UN Ocean Conference (UNOC), which kicked off Monday in Nice, France. Ocean heatwaves are driving marine species to migrate, decimating coral reefs, damaging ecosystems, and reducing the ability of ocean layers to mix, which hinders the distribution of nutrients. Covering 70 percent of the globe's surface, oceans redistribute heat and play a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Surface water warmed by climate change drive increasingly powerful storms, causing new levels of destruction and flooding in their wake. Some parts of Europe, meanwhile, "experienced their lowest levels of precipitation and soil moisture since at least 1979", Copernicus noted. Britain has been in the grips of its most intense drought in decades, with Denmark and the Netherlands also suffering from a lack of rain. Persistent dry conditions have also led to the lowest spring river flow across Europe since records began in 1992. - 'Brief respite' - Boreal forests across Canada, northern Europe and Siberia saw the second warmest spring on record, fuelling forest fires in Canada where two provinces declared a state of emergency. Ten days into June, more than 220 actives fires burned across the country, half of them classified as out-of-control. Earth's surface last month was 1.4C above the preindustrial benchmark, defined as the average temperature from 1850 to 1900, before the massive use of fossil fuels caused the climate to dramatically warm. "May 2025 interrupts an unprecedentedly long sequence of months above 1.5C," noted Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. All but one of the previous 22 months crossed this critical threshold, which marks the 2015 Paris Agreement's most ambitious target for capping global warming. "This may offer a brief respite for the planet, but we expect the 1.5C threshold to be exceeded again in the near future due to the continued warming of the climate system," he added. Over the 12-month period June 2024 to May 2025, warming averaged 1.57C compared to the 1850-1900 benchmark. The Paris treaty target, however, is pegged to a 20-year average, in order to account for the influence of natural variability. The UN's climate science advisory panel, the IPCC, has said there is a 50 percent chance of breaching the 1.5C barrier in line with these criteria between 2030 and 2035. Using this method of calculation, the world today has warmed by at least 1.3C. The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO), meanwhile, has said there is a 70 percent chance the five-year period 2025-2029, on average, will exceed the 1.5C limit. Scientists stress the importance of limiting global warming as soon and as much as possible because every fraction of a degree increases the risks of more deadly and destructive impacts, on land and in the sea. Limiting warming to 1.5C rather than 2C would significantly reduce the most catastrophic consequences, the IPCC concluded in a major report in 2018. jmi/mh/phz/giv
Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
Doctor mistakenly implants wrong embryo in IVF patient mix-up
One of Australia's top IVF providers mistakenly implanted a patient with her own embryo instead of her partner's. Monash IVF said the incident occurred on June 5 at a clinic in Melbourne but did not provide further details, such as how it learned of the bungle or what the couple planned to do next. The company said it was supporting the couple, who it did not identify. It marks the second fertility clinic mix-up of its kind in the country, heightening concerns about an industry that did not have much active government oversight until recently. The clinic said the patient's embryo was mistakenly implanted under a treatment plan which called for an embryo from the patient's partner to be transferred. The incident builds on a reputational maelstrom for Monash IVF, which was already reeling from an April disclosure that an Australian woman had given birth to a stranger's baby after a fertility doctor accidentally implanted the wrong embryo in Brisbane in 2023. That mix-up sparked concerns about security protocols at IVF clinics and an industry which is only now in the process of being more regulated. Monash claimed the world's first IVF pregnancy five decades ago and is Australia's second-largest IVF provider, carrying out nearly a quarter of the country's 100,000 assisted reproductive cycles a year, according to industry data. "This mix-up, the second reported incident at Monash IVF, risks shaking confidence not just in one provider but across the entire fertility sector," said Hilary Bowman-Smart, a researcher and bioethicist at the University of South Australia. Shares of Monash IVF were down 25 per cent by mid-session on Tuesday, against a rising broader market. The stock is just over half its value before the April announcement. "We had thought the Brisbane clinic embryo transfer error was an isolated incident," Craig Wong-Pan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said in a client note. "We believe there is now risk of a greater impact of reputational damage and market share losses to MVF's operations." Monash IVF had already hired a lawyer to run an independent investigation after the Brisbane incident, and said on Tuesday it has extended the scope of that investigation. It added that it was installing interim extra verification safeguards to ensure patient confidence. It said it had reported the Melbourne incident to the Victorian Department of Health and industry licensing body, the Reproductive Technology Accreditation Committee (RTAC), part of industry group the Fertility Society of Australia. Victorian health minister Mary-Anne Thomas said the department was investigating the company and the incident. "Families should have confidence that the treatment they are receiving is done to the highest standard," she said. "It is clear Monash IVF has failed to deliver that, which is completely unacceptable." Fertility Society president Petra Wale said the incident would have had an emotional toll on the family, but stressed mistakes in the sector were rare. The society reiterated a call to implement nationally consistent laws around IVF. Currently, the country's IVF industry is regulated by a combination of industry bodies and state and territory health departments, resulting in a governance and compliance system that some groups say is too complex. Reports of transferring the wrong embryo are rare, according to fertility experts, and Monash's Brisbane mix-up was widely reported as the first known case of its kind.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
Residents endure brutal conditions as record-breaking temperatures soar to 125 degrees: 'Extremely vulnerable'
May sizzled in the Middle East as the United Arab Emirates set back-to-back records for heat. The mercury climbed to an incredible 51.6 degrees Celsius (nearly 125 degrees Fahrenheit) on May 24 in Sweihan, a town in the Al Ain Region of the United Arab Emirates, according to an AFP report. It was only about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit lower than the hottest temperature recorded in the UAE since tracking began in 2003. The temperature of 51.6 degrees Celsius in Sweihan and a measurement of 50.4 degrees Celsius (about 122.7 degrees Fahrenheit) in Abu Dhabi a day earlier both eclipsed the previous UAE record for May of 50.2 degrees Celsius (about 122.4 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the AFP report, which contains meteorology office information. It's been a brutal year for extreme temperatures in the Middle East. The UAE also reported an average daily high of 42.6 degrees Celsius (about 109 degrees Fahrenheit) in April, a new record for the month. A 2022 Greenpeace report titled "Living on the Edge" warned of the dangerous impact extreme heat would have on six countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. That report said the region was "extremely vulnerable" to the effects of an overheating planet, per Individual temperature records do not indicate a trend on their own, but taken in the broader context of average warming over time, they can highlight a larger concern. A recently released World Meteorological Organization report has forecasted continuing record-high global temperatures. "There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024)," the report noted. "And there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level." This underscores how close the world is to breaching — at least for a single-year average — the long-term 1.5-degree Celsius target limit for warming established by the Paris Agreement, a global pact of 195 nations. The WMO's warning shouldn't surprise anyone, since Earth has been running a fever for over a decade. Last year added to a streak: Each of the last 11 years ranks among the hottest ever recorded, and since only 2012, the U.S. has seen its eight warmest years, as Climate Central reported. As NASA noted, "Scientific evidence continues to show that human activities (primarily the human burning of fossil fuels) have warmed Earth's surface and its ocean basins, which in turn have continued to impact Earth's climate." Therefore, one way to try to avoid the worst effects of extreme heat is to seek alternatives to burning fuels for energy. Do you think your city has good air quality? Definitely Somewhat Depends on the time of year Not at all Click your choice to see results and speak your mind. There have been promising new developments in the solar industry. For example, scientists in Japan have developed an all-organic material that could revolutionize solar panels — they are working on making solar panels not only more efficient, but also more eco-friendly. An international team of scientists is also collaborating to pave the way for more efficient thin-film solar panel technology. Thin film solar has been described as "the future of the solar industry" by the American Solar Energy Society because it's cheaper to make, uses fewer materials, and is easy to manufacture. Installing solar panels with a battery can help protect your home against blackouts and extreme weather while slashing your dependence on dirty energy — and in many cases, reducing your energy bill to nearly zero. With EnergySage, you can compare trusted installers and save up to $10,000 on solar installation. Embracing renewable energy sources like solar can help cool our planet by curbing harmful carbon pollution. Other ways to help the world and your wallet include replacing an old HVAC system with a heat pump and opting for an induction stove instead of a conventional range. Join our free newsletter for good news and useful tips, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.