The Tasmanian seats which could deliver, or deny, electoral victory

Australia Broadcast Center

02-05-2025

As the smallest state, Tasmania only has five seats in the House of Representatives.
And experts say one of those, the Hobart-based seat of Clark, is likely to be won easily by independent Andrew Wilkie.
Leaving four in play to varying degrees.
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Both major parties are looking to hold onto their existing seats and maybe flip one or two.
But they've got their challenges.
The Liberals are up against some high-profile names, while Labor, political research organisation RedBridge's analyst Kos Samaras explains, has to deal with its declining primary vote in central and northern Tasmania.
"It's a historical trend and I don't think they're going to reverse it at this election," Mr Samaras says.
Independents and minor parties will also have a role to play, even if they don't score seats.
"There will be a very significant One Nation vote, I suspect, in Franklin, Braddon and Bass," Mr Samaras said.
"That could be a really considerable telling factor, when you consider that preference flows from One Nation will be slightly higher per the norm in a place like Tasmania than, for example, metropolitan Melbourne."
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Bass
is one of two very marginal seats in Tasmania, taking in Launceston and the state's north-east.
It's a seat notorious for turfing out sitting MPs.
The incumbent, the Liberals'
Bridget Archer,
is only the second MP to win the seat for a second term in about 20 years.
It's traditionally been a little more Liberal leaning, although the only other MP to claim the mantle of keeping Bass recently is Labor's Michelle O'Byrne.
Prediction
Mr Samaras thinks despite the slim margin, Labor candidate
Jess Teesdale's
task of unseating Ms Archer won't be easy.
"I know some in the Labor Party are saying they could pick up Bass, but that is going to be pretty difficult given the incumbent MP," he said.
"We go back to that sort of parochial, local name identity, she's an incredibly popular, well-known MP in that part of Tassie."
RedBridge Group's Tony Barry agrees.
"She has very high favourable numbers in our research and strong re-elect figures, reflecting her performance as a local MP," he said.
"
However Bass is one of those seats where voters don't hesitate to flip parties.
"
Braddon
takes in the state's north west, the west coast (home to the fish farms of Macquarie Harbour) and King Island.
It's another seat that likes to kick out its sitting MPs, although the Liberals have held it for the past two elections.
While it's not marginal, the retirement of the Liberals'
Gavin Pearce
means there's no incumbent, leaving the race a little more open.
In recent times, the electorate has found itself at the heart of a battle between environmentalists and salmon workers.
Prediction
Mr Barry said the salmon farming issue — both the environment minister's perceived indecision regarding a review of the expansion at Macquarie Harbour and its last-ditch effort to amend national environment laws to try to protect the industry's future — could play into the vote.
"There is a collective understanding these are all vital jobs these industries and Tasmania is acutely sensitive to losing, jobs and industries that provide economic input into the state,"
Mr Barry said.
"The issue of salmon farming has had a massive impact. Not just locally, but throughout the state, because they also see it as an attack on them by Canberra.
"Notwithstanding the government trying to clean it up, the legacy message from that is that potentially the federal government is not on our side."
Mr Samaras said former Labor Senator
Anne Urquhart's
profile will boost her chances against the Liberals'
Mal Hingston.
"We do know that in Tassie that local name recognition is far more profound and important, and she obviously does carry a lot of years of service down there, so it's not surprising they know her,"
he said.
"But I do think Albanese's strategy with regards to the salmon farming issue is all about securing those two seats [Braddon and Lyons] and I think he's actually got the tone right."
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The inner-city electorate of Clark covers metropolitan Hobart.
For 20 years, it was held by Labor, until Independent
Andrew Wilkie
won it in 2010.
He now holds the seat on a margin of 20 per cent.
Prediction
With such a large margin, Mr Wilkie is expected to retain his seat.
Franklin stretches from Hobart's eastern shore to the Huon Valley, taking in Bruny Island along the way.
The electorate has long been a Labor stronghold, with incumbent
Julie Collins
winning it for the past six elections.
It's another electorate where the salmon farming issue may play into the vote.
The widely circulated pictures of fat globules washing up on south-eastern Tasmanian beaches are from Franklin, but it's also home to many salmon workers and their families.
Prediction
Mr Samaras said he thinks Labor will be able to hold onto the seat.
"There is Independent [
Peter George
] running on an issue that will be popular amongst Tasmanians who are obviously passionate about the environmental issue, but I think those Tasmanians will be outnumbered by those who are more concerned about protecting local jobs and supporting the Labor Party," he said.
However, the Greens' candidate Owen Fitzgerald threw a curveball after falling foul of dual citizen laws.
"That could definitely impact on inflating the independent vote," he said.
"If that independent jumps the Liberal party, we might be having a different conversation.
"It's a possibility, I wouldn't rule it out."
Lyons runs from the north of the state into the south, almost touching Hobart.
There is a very clear north-south divide when it comes to support for the major parties, with the Liberals generally doing better in the north of Tasmania and Labor in the south.
Labor holds the seat on the slimmest of margins, with the Liberals'
Susie Bower
very close to snatching it off them last election.
The incumbent Labor MP
Brian Mitchell
resigned to make way for someone even he described as a stronger candidate, former state Labor leader
Rebecca White
.
Prediction
While they believe Labor will perform well in the south, Mr Samaras isn't sure if that will translate to Lyons.
However, he said name recognition will help Ms White and that she is a very strong chance in Lyons.
Psephologist Kevin Bonham told ABC Northern Tasmania Drive "the general vibe" is Ms White should retain the seat.
"We don't really know. There hasn't been a lot of seat-specific polling there of any quality," he said.
The Senate:
Senators up for re-election:
Richard Colbeck
and
Claire Chandler
(Liberal)
Carol Brown
(Labor)
Jacqui Lambie
(Jacqui Lambie Network)
Nick McKim
(Greens)
Retiring:
Catryna Bilyk
(Labor)
Prediction
There are some hungry newcomers vying for spots, but experts say it's likely to remain the same — two Labor, two Liberals, Greens Nick McKim and Jacqui Lambie.
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