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ABC News
02-05-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
The Tasmanian seats which could deliver, or deny, electoral victory
As the smallest state, Tasmania only has five seats in the House of Representatives. And experts say one of those, the Hobart-based seat of Clark, is likely to be won easily by independent Andrew Wilkie. Leaving four in play to varying degrees. Election essentials: Find out where your Both major parties are looking to hold onto their existing seats and maybe flip one or two. But they've got their challenges. The Liberals are up against some high-profile names, while Labor, political research organisation RedBridge's analyst Kos Samaras explains, has to deal with its declining primary vote in central and northern Tasmania. "It's a historical trend and I don't think they're going to reverse it at this election," Mr Samaras says. Independents and minor parties will also have a role to play, even if they don't score seats. "There will be a very significant One Nation vote, I suspect, in Franklin, Braddon and Bass," Mr Samaras said. "That could be a really considerable telling factor, when you consider that preference flows from One Nation will be slightly higher per the norm in a place like Tasmania than, for example, metropolitan Melbourne." Check out your seat Bass is one of two very marginal seats in Tasmania, taking in Launceston and the state's north-east. It's a seat notorious for turfing out sitting MPs. The incumbent, the Liberals' Bridget Archer, is only the second MP to win the seat for a second term in about 20 years. It's traditionally been a little more Liberal leaning, although the only other MP to claim the mantle of keeping Bass recently is Labor's Michelle O'Byrne. Prediction Mr Samaras thinks despite the slim margin, Labor candidate Jess Teesdale's task of unseating Ms Archer won't be easy. "I know some in the Labor Party are saying they could pick up Bass, but that is going to be pretty difficult given the incumbent MP," he said. "We go back to that sort of parochial, local name identity, she's an incredibly popular, well-known MP in that part of Tassie." RedBridge Group's Tony Barry agrees. "She has very high favourable numbers in our research and strong re-elect figures, reflecting her performance as a local MP," he said. " However Bass is one of those seats where voters don't hesitate to flip parties. " Braddon takes in the state's north west, the west coast (home to the fish farms of Macquarie Harbour) and King Island. It's another seat that likes to kick out its sitting MPs, although the Liberals have held it for the past two elections. While it's not marginal, the retirement of the Liberals' Gavin Pearce means there's no incumbent, leaving the race a little more open. In recent times, the electorate has found itself at the heart of a battle between environmentalists and salmon workers. Prediction Mr Barry said the salmon farming issue — both the environment minister's perceived indecision regarding a review of the expansion at Macquarie Harbour and its last-ditch effort to amend national environment laws to try to protect the industry's future — could play into the vote. "There is a collective understanding these are all vital jobs these industries and Tasmania is acutely sensitive to losing, jobs and industries that provide economic input into the state," Mr Barry said. "The issue of salmon farming has had a massive impact. Not just locally, but throughout the state, because they also see it as an attack on them by Canberra. "Notwithstanding the government trying to clean it up, the legacy message from that is that potentially the federal government is not on our side." Mr Samaras said former Labor Senator Anne Urquhart's profile will boost her chances against the Liberals' Mal Hingston. "We do know that in Tassie that local name recognition is far more profound and important, and she obviously does carry a lot of years of service down there, so it's not surprising they know her," he said. "But I do think Albanese's strategy with regards to the salmon farming issue is all about securing those two seats [Braddon and Lyons] and I think he's actually got the tone right." Read more about the federal election: Want even more? Here's where you can find all our 2025 Catch the latest interviews and in-depth coverage on The inner-city electorate of Clark covers metropolitan Hobart. For 20 years, it was held by Labor, until Independent Andrew Wilkie won it in 2010. He now holds the seat on a margin of 20 per cent. Prediction With such a large margin, Mr Wilkie is expected to retain his seat. Franklin stretches from Hobart's eastern shore to the Huon Valley, taking in Bruny Island along the way. The electorate has long been a Labor stronghold, with incumbent Julie Collins winning it for the past six elections. It's another electorate where the salmon farming issue may play into the vote. The widely circulated pictures of fat globules washing up on south-eastern Tasmanian beaches are from Franklin, but it's also home to many salmon workers and their families. Prediction Mr Samaras said he thinks Labor will be able to hold onto the seat. "There is Independent [ Peter George ] running on an issue that will be popular amongst Tasmanians who are obviously passionate about the environmental issue, but I think those Tasmanians will be outnumbered by those who are more concerned about protecting local jobs and supporting the Labor Party," he said. However, the Greens' candidate Owen Fitzgerald threw a curveball after falling foul of dual citizen laws. "That could definitely impact on inflating the independent vote," he said. "If that independent jumps the Liberal party, we might be having a different conversation. "It's a possibility, I wouldn't rule it out." Lyons runs from the north of the state into the south, almost touching Hobart. There is a very clear north-south divide when it comes to support for the major parties, with the Liberals generally doing better in the north of Tasmania and Labor in the south. Labor holds the seat on the slimmest of margins, with the Liberals' Susie Bower very close to snatching it off them last election. The incumbent Labor MP Brian Mitchell resigned to make way for someone even he described as a stronger candidate, former state Labor leader Rebecca White . Prediction While they believe Labor will perform well in the south, Mr Samaras isn't sure if that will translate to Lyons. However, he said name recognition will help Ms White and that she is a very strong chance in Lyons. Psephologist Kevin Bonham told ABC Northern Tasmania Drive "the general vibe" is Ms White should retain the seat. "We don't really know. There hasn't been a lot of seat-specific polling there of any quality," he said. The Senate: Senators up for re-election: Richard Colbeck and Claire Chandler (Liberal) Carol Brown (Labor) Jacqui Lambie (Jacqui Lambie Network) Nick McKim (Greens) Retiring: Catryna Bilyk (Labor) Prediction There are some hungry newcomers vying for spots, but experts say it's likely to remain the same — two Labor, two Liberals, Greens Nick McKim and Jacqui Lambie. Loading
The Guardian
01-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Preferences are more important than ever this election. See where Australian voters sent theirs last time
Preferences have become more important than ever in Australian elections, as the share of people supporting the major parties has dropped from more than 90% of primary votes in the 1950s to just 68.8% in the most recent federal poll. The last Australian election saw 16 seats won by candidates who were not leading after the first count – the most ever, tied with 2016. And more than half of those winners were independent candidates – also the most ever. Australia's electoral system requires voters to number candidates in their order of preference: their first choice, second choice and so on. During counting, if no candidate has yet achieved a majority, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to voters' next preference. This is repeated until there is a clear winner. Because of this, voter preferences are a bigger deal in some seats. Who do One Nation or Trumpet of Patriots (the successor to the United Australia party) voters prefer when their candidate does not make it? In the last election, there were only 27 out of 151 seats where Labor and the Coalition were not the final two candidates. So at the macro level, most preferences are likely to end up with one of these two parties. The chart above shows that last time, 86% of Greens voter preferences ended up with a Labor candidate. And 62% of UAP voter preferences ended up with the Coalition. But diving into preferences at the seat level, we see that the way preferences actually flow during the counts can defy simple left-right characterisations – it often has a lot to do with individual candidates, or how deep they continue into the ballot count. (Preferences only come into effect when a candidate is eliminated.) Sign up for the Afternoon Update: Election 2025 email newsletter There were eight seats where the Coalition was not in the final two candidates, and just over half of Coalition voter preferences went to the Labor party. But Labor candidates were also finalists in all those seats. In the cases of Fowler and Melbourne, Coalition voter preferences differed greatly depending on the combination of the final two candidates. Six of the seats where the Coalition was not in the final count pitched Greens against Labor. The other two saw Labor face off against an independent candidate – Dai Le in Fowler and Andrew Wilkie in Clark. Almost half of Labor preferences ended up going to an independent candidate. But again, it depended on who the final candidates were. There were 19 seats where Labor was not in the final count. These seats included sitting MPs Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo and Bob Katter in Kennedy, both against the Coalition, as well as a few Greens v Coalition contests. In 14 of those seats, the final count came down to the Coalition against an independent, including the seats where 'teal' independents were elected. Sign up to Afternoon Update: Election 2025 Our Australian afternoon update breaks down the key election campaign stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion It is important to note that parties do not decide where preferences go – voters do. Parties can, however, hand out how-to-vote cards with their preferred vote order, which voters can follow if they choose. A lot of minor parties do not run in every seat, making these kinds of comparisons more complex. But we can see another discrepancy by comparing 2022 preference flows for One Nation, the United Australia party, and the Greens. The following charts aren't seat-specific – they aggregate across all the seats where the parties ran but did not end up in the final count. There were nine seats in total where the Greens made it into the final count, but One Nation and UAP candidates were often eliminated earlier. In seats such as Deakin and Corangamite, more than 60% of One Nation preferences went to UAP, but the preferences ultimately went to another party in the final count. You can explore every seat in the interactive below. This final graphic is slightly different again: rather than showing where preferences ended up in the final count, it shows where votes went in the count after a candidate was eliminated. If you click through the candidates in each seat, you can see that options start to dwindle in later counts. A voter whose preference is candidate B over candidate C, won't have that option if candidate B has already been eliminated. Thanks to Ben Raue for looking at a draft of this story. Any errors remain the author's.
