Trump's MAGA base defies conservative pro-Israel doctrine
Images of starvation and suffering in Gaza have given new impetus to a debate that has been simmering in Trump's "MAGA" movement over whether US involvement in the Middle East is consistent with the president's "America First" platform.
Trump's first significant break with Israel came on Monday, when he acknowledged that "real starvation" is happening in Gaza and vowed to set up food centres in the besieged enclave, which has been devastated by Israel's war with Hamas.
Asked if he agreed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's denials of the Gaza hunger crisis, Trump said: "Based on television, I would say not particularly, because those children look very hungry."
It was a notable retort and prompted commentators to speculate that unwavering US support for Israel might end up as just another conservative sacred cow slayed by MAGA.
Vice-President J.D. Vance went further at an event in Ohio, discussing "heartbreaking" images of "little kids who are clearly starving to death" and demanding that Israel let in more aid.
Political scientist and former US diplomat Michael Montgomery thinks the tonal shift might in part be emotional — with TV images of starving children resonating more profoundly than the aftermath of air strikes.
"Perhaps it is because no civilised people see starvation as a legitimate weapon of war," the University of Michigan-Dearborn professor said.
Israel has always enjoyed broad bipartisan support in Congress but the rise of the isolationist MAGA movement under Trump has challenged the ideological foundations of the "special relationship."
MAGA realpolitik seeks to limit US involvement in foreign wars to those that directly impact its interests, and in particular the "left behind" working class that makes up Trump's base.
Pro-Trump think tank The Heritage Foundation in March called on Washington to "re-orient its relationship with Israel" from a special relationship "to an equal strategic partnership".
Stronger expressions of disapproval have been subdued by a sense that they are a betrayal of Republican thinking, according to some analysts, especially after the Oct 7 Hamas attacks.
But there is a new urgency in the debate in MAGA circles following dire warnings from leading NGOs and the UN World Food Programme's finding that a third of Gaza's population — of about two million — go for days without eating.
One sign of the new thinking came in an X post from far-right firebrand congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has pushed to cancel US$500 million in funding for Israel's rocket defence system.
Greene this week went further than any Republican lawmaker has previously in using the word "genocide" to describe Israel's conduct and slamming the "starvation of innocent people and children in Gaza".
While Greene's credibility has been undermined by an extensive record of conspiratorial social media posts, there is no denying that she knows what makes the MAGA crowd tick.
A new CNN poll found the share of Republicans who believe Israel's actions have been fully justified has dropped from 68 per cent in 2023 to 52 per cent.
Youth seems to be the driver, according to a Pew Research poll from April, when food shortages had yet to become a humanitarian catastrophe.
While Republicans over age 50 haven't changed much in their pro-Israel outlook since 2022, the survey showed that the US ally's unfavourability among younger adults has climbed from 35 per cent to 50 per cent.
"It seems that for the under-30-year-old MAGA base, Israel has almost no support," former White House strategist Steve Bannon told Politico, adding that Trump's rebuke would solidify his supporters' enmity.
Democratic strategist Mike Nellis described the Gaza food emergency as "one of those rare moments where the crisis has broken through the usual partisan gridlock".
"You're seeing people across the political spectrum who just can't stomach it anymore," he said.
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